Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That'd be a fun storm here even without it being all snow. Thump, to mess, to ending as snow. Indeed. Chances of that actually happening...slim to none. I guess we need to root for the 12z NAVGEM. It's all snow for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Models have undersimulated Pacific energy all winter long. This is no exception. The northwest trend is legit, imo. I'm not saying it's going to knock our faces off like the GEM does, but I don't think the previous flat solutions are likely at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 After the last 3 storms, I'm riding whatever the UKMET says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Indeed. Chances of that actually happening...slim to none. I guess we need to root for the 12z NAVGEM. It's all snow for LAF. nav_total_precip_east_19.png Been a while since we've had heavy snow to rain to snow...hard to do for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yes please to the 12z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Models have undersimulated Pacific energy all winter long. This is no exception. The northwest trend is legit, imo. I'm not saying it's going to knock our faces off like the GEM does, but I don't think the previous flat solutions are likely at all. I only have the ECMWF through 42 hours, but it's already stronger with the Pacific energy digging into the Pac NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Sfc reflection stronger and further North at hour 66. 998mb over SE CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro looks to go just east of Toledo at 96h at 1002mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Tracking near Toledo at 96 hrs out means it'll be tracking over my head by the time the weekend gets here. Just kidding, sort of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro is a bit too aggressive with the surface temps, it has us at 32 by Saturday afternoon, with 850 mb temps still -5c. That being said the 0c line barely scrapes into MI at 850mb. This would be a lot of cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 heh, I'd take the euro. It appears to front end us pretty good and then dry slot us.... It's kind of like stumbling drunk backwards into a snowstorm. the ggem also has a similar look.... it's conceivable that the first slug of moisture streaks out from the plains into the OV before the temps have time to warm..... Granted that may not be all snow, could be, probably is a mix of frozen stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 heh, I'd take the euro. It appears to front end us pretty good and then dry slot us.... It's kind of like stumbling drunk backwards into a snowstorm. the ggem also has a similar look.... it's conceivable that the first slug of moisture streaks out from the plains into the OV before the temps have time to warm..... Granted that may not be all snow, could be, probably is a mix of frozen stuff. Ugh, bullseyed 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I suppose it's hard to get really excited when you've already pulled off a 20" storm. enthusiasm at an all time low we'll see if it picks up when this trends into another 1'+ hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Interesting finger of heavier snow in c IN as this version actually tries to factor in mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Just checked the raw text output and it shows around 13.2 inches for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Interesting finger of heavier snow in c IN as this version actually tries to factor in mixed precip. 12z Euro has us at 34˚ and mostly rain. IND gets into the mid 40's...so the torch isn't far away. QPF totals are juicy, around 1.40" for us. 850 temps get to 2˚C. Good luck to Chicago, Detroit, and Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z Euro has us at 34˚ and mostly rain. IND gets into the mid 40's...so the torch isn't far away. QPF totals are juicy, around 1.40" for us. 850 temps get to 2˚C. Good luck to Chicago, Detroit, and Toronto. The NW trend could just be starting. May well end up a Madison to Alpena before it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The NW trend could just be starting. May well end up a Madison to Alpena before it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z Euro has us at 34˚ and mostly rain. IND gets into the mid 40's...so the torch isn't far away. QPF totals are juicy, around 1.40" for us. 850 temps get to 2˚C. Good luck to Chicago, Detroit, and Toronto. Why would that Eurowx map be showing that then? Unless it's thinking snow on the front and back end (with improving ratios toward the end) to come up with those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The NW trend could just be starting. May well end up a Madison to Alpena before it plays out. Not with the location of the Hudson Bay low, it has a limit as to how far north it can end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not with the location of the Hudson Bay low, it has a limit as to how far north it can end up. With the widespread CAA and PV nearby in the Hudson Bay, this can only come so far north. I agree with your statement. The strong push of WAA from the south will create a strong gradient storm. Looking great for a ton of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not with the location of the Hudson Bay low, it has a limit as to how far north it can end up. you mean this won't cut over MSP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Why would that Eurowx map be showing that then? Unless it's thinking snow on the front and back end (with improving ratios toward the end) to come up with those totals. Bad algorithm? The always too liberal WB snowfall maps have around 3" total for LAF. Anyways, doesn't really matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 you mean this won't cut over MSP? I mean we are probably close to its furthest north possible depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hudson Bay is pretty far away. I wouldn't be surprised with further northward shifts...in fact if you asked me what's most likely, a 50-100 mile northward shift, the status quo, or a 50-100 mile southward shift, I'd probably lean toward the first option. Of course I'm hoping for south shifts for MBY purposes but it's hard to be optimistic about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I still like where I sit at this point and I'm with Hoosier thinking it could come a little further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Bad algorithm? The always too liberal WB snowfall maps have around 3" total for LAF. Anyways, doesn't really matter... The snow maps count all frozen QPF as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 you mean this won't cut over MSP? Kiss of death. I never say never when weather is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 heh, I'd take the euro. It appears to front end us pretty good and then dry slot us.... It's kind of like stumbling drunk backwards into a snowstorm. the ggem also has a similar look.... it's conceivable that the first slug of moisture streaks out from the plains into the OV before the temps have time to warm..... Granted that may not be all snow, could be, probably is a mix of frozen stuff. Again, please, scale bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I still like where I sit at this point and I'm with Hoosier thinking it could come a little further NW. Why? h5 heights look super flat as the energy rounds the base of the trough and that lead piece of energy leading to the convective breakout over TN doesn't help. It's a progressive looking setup...not going to punt on a wave ejecting out of the SW with an open gulf but I don't see much reason to be bullish on a NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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