Powerball Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm going with whatever the crazy uncle's selling. It has the hot hand. We need a new nickname for our favorite model. Our crazy uncle hasn't been so crazy this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Wow Nashville cant buy snow. They havent had a 1" snowfall in 4 years, and what looked to be a 3-6" snowstorm ended up all ice. Wow Nashville cant buy snow. They havent had a 1" snowfall in 4 years, and what looked to be a 3-6" snowstorm ended up all ice. Nashville picking up nearly a season's worth of snow in 1 storm would have been extremely anomalous for them. So I don't think the last minute changes were all that surprising (given how unusual it is for them to get the alternative). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We need a new nickname for our favorite model. Our crazy uncle hasn't been so crazy this season... Mad king? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We need a new nickname for our favorite model. Our crazy uncle hasn't been so crazy this season... Off Topic I know but C'mon, It's gotta be Uncle Buck. I think there could be some appropriately implied metaphor's in this description ..... "As an idle, good-natured bachelor, Uncle Buck is the last person you would think of to watch the kids. However, during a family crisis, he is suddenly left in charge of his nephew and nieces. Unaccustomed to suburban life, fun-loving Uncle Buck soon charms his younger relatives Miles and Maizy with his hefty cooking and his new way of doing the laundry. His carefree style does not impress everyone though - especially his rebellious teenage niece, Tia, and his impatient girlfriend, Chanice. With a little bit of luck and a lot of love, Uncle Buck manages to surprise everyone in this heartwarming family comedy." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Based on the maps at meteocentre, the UKMET sort of resembles the Euro. At 120 hours it has the LP in central Kentucky. Hard to decipher where it goes next due to the long time intervals till the next map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Here's the 0z Ukie at 96 and 120 hours. Comparing it to the 12z run (6 hour increments on WB), it looks like it's a tad stronger with the slp at 0z Sunday. 12z run was fairly good for STL, IND, DAY, CVG, CMH, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Ukie is quite interesting. Riding the line (back to usual) in Cincy. Kind of suspicious of the temps getting into the mid 30s with a low south of us given deep snowpack and preceding arctic air. Could be quite an icy mess because the ukie is quite juicy with that low thru the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm going with whatever the crazy uncle's selling. It has the hot hand. +1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Probably not a good sign that LAF is sweating precip type on the GFS. I'm more concerned about that than a whiff to the south at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 May have to watch for a band of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yep, GFS starting to figure things out. Way north on the 12z run, which brings a cold rain for the LAF. Not surprised. Looking at the details of last night's 0z Ukie...would be a two-parter that hits STL-IND-CMH pretty well. Would be nice if that would hold, as that would take care of one of the remaining "bigger" storm screw holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z GFS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Probably not a good sign that LAF is sweating precip type on the GFS. I'm more concerned about that than a whiff to the south at this point. so the gfs has a 1004 low in w. TX that begins to weaken as it heads northeast into E. KY to 1018mb on a positively tilted trough with a bully HP pressing in...and yet the 850s get driven to northern ohio. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yep, GFS starting to figure things out. Way north on the 12z run, which brings a cold rain for the LAF. Not surprised. Looking at the details of last night's 0z Ukie...would be a two-parter that hits STL-IND-CMH pretty well. Would be nice if that would hold, as that would take care of one the remaining "bigger" storm screw holes. Actually the precip type maps give us a bit of everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 so the gfs has a 1004 low in w. TX that begins to weaken as it heads northeast into E. KY to 1018mb on a positively tilted trough with a bully HP pressing in...and yet the 850s get driven to northern ohio. Interesting w. gulf is wide open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 w. gulf is wide open no doubt the HP off the east coast will have a say as well.... I'm just skeptical of that kind of northward progression of warmth without a stronger low. More likely you'd have greater overrunning. Granted, that low could trend stronger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Actually the precip type maps give us a bit of everything Alas, looking good for ORD, DTW, etc. Wash, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Alas, looking good for ORD, DTW, etc. Wash, rinse, repeat. where were you the last 2 days?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 where were you the last 2 days?? lol lol, I know. Just speaking to the central Indiana winter. Miss north, miss south, miss north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 There were a couple 6z GFS ensembles that even brought precip type questions into Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 prolonged lake dust signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 prolonged lake dust signal Yep, parameters don't start out good but get better toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 w. gulf is wide open You're always good for a 850mb trajectories map at this range. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z Ukie not backing down. 96 and 120 hour maps below... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z Ukie not backing down. 96 and 120 hour maps below... Now that looks interesting and the Ukie is hard to deny this winter too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This is a set up that it could go either way depending how all the features on the map line up. I could see a stronger low further north, but equally it could be a weaker wave much further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 I wish the Ukie didn't have the 24 hour gaps at later times. IF the track is on a straight line between 96 and 120 hours, it would be something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z GGEM a little more interested than the 0z run. Decent run for STL-southern IL-southern IN-southern/central OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 This is a set up that it could go either way depending how all the features on the map line up. I could see a stronger low further north, but equally it could be a weaker wave much further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I wish the Ukie didn't have the 24 hour gaps at later times. IF the track is on a straight line between 96 and 120 hours, it would be something like this. post-68-0-91481700-1424191401.png LOL I did one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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