snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Thread turning into a cluster**** level: orange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The only thing I have to add is some of us have other things going on in our lives besides posting on a weather board all day (not trying to be rude or imply anything when saying this, it's the truth). please, no offense taken. Truth be told I have no dog in the fight, I just enjoy weather and always root for my hometown. Currently I make post from my yacht off Tahiti between Victoria Secret back rubs and mai tai refills. wait a minute....you have 600 more post than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not really putting much credence in the 18z GFS "loss" of the storm. Even a modest increase in the amount of amplification of the s/w that breaks off from the SW cutoff is going to create a more formidable storm. Looks like full sampling won't occur to sometime Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not really putting much credence in the 18z GFS "loss" of the storm. Even a modest increase in the amount of amplification of the s/w that breaks off from the SW cutoff is going to create a more formidable storm. Looks like full sampling won't occur to sometime Friday. The 12z EPS would have us sweating P-type but I'll take a more amped solution over a suppressed wave, especially since the models are probably underestimating the LL cold air/mixing potential. IMO the final solution is probably between a UK/ECM type track or something further north like the EPS is indicating as opposed to a EC v.s GFS argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not really putting much credence in the 18z GFS "loss" of the storm. Even a modest increase in the amount of amplification of the s/w that breaks off from the SW cutoff is going to create a more formidable storm. Looks like full sampling won't occur to sometime Friday. 2 inevitabilities in modeling a storm. 1. The gfs will lose it at some point 2. The nam will have an over-amped solution at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The GFS ensembles have been more aggressive than the OP GFS. This is important to note since the new GFS is terrible and the ensembles are still the old version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The GFS ensembles have been more aggressive than the OP GFS. This is important to note since the new GFS is terrible and the ensembles are still the old version. It will be interesting to see what they say in about 45mins when they come out, the 12z OP GFS was in the southern camp of the ensemble members with half or more farther north than the OP last run. I never put much stock in the 6z/18z runs anyways since they have a much more limited data set for initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not really putting much credence in the 18z GFS "loss" of the storm. Even a modest increase in the amount of amplification of the s/w that breaks off from the SW cutoff is going to create a more formidable storm. Looks like full sampling won't occur to sometime Friday. I tossed that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I tossed that run. Not surprising but based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 12z EPS would have us sweating P-type but I'll take a more amped solution over a suppressed wave, especially since the models are probably underestimating the LL cold air/mixing potential. IMO the final solution is probably between a UK/ECM type track or something further north like the EPS is indicating as opposed to a EC v.s GFS argument. With the PV hanging by and widespread cold air anomalies, I don't think we should have precip problems. The 12z GGEM is a possible outcome, but I don't think it can go any further NW as said earlier. The strong WAA should help build a decent gradient structure and this could fuel the storm even more. With the main energy originating from the Gulf, with a strong jet streak (and STJ influence), the 18z GFS seems like a joke. But hey timing is everything, right? Whats the spread on the 12z EPS/Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What is a "natural low track?" The climatologically-favored "panhandle hooker" that tends to cut up through the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Thats what happens when politicians take funding away from the roab network. Nothing left but progressive/cold biases. There is a reason models keep on getting worse and it isn't from the NCEP,ECMWF,CMC or UKMET attempts at a better products. There hasn't been any decrease in the RAOB network in at least 20 years, and even then, the NWS modernization should have just moved some sites around, not cut them. And even if there was, that shouldn't act to make waves modeled to be consistently too progressive. Not to mention that I believe there's been a fairly large uptick in the assimilation of ACARS data into the models in the past decade or so. Most of the GFS's perceived progressive biad probably stems from the inability to sample short waves as they moved through the data-void North Pacific, though that's really just conjecture on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 18Z GFS Ensemble Members QPF basically the OP GFS is the least juicy southern outlier for MI at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I am sticking with my story I received through my job. The ROAB network is trashed right now. It needs major upgrading and funding to fix problems that hurt the models to sample the pacific, especially. If they don't have any confidence, it leads toward flat, cold solutions with pacific waves well past the points of models of yesteryear. The late January northeast clipper bomb and Superbowl storm were picked up late and in terms of the latter, not totally picked up until the storm was hitting. Frankly, I wonder if the UKMET isn't doing a better job because its sampling network is still more intact in terms of efficiency. How exactly is the RAOB network "trashed" right now? And how is the UKMET's network different from the GFS's? Is the UK also taking soundings over North America that I wasn't aware of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 the one that dumps the most snow on Detroit apparently I should have said, "typical", not "natural". Lows seem to ride one side of the apps, instead of right over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The climatologically-favored "panhandle hooker" that tends to cut up through the OV. I just never heard it called a "natural low track." All lows and their tracks are technically "natural." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I just never heard it called a "natural low track." All lows and their tracks are technically "natural." Look at the post above this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The GFS ensembles have been more aggressive than the OP GFS. This is important to note since the new GFS is terrible and the ensembles are still the old version. This. They were always a step ahead of the op GFS during the super bowl blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The GFS is bad because of NCEP's failure to implement 4DVAR. It is what sets the EC and UK apart, although the most recent upgrade to the EC was clearly a bad one and significantly degraded its performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The GFS is bad because of NCEP's failure to implement 4DVAR. It is what sets the EC and UK apart, although the most recent upgrade to the EC was clearly a bad one and significantly degraded its performance. Its vertical resolution could use some work as well. That is also something that sets the UK/EC apart(70 v.s 130+ vertical levels). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I should have said, "typical", not "natural". Lows seem to ride one side of the apps, instead of right over. There is a geographically fixed negative potential vorticity anomaly on either side of the mountain range. The surface circulation will always gravitate toward one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The GFS is bad because of NCEP's failure to implement 4DVAR. It is what sets the EC and UK apart, although the most recent upgrade to the EC was clearly a bad one and significantly degraded its performance. I thought they were going to implement 4DVAR with the new update recently? Wonder why they didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Certainly outside of it's wheelhouse, but the 0z NAM is for snowfall Crap ton of rainfall for down south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 The GFS is bad because of NCEP's failure to implement 4DVAR. It is what sets the EC and UK apart, although the most recent upgrade to the EC was clearly a bad one and significantly degraded its performance. From what I've heard from modeling folks, 4DVAR isn't the entire answer. Hell I think the NAVGEM or GGEM uses 4DVAR. Anyhow, 00z NAM coming in and looking...junky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Right now it's the NAM/GFS vs the Ukie/GEM/Euro pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Certainly outside of it's wheelhouse, but the 0z NAM is for snowfall Crap ton of rainfall for down south though. Hey, at least we're all snow. All .2 of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 From what I've heard from modeling folks, 4DVAR isn't the entire answer. Hell I think the NAVGEM or GGEM uses 4DVAR. Can an argument be made that the GGEM has been performing better (though it's stil far from perfect) thanks to 4DVAR, if it's in fact using it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hey, at least we're all snow. All .2 of it. Buried. 12z Ukie threaded the needle for us pretty well. But like, really threaded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 DTX is bold with this one. Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Sunday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Thermal profiles aside, This storm is just where it should be, based on the telleconections that I am seeing on AmericanWX model page. The negative WPO is starting to relax moving towards neutral. The EPO is strongly negative causing a lower level high pressure system dropping in from the NW, not allowing this storm to cut further to the NW, and as of tonight the PNA will drop like a rock. The PNA looks to be strongly negative into the first weak of March, while the EPO will stay near neutral and could provide some cold air over the northern tier of states. That leads me to think that the first 10 days of march could be active from ORD to MSP. I could have put this in the medium range disco, but opted for this one, as the telle's make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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