Stebo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I will say this, my one concern with this storm is there will be a zone of ice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Insane hit for the GTA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If that GFS verifies will have to cancel my ski trip that I've had planned for 2 months this weekend. Luckily the majority of the GEFS were much more progressive at 18z. Will be interesting to see the new ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I will say this, my one concern with this storm is there will be a zone of ice as well. St Louis to Indy looks like Ground Zero for that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like an initial northern stream disturbance passes through the region on the 20th, with less than a 24 hour break in precip in many areas, so I'm going to include that to keep things simple/avoid confusion about where to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Man the life boats in the MS Valley. It's not 100% rain on this run but close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Very nice GFS...stronger/better looking wave leading to stronger sfc low/overall p-falls ahead of it and now we're seeing much better 850/925mb trajectories allowing for better moisture transport. Not to jump the gun either but 925mbs are at 45kts over northeast IL and you have a 44mb pressure gradient....could maybe argue the b word in spots on this run. Small area of 80kts at 850mb almost out of the due south across the EVV area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Insane hit for the GTA.... No where to go but down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 beginning of the Boston snow melt No kidding. The 0z GFS is a piss tank for Boston with warm upper air/surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Very nice GFS...stronger/better looking wave leading to stronger sfc low/overall p-falls ahead of it and now we're seeing much better 850/925mb trajectories allowing for better moisture transport. Not to jump the gun either but 925mbs are at 45kts over northeast IL and you have a 44mb pressure gradient....could maybe argue the b word in spots on this run. Small area of 80kts at 850mb almost out of the due south across the EVV area gfs 850 winds 105.gif gfs 925 winds 105.gif I agree that one could argue the b word from this run. Winds would support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Definitely concerned about ice potential along the I-70 corridor with this as we will certainly have a very cold air mass and ground preceding this system with strong moisture transport. Going to have to watch closely the next few days. This afternoon in their AFD IND was already talking about "mixed precipitation" with this system Really concerned about wind potential up north with B issues and strong winds with icing down my way;.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 So the Ukie agrees as well, I love our crazy uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Looks similar to the GFS in terms of track. Hard to decipher the exact location given the improper time intervals. With such a strong gradient, there's the possibility of ice in some regions based on the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 0z GGEM similar to the 0z GFS/0z UKMET in terms of track. Its a bit weaker with the precip shield on the northern side as compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Ukie looks a little south of the GFS but also 12 hours faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The setup definitely smells like ice potential somewhere across Indiana and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 The setup definitely smells like ice potential somewhere across Indiana and Ohio. I'm not really sold on ice at this point... at least significant ice. Would like to see more of a bridge/banana high configuration on the models. That being said, the lead up to this storm is going to be unusually cold and we could see another instance of the ground accreting even with temps above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nice spread across the baroclinic zone at 850 on the GFS. About a 20C difference from north to south IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Weird text output for LAF as the GFS is showing plain rain with temps just under freezing. Though marginal temps and heavy precip rates would probably make the accretion process a lot more difficult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nice spread across the baroclinic zone at 850 on the GFS. About a 20C difference from north to south IL. Up there with GHD I and II in this regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 0z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Up there with GHD I and II in this regard GHD II didn't have as tight of a baroclinic zone, if I recall. If we can get all of the shortwave energy to round the base of the trough and take on a negative tilt (a little further than what the GFS shows), this thing can really explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerStateWX Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gotta be semi-plumped if you're in chicago to detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not a bad coupled Jet on the GFS either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This one has that "look" of a storm that ramps up to verification. Looking at dprog/dt for the last four GFS runs clearly shows that the 00z prog with the trough at 96 hrs has become more negatively tilted/defined with a stronger mid/upper level jet and better divergence aloft than indicated in previous runs. Incidentally the 00z CMC and UK showed this same shift compared to their 12z runs. Just a look at the 300 and 500 mb setups alone on the 00z GFS would indicate the potential for a higher end event, although keep in mind that the wave that eventually develops into this trough is still well out in the N Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gotta be semi-plumped if you're in chicago to detroit. I'd feel better if I were in Chicago. These storms that get really wound up last minute tend to not be so great for us, especially when we're already on the border of seeing mixing issues like on some of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GHD II didn't have as tight of a baroclinic zone, if I recall. If we can get all of the shortwave energy to round the base of the trough and take on a negative tilt (a little further than what the GFS shows), this thing can really explode. Not like the 0z GFS tonight but still pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 0z Euro came north but not like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 0z Euro came north but not like the GFS Still a modest hit for LAF / TOL / DTW / YYZ (possibly IND as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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