dmc76 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I wish the Ukie didn't have the 24 hour gaps at later times. IF the track is on a straight line between 96 and 120 hours, it would be something like this. Same starting spot on the 0z run...then it took it through AR-KY-WV...and then close to Albany, NY. So, you can probably guess based off the 120 hour map of the 12z run, that it shifted everything north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Sorry but I have to laugh at the instant weather map as it reminds me of some of the old TWC maps. Maybe they expect Lake Superior levels to rise to record levels and make the Keweenaw is just a small island Back in the late 80s/early 90s there was one set of maps TWC used that didn't even show the most of the UP and I think had it as part of Wisconsin (old long ranger maps??). Plus there were other maps that totally lacked the Keweenaw too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 If you go on Twisterdata.com, Long Island, the Keeweenaw Penninsula, Manitoulin Island, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, the Outer Banks, and the Bahamas are missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 no doubt the HP off the east coast will have a say as well.... I'm just skeptical of that kind of northward progression of warmth without a stronger low. More likely you'd have greater overrunning. Granted, that low could trend stronger too. 850mb winds are pretty strong even with a weak low pressure which leads to the warm air aloft moving far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I wish the Ukie didn't have the 24 hour gaps at later times. IF the track is on a straight line between 96 and 120 hours, it would be something like this. post-68-0-91481700-1424191401.png They do, just not for free. WB has the ukie in 6 hour increments and regional/metro views on the model. However it doesn't come out until around when the Euro ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 850mb winds are pretty strong even with a weak low pressure which leads to the warm air aloft moving far north. Yeah very strong, just need a stronger wave to come out and drop pressures better and get these to have a more southerly component and the potential sky rockets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 They do, just not for free. WB has the ukie in 6 hour increments and regional/metro views on the model. However it doesn't come out until around when the Euro ends. Oh, cool. Maybe someone can fill us in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah very strong, just need a stronger wave to come out and drop pressures better and get these to have a more southerly component and the potential sky rockets up 850 winds.gif On that note, the GFS dumps 3-4"+ of liquid in the Ohio Valley...the area that just got hammered with the snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On that note, the GFS dumps 3-4"+ of liquid in the Ohio Valley...the area that just got hammered with the snowstorm. Yeah very impressive, if we get better advection trajectories then a lot more of that QPF gets into the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On that note, the GFS dumps 3-4"+ of liquid in the Ohio Valley...the area that just got hammered with the snowstorm. I have seen some Mets talking about a possible Ice Storm for the Ohio Valley..Anyone else seeing this possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 I have seen some Mets talking about a possible Ice Storm for the Ohio Valley..Anyone else seeing this possibility? I mentioned ice earlier. Not seeing signals for big amounts at this point but could be some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 lol, I know. Just speaking to the central Indiana winter. Miss north, miss south, miss north... *See complaint thread for map, just so people know that you aren't blowing smoke out your a**. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z Euro is kinda, uh I don't know, meh-ish. Looks like an over-running kind of deal (from SW to NE) that should do a bit better than it actually does. In the end, most of Ohio does best. IND doesn't fare too poorly either and about 2-4" total for here. 2m temps are sketchy for most though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The snowpack is not that deep. Can see grass in west central ohio. Temps will depend on where the warm front builds this weekend. Whether it is flatter or more amplified. Models will also struggle with the flattening of the pna.True not deep here, but was referencing south of here where the air is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z Ukmet low locations in 6hr increments. 96hr Fort Smith 1006mb 102hr Memphis 1008mb 108hr Nashville 1008mb 114hr Akron 1008mb 120hr Just east of Toronto 1004mb Decent snow for Central IN, though LAF gets the screws, the northern half of OH, though CMH is very close to the line. South of that there does look to be a zone of ice, especially for S IN/OH and N KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 18z GFS was an improvement from the 12z run, as far as the upper levels. Nice hit for Ohio through Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 18Z GFS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Nice long-duration LES signal for Chicago on the 18z GFS. With more moving pieces than the last two events, have to think any LES potential, especially placement of a potential band, won't be nailed down nearly as early as it was last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 18Z GFS Snow Map: more north please... keep tracking north,. lol. Seriously, about ready for some spring type weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 18Z GFS Ensemble Members QPF Maps.... So Juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 18Z GFS Ensemble Members QPF Maps.... So Juicy! Are those from yesterday? Seems way too fast for those to be out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Are those from yesterday? Seems way too fast for those to be out yet Yes that is today's run, check the timestamp 144hrs = 6 days, 17th + 6 = 23rd at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 0Z GFS a lot stronger / north looks like 12z UKIE did basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The GFS is perfect for here, lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 0z GFS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Definitely getting more interesting with that GFS run. Plenty of moisture. Just have to get more into the cold sector. NAM will come into play tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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