smoof Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Again, please, scale bar. On those WB Maps, 2-5" is the blue shades, purple is 6-11" pink is 12"+ but don't forget they are contaminated with sleet / freezing rain counting as snow and are at 10:1 ratios too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I still like where I sit at this point and I'm with Hoosier thinking it could come a little further NW. we were sitting in the pretty chair last week at this time.... on the northern fringe waiting for the inevitable north bump. We got bumped, knocked down and kicked in the sack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Early look at 15z SREF snow and precip type plumes for various locations would seem to imply a fair number of north/warm solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Why? h5 heights look super flat as the energy rounds the base of the trough and that lead piece of energy leading to the convective breakout over TN doesn't help. It's a progressive looking setup...not going to punt on a wave ejecting out of the SW with an open gulf but I don't see much reason to be bullish on a NW trend. Hard to not like this and a good number of members NW of the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hard to not like this and a good number of members NW of the mean Wow, that has yet another north shift or 2 written all over it, this may just be Central MI's big dog finally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hard to not like this and a good number of members NW of the mean well then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Early look at 15z SREF snow and precip type plumes for various locations would seem to imply a fair number of north/warm solutions. Lot of cold air around. And I understand the power of warm advection. Gulf moisture and Arctic air. Good mix for widespread winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 completely different setup. we were waiting for the gulf low, which never developed. Instead the lead s/w was the main storm and it did move north. we were waiting on a modeled storm, it failed. The why's don't really matter, I wasn't trying to make a synoptic comparison. This one might have some tricks up it's sleeve as well. Or maybe we have suddenly reached that golden moment when 4 day storms are a lock....or blind squirrel or whatever. It's always funny how people who have been crying the loudest about how horrible the models have been this winter suddenly grow silent when the pink is landing in their backyards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's always funny how people who have been crying the loudest about how horrible the models have been this winter suddenly grow silent when the pink is landing in their backyards... shots fired @ the Michigan crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 we were waiting on a modeled storm, it failed. The why's don't really matter, I wasn't trying to make a synoptic comparison. This one might have some tricks up it's sleeve as well. Or maybe we have suddenly reached that golden moment when 4 day storms are a lock....or blind squirrel or whatever. It's always funny how people who have been crying the loudest about how horrible the models have been this winter suddenly grow silent when the pink is landing in their backyards... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45401-winter-1415-banter-complaint-thread-part-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Early look at 15z SREF snow and precip type plumes for various locations would seem to imply a fair number of north/warm solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 we were waiting on a modeled storm, it failed. The why's don't really matter, I wasn't trying to make a synoptic comparison. This one might have some tricks up it's sleeve as well. Or maybe we have suddenly reached that golden moment when 4 day storms are a lock....or blind squirrel or whatever. It's always funny how people who have been crying the loudest about how horrible the models have been this winter suddenly grow silent when the pink is landing in their backyards... +5 on the burn scale lol. I agree though. Definitely not buying any solution yet. Lol. The 18z could show a cmh superbomb but outside of 2 days I'm not buying a thing. I just find it hard to believe in a +60° shift in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On those WB Maps, 2-5" is the blue shades, purple is 6-11" pink is 12"+ but don't forget they are contaminated with sleet / freezing rain counting as snow and are at 10:1 ratios too. I know they're god awful for snow, but I like dividing by 10 to get a higher resolution picture of total QPF. And I mean, would it kill him to just upload the whole map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 And I mean, would it kill him to just upload the whole map? You should probably just pay for it to see for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 definitely don't pay for that garbage...it's just showing a few tenths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I know they're god awful for snow, but I like dividing by 10 to get a higher resolution picture of total QPF. And I mean, would it kill him to just upload the whole map? Yeah that's the only thing they are useful for is dividing by 10 to see more accurate euro / ukie qpf amounts you can't get for free lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 shots fired @ the Michigan crew I apologize.....these storm threads that cover 100,000 square miles are such a tinderbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I apologize.....these storm threads that cover 100,000 square miles are such a tinderbox. i thought it was a solid zinger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 There is higher confidence with this storm than previous storms. It is already known that the models have systematically undersimulated Pacific energy all winter long. The NW trend today was fully anticipated. At the same time, there is only so far NW it can go, which has already been noted by a couple people. Ensemble members are fairly clustered as well. I don't understand this negative attitude because people have higher confidence in this storm, which will probably impact Lower Michigan. If it bothers you that the current models might be reasonably close to the actual solution, then just forecast something further south and make yourself feel better. As it stands, a stripe of heavy snow in the Lower Peninsula is not a guarantee, as usual, but is perfectly reasonable to expect at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 There is higher confidence with this storm than previous storms. It is already known that the models have systematically undersimulated Pacific energy all winter long. The NW trend today was fully anticipated. At the same time, there is only so far NW it can go, which has already been noted by a couple people. Ensemble members are fairly clustered as well. I don't understand this negative attitude because people have higher confidence in this storm, which will probably impact Lower Michigan. If it bothers you that the current models might be reasonably close to the actual solution, then just forecast something further south and make yourself feel better. As it stands, a stripe of heavy snow in the Lower Peninsula is not a guarantee, as usual, but is perfectly reasonable to expect at this point. I thought the last fiasco and jump around on the models had more to do with the models unable to figure out how much energy would be ejected from the sw and which piece to focus on. What if this one gets more strung out as well? Is that possible? Isn't what happens to the energy once it gets out into the plains more a response to a lot of other factors that have nothing to do with it's initial strength coming in off the PAC? Not being a smart ass here...just asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You should probably just pay for it to see for yourself. I refuse to support WxBell or Ryan Maue on moral grounds. If it turns out I have to add up QPF frame by frame on Wunderground like some lowly peon, then so be it. All I'm saying is that it doesn't make much sense to post a graphic that lacks critical information like time, duration, and a scale bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 we were sitting in the pretty chair last week at this time.... on the northern fringe waiting for the inevitable north bump. We got bumped, knocked down and kicked in the sack. That's why Columbus averages half the snow of SE Michigan, the natural low track screws you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I thought the last fiasco and jump around on the models had more to do with the models unable to figure out how much energy would be ejected from the sw and which piece to focus on. What if this one gets more strung out as well? Is that possible? Isn't what happens to the energy once it gets out into the plains more a response to a lot of other factors that have nothing to do with it's initial strength coming in off the PAC? Not being a smart ass here...just asking. Correct. There are several players, including energy being drawn out of the upper low way off the Baja coast, the speed of the northern trough, and the position of the baroclinic zone laid down by the preceding wave on Friday night. I did not eliminate any possibilities, I merely questioned the misguided anger directed at those who are acknowledging that the solution space is probably narrower at this lead time with this system than it has been with most other systems this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What is a "natural low track?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What is a "natural low track?" the one that dumps the most snow on Detroit apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Correct. There are several players, including energy being drawn out of the upper low way off the Baja coast, the speed of the northern trough, and the position of the baroclinic zone laid down by the preceding wave on Friday night. I did not eliminate any possibilities, I merely questioned the misguided anger directed at those who are acknowledging that the solution space is probably narrower at this lead time with this system than it has been with most other systems this winter. thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's always funny how people who have been crying the loudest about how horrible the models have been this winter suddenly grow silent when the pink is landing in their backyards... Your post has already been addressed by a couple other folks. The only thing I have to add is some of us have other things going on in our lives besides posting on a weather board all day (not trying to be rude or imply anything when saying this, it's the truth). We're still looking at the same horrible models as before that will continue, like they consistently have for the past couple of seasons, to struggle with so many moving parts under the uber-progressive polar jet and the unimpressive subtropical jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 18Z GFS is a bit south and very crappy on snow totals thru 99hrs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That's why Columbus averages half the snow of SE Michigan, the natural low track screws you guys. Really? Cleveland has a right to that claim because of lake effect, but not Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 18Z GFS says "what snow?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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