Snowstorms Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 No real changes on the 0z GFS when compared to the 18z. Maybe slightly more robust in the cold sector, but nothing noteworthy. Though based on the 500mb vort maps, the northern stream is digging a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 0z GFS remains rather weak. Decent enough for here though, somewhere in the 3-5" range. Beats 34˚ and rain anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 0z GFS remains rather weak. Decent enough for here though, somewhere in the 3-5" range. Beats 34˚ and rain anyways. Still nervous about a north shift in the future. One thing's for sure, don't want to be riding the edge as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Still nervous about a north shift in the future. One thing's for sure, don't want to be riding the edge as we get closer. Of course. I give the GFS zero credence unless the other better/good models agree. That remains to be seen. And, I need to see it 6-12 hours out from go-time to truly believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just looking at water vapor over Alaska, the piece of energy associated with the storm is west of Anchorage, it also looks pretty vigorous on water vapor. That being said it also should have been sampled by 00z model runs unless it passed between RAOB sites which is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Interesting to see if the UKIE, or especially the GGEM, blink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Still nervous about a north shift in the future. One thing's for sure, don't want to be riding the edge as we get closer. I don't know how much further north it can go. Notice on the H5 maps how strong the NW flow is coming down from Canada NW of North Dakota. I wouldn't be surprised if it moved slightly south of where it is now, having said that I think the solution is pretty muck locked into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 0z GGEM through 84 definitely looks like it's backing off its super amped solution. No surprise there I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 UKMET almost lost the storm entirely. Opens back up into a wave by 12z Sat. already. Looks like a strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 How exactly is the RAOB network "trashed" right now? And how is the UKMET's network different from the GFS's? Is the UK also taking soundings over North America that I wasn't aware of? Angrysummons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 0z GGEM as mentioned earlier is a bit weaker and further south, however its still a good hit for Detroit, Northern Illinois and Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I am talking in general for the winter. Nor does a burp change that. What do you mean by trashed? How many more soundings does the UKMET ingest over the CONUS than the GFS does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 that is because of the way the energy is sampled. A weak sheared out pos is going to look different than a pumped up s/w. I would imagine that pos means piece of s**t . In other worlds you don't think that strung out energy over CO is real? And how are we going to get a pumped short wave? Are you hinting that the H5 vortex over the Hudson Bay is to far east and that in reality it drops to the SW causing a bit a phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just looking at water vapor over Alaska, the piece of energy associated with the storm is west of Anchorage, it also looks pretty vigorous on water vapor. That being said it also should have been sampled by 00z model runs unless it passed between RAOB sites which is very possible. Tomorrow nights 00z run should have partial of it atleast ( thus when the models bring the vort energy into the pac nw ) and thus Fridays 12z should have it fully sampled.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The s/w is what generates the phasing and phases with the Hudson Bay vortex. If it "looks" to far east, that is because the pac energy isn't getting the job done. Ok I get it. Do you think the models are wrong with the Pacific energy? Not to argue, just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think a modestly more amped GFS run probably is the way to go. The GGEM looks overamped. I don't think enough energy breaks off from the main source to trigger a real big phase. I agree. There is no way the Pacific can help out with this one. The - EPO is still to strong and will hold the Hudson Bay Vortex at bay. That leads me to think that a more strung out system makes sense. I also took a look at the 850mb winds a couple of hours ago off the gfs, and if I remember right the moisture transport is over the southern OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 00z EURO very GFS-like. I'll take 3-4" of snow to freshen things up. Still a lot can change given the sampling issues mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Everyone seems to be on the same page: LATEST RUNS SHOW A LESS IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONTINUITY IS LACKING SO AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT. THE PARENT WAVE THAT WILL DRIVE ALL OF THIS IS STILL OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND SHOULD BE ONSHORE BY THIS EVENING FOR BETTER RAOB SAMPLING. AT THIS POINT - per LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good riddance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 those calls for a further north low due to poor sampling look in jeopardy. I'd suspect by now, only 36 hours out before it moves into the southern plains, we'd start to see a trend towards stronger if it were to happen, instead the trend is opposite that. 12z nam might barely graze us forum southerners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 What a lovely 500 mile south shift in the span of 3 model runs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Such an awful season for storm tracking. Ugh!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 What a lovely 500 mile south shift in the span of 3 model runs lol. yup unreal. Solutions 3 and 4 days out have zero cred this year. We've seen it over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Even the best at WPC are having problems figuring out the solutions CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO ANDTENNESSEE VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST...A RATHER COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SITUATION FOR A FAIRLY LARGE SWATHOF THE NATION WILL BE SETTING UP EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON DAYS 2 TO3/FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROMTHE WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE ROCKIES WHILE A DEEP UPPER LOWNEAR HUDSON BAY APPEARS TO MODULATE HOW SHORTWAVE IMPULSES STREAMEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.WITHIN THIS VERY FAST MOVING FLOW...THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A RANGEOF MODEL SOLUTIONS AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD CALLED FOR WHATAPPEARED TO BE A POSSIBLE RAPID WARMUP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OHIOVALLEY TO EAST COAST...BUT NOT APPEARS TO INVOLVE A FLATTER MOREPROGRESSIVE SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARM UP QUITE SO MUCH.IN ADDITION...AN INITIALLY VERY COLD ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE OFF THEEAST COAST AND WHILE ITS APPEARANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WARM UP ISLIKELY...THE COMBINATION OF A FASTER/WEAKER SYSTEM AND THE FACTTHAT SO MUCH SNOW/ICE COVER HAS BUILT UP FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEYEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES MAY PRECLUDE A REALLYSIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEFORE THE NEXT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR AGAINPENETRATES TO THE EAST COAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS SO COLD...IT IS LIKELY THAT AS LOWPRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTOSATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILLPRECEDE THE MOVEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THEOHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTICAND NORTHEAST.SOME EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THAT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM COULDHEAD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS ANDCANADIAN. HOWEVER...THIS EVENINGS FORECASTS TRENDED FASTER ANDWEAKER...WITH THE WARMING STILL OCCURRING BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURESEVEN IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL STILL RATHER LOW. AS ARESULT...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDINGWHERE/HOW MUCH/SNOW VS FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THISSYSTEM...BUT PERHAPS IT IS LOOKING A BIT CLEARER WITH TONIGHTSMODEL RUNS.AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD...AN AREA OF SNOWIS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPIVALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. WHETHER PRECIPITATION BEGINS ASSNOW AND ACCUMULATES FROM DC TO BOSTON IS STILL AN OPEN QUESTIONBEFORE A CHANGEOVER POSSIBLY TO FREEZING RAIN AND/OR RAIN.HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF AN AREA OFGREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THENORTHEAST.THE FORECAST OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO A HUGE CHALLENGE DUE TO THEINITIAL COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST. AS ARESULT...THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN FORECASTACROSS PERHAPS A THIRD OF THE EASTERN US ON DAYS 2 TO 3. SOME OFTHE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...GREATER THAN A QUARTERINCH AND ALSO MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE SAME PLACES AS THE MOSTRECENT STORM. THERE IS A LOW TO EVEN MODERATE PROBABILITY OFGREATER THAN .25 INCHES OF FREEZING RAIN OVER ARKANSAS/SOUTHEASTMISSOURI AND TENNESSEE/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ON DAY 2...ANOVER WESTERN VIRGINIA/EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA/NW NORTH CAROLINA ONDAY 3.KOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z NAM and 4km NAM are pretty much a whiff for LAF. Yesterday's 12z Euro had 1.40" total QPF...at least 1/2 of which was rain. These models blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z NAM and 4km NAM are pretty much a whiff for LAF. Yesterday's 12z Euro had 1.40" total QPF...at least 1/2 of which was rain. These models blow. well I guess on the hopeful side, if we can't trust them 3 days out, why should we trust them 2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good chunk of Kentucky is on a hell of a run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 well I guess on the hopeful side, if we can't trust them 3 days out, why should we trust them 2 days out lol, true. 12 hours out might be the best I can give them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.