JCT777 Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Well...taking an average of the 12z model suite, I'd say Philly and the immediate suburbs are looking at 3 to 5 inches of snow followed by light zr and/or light rain. Surface temps look to stay below 40 on Sunday (highs in the 34 to 38 range). Not bad at this point. Let's hope the next few model runs are pretty close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This may end up sheared out to the south. huge shift in 24 hours, though not surprising as it is really following the trend of the winter. Good news is that the heavy rain threat, is pretty much off of the table imo. I think 3-6 inches is a good first guess for the entire area. I don't see this giving more snow than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Am I to assume a quick flip to rain for coastal areas as we do poorly in these setups? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ice? I haven't heard it refered to as this before. That's some where between the sweet spot (snow) and the mud (rain) right?... It's becuase it taint rain and it taint snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Am I to assume a quick flip to rain for coastal areas as we do poorly in these setups? Thanks. I think that's a fair assumption at this point for your area. However things keep trending toward more sheared out and further south you may have a chance for a brief period of snow. Those SW winds off the bay should keep you toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think that's a fair assumption at this point for your area. However things keep trending toward more sheared out and further south you may have a chance for a brief period of snow. Those SW winds off the bat should keep you toasty. Thanks, I think this is not set in stone yet. Was hoping to maintain or at least break even with the amount of snow on the ground now through Monday. Looks doubtful at this point. I think we all see something nice next week during the reload of cold. Even an amped up clipper would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z ECM is a hit for SEPA all snow Not all snow, but a good thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Is that random 15" spot in WV the same area that's been having the strange pressure change readings the last week or so? Thinking someone might need to go out in the cold and give the equipment a good kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakmsg Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Taint would be anything that isn't snow anymore as mid levels warm. "It taint snow" lol that's not exactly the definition I recall............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 that's not exactly the definition I recall............. I would think it means that "pure snow" is "tainted" with sleet or mixed precipitation. Could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Glenn at 4:25pm: (Arrival/Changeover time/Amounts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I got NAM'd on the 18z with 12" unless there is a warm layer up here kiss of death right there ***yeah warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I got NAM'd on the 18z with 12" unless there is a warm layer up here kiss of death right there ***yeah warm layer No way 12" will happen. A couple/several inches may happen in your area then a changeover of some sort. Precip totals aren't there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Latest Wxsim program for NW Chester County with 18z GFS/NAM blend Saturday Light Snow arrives by 1am temp17.7 4pm Moderate Snow temp 20.2 (0.5" snow) 7pm S+ 20.6 (1.6") 10pm S+ 22.6 (3.8") 1am Heavy IP and snow temp 25.5 (5.8" snow/IP) 4am IP/ZR temp 28.1 7am AR 29.3 10am precip winding down temp 31.3 (total liquid equiv 1.05") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Latest Wxsim program for NW Chester County with 18z GFS/NAM blend Saturday Light Snow arrives by 1am temp17.7 4pm Moderate Snow temp 20.2 (0.5" snow) 7pm S+ 20.6 (1.6") 10pm S+ 22.6 (3.8") 1am Heavy IP and snow temp 25.5 (5.8" snow/IP) 4am IP/ZR temp 28.1 7am AR 29.3 10am precip winding down temp 31.3 (total liquid equiv 1.05") I've been following your Wxsim forecasts but don't recall AR before. What does it stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We been thumped by the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I've been following your Wxsim forecasts but don't recall AR before. What does it stand for?Z and A are dangerously close to one another on the keyboard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We been thumped by the NAM Am I right seeing over 1" qpf almost if not all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 5-6" most of SEPA and 8" on Kamu's snow pile this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Am I right seeing over 1" qpf almost if not all snow? No some rain and taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well, the NAM certainly shows a pretty good snowfall before the changeover. This may be a good thump and then some rain once it changes over Saturday night. Looks like 8 to 10 inches for eastern PA and perhaps just about 6 inches worth over western sections of South Jersey. Anyway, its the NAM, so let's see how the 00z guidance goes. This could very well be a situation where, we get a good thump, but the key here is how fast the precip gets in. The longer it takes, the more things can warm up. Its really a race for the precip to get in sooner before things warm up Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Booyah‼️‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Early to jump to conclusions but this one might be our area wide big storm of the winter, trending at the right time to thread the old needle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm liking where I sit for this one. Which is reason enough to believe this isn't going to be close to the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Early to jump to conclusions but this one might be our area wide big storm of the winter, trending at the right time to thread the old needle?I think the weaker and further south trend will help... Less precip but I think more snow 4-6+ region wide. May be light rain drizzle at the end. Don't mid those kind of storms. Still not a very confident forecast, just basing it on seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No some rain and taint I was looking at the precip. output map. There must be a fair amount of rain if the snow total is 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 nam_namer_066_precip_p36.gif I was looking at the precip. output map. There must be a fair amount of rain if the snow total is 5-6". nam_namer_066_precip_p36.gif North of I78 its majority snow but qpf is lighter, SEPA on the NAM will go over to mix and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I had a feeling the nam was going to beef up the qpf with such strong waa. the gfs will probably follow suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res NAM lolipops 8" in a large portion of SEPA Baltimore to DC 10", an area that was going to be all rain and had no chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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