JCT777 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Let's discuss the potential weekend of 2/21 - 2/22 event. Could be a decent snow event even if it changes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 12Z GFS has snow moving in Saturday night, changing to rain early Sunday morning, rain all day Sunday with a change back to snow early Monday morning before ending. Plenty of times for a more southerly track or no storm at all. Like this last storm, I'm going to stay optomistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yup, the potential is there. Lots of time to work out the details. There is the departing strong/cold high pressure as the storm is arriving and then another incoming strong/cold high pressure as it is departing. Timing and strength of the storm will determine whether it can cut west/north of our area or not. Would currently favor more wintry than wet, at least in the northern part of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 John storm thread?? Nice! Euro really warms this hit after snow. Looks wired. Probably the euro acting like the new euro we don't trust as much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 18Z GFS similar to 12Z but 32F line even further north. Nothing positive in this run. Could be bad for parts of New England if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 0Z GFS is a repeat of the 18Z run. Saturday night some snow then rain Sunday. Three straight runs with the same outcome. By the way, if someone would like to add further details I'm sure some would appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GGEM is actually more like 4-6 inch thump..definitely colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS is only 1-2 inches of snow for most of the area FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro is a 2-4 inch thump to rain solution. 2-4 inches then .5+" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 still time to change but the consensus tonight is front end thump 2-4" area wide then heavy rain. would be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS warm, GGEM colder. EC seems to side more with the GFS, torches the low levels. Won't quite buy that til Friday at least, maybe not Saturday, given the antecedant airmass. It certainly has happened before though (1/27/1994, lows near zero, then 50s on 1/28/1994 all the way to Allentown). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Now we get the decent QPF. No haggling over which run is .03 wetter or drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 While the GGEM is colder than the GFS, the 0Z GGEM run trended warmer from yesterday's 12z...it moved the slp about 75 miles NW. Still has a decent front end thump, while the GFS barely has one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Seems all the models agree we are going to rain Sunday. Question now is how much snow pack do we lose. Since my 'big' 51/4" snow on Jan 23 I have not lost the snow cover which is nice. Sort of reminds me of last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is what happens when I start a discussion thread for a storm... There is still time for this to end up colder and less rainy, but that trend needs to start happening pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is what happens when I start a discussion thread for a storm... There is still time for this to end up colder and less rainy, but that trend needs to start happening pretty soon. This potential event never really had a great chance. It seems like it's getting more discouraging every model run. Maybe a little at the beginning then a low - mid 40's rain Sunday. Such is life... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Don't get too down JCT777, the best opportunity is with the event after this one. I think we're going to get into some MIller B fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Don't get too down JCT777, the best opportunity is with the event after this one. I think we're going to get into some MIller B fun. don't put your eggs in the Miller B basket this winter unless you are in New England. You of all people should know that by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Don't get too down JCT777, the best opportunity is with the event after this one. I think we're going to get into some MIller B fun. Next week's threat actually looks like a Miller A on the 6z GFS, which would be a better setup for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS is quicker/more amplified. 1-2" of snow tops then mostly rain. A lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro super amped up at 84 hours... also cutting much further west. Looking more and more wet as we trend closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro super amped up at 84 hours... also cutting much further west. Looking more and more wet as we trend closer to the event. I'm hoping that it does cut and deliver a gush of warm air up to Greenland and create a block for the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 don't put your eggs in the Miller B basket this winter unless you are in New England. You of all people should know that by now. There were some model runs a day or two ago that had nice front-end thumps before mix/rain. Was hoping that would be closer to the outcome vs. a touch of snow and then 90% (or more) rain. Looks like it will be the latter. Such is life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 There were some model runs a day or two ago that had nice front-end thumps before mix/rain. Was hoping that would be closer to the outcome vs. a touch of snow and then 90% (or more) rain. Looks like it will be the latter. Such is life. [/quote} This has been a consistent theme this winter without exception. We start off with the 'looks great at D9-10' and by the time we get to the event it's either a whiff or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 18z GFS looking different, weak wave resulting in snow rain snow. Who knows what it will show in two days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 18z GFS looking different, weak wave resulting in snow rain snow. Who knows what it will show in two days Still a lot of rain in that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Rain + icebergs does not sound good for areas that flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Fwiw, the last 3 runs of the GFS have improved the front end thump at least :-).... ETA: Make that 4 now, with the 0z run for 2/19... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 0z Dr No says no rainstorm lol... who knows by friday it could be DC's event gotta love this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 0z Dr No says no rainstorm lol... who knows by friday it could be DC's event gotta love this winter??? Explain..Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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