Jackstraw Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wonder what effects this will have on central ohio crew. If it starts to pivot NE as modeled, not a Fu%^$ng thing IMO lol. Still a ton of QPF down south and still plenty of cold air across there. I'm just in the 2014/15 screw hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 To give the models credit, several of them, at some point in the last 24 hours, depicted an intense band in central IL only to screw hole us to the East. Hires models (the NAMs, RGEM) were definitely all over the deathband scenario. But they were too far north with it. Touchy situation, but I should have known it was going to be tight/bust-able when they were putting down 0.70" or more QPF here with scrap amounts just 20 miles or so to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 If it starts to pivot NE as modeled, not a Fu%^$ng thing IMO lol. Still a ton of QPF down south and still plenty of cold air across there. I'm just in the 2014/15 screw hole 7z hrrr spitting 6-8 here still. But gives you guys 4-6" don't give up hope yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 7z hrrr spitting 6-8 here still. But gives you guys 4-6" don't give up hope yet. I'm Now-wishcasting the crap out of this but it ain't gonna happen. Maybe another 1-2 on top of the 1.75 I have now. At least it will be white outside when the arctic cooler sets back in next week. Nothing worse than bare ground and -5! I swear these are the funkiest flakes I've ever seen. It's like there's 3 or 4 different snow makers up top. I've got huge flakes, medium flakes and dust now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yeah, HRRR is on crack. Down to just a few spits of snow here now...with not much hope left. I picked a bad morning to have insomnia. Oh well, at least there's some snow on the ground again. It could be worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 4.1" at IND so far. Not bad. 0510 AM SNOW INDIANAPOLIS 39.71N 86.28W 02/21/2015 M4.1 INCH MARION IN NWS OFFICE4.1 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT WEATHER SERVICE OFFICEBETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 510 AM EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Down to a trickle here now. Measured a whopping 1.8". Makes for two solid busts/near misses for the LAF this month. As Roberto Duran once famously said..."no mas". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Down to a trickle here now. Measured a whopping 1.8". Makes for two solid busts/near misses for the LAF this month. As Roberto Duran once famously said..."no mas". Not sure I even have that much... heading out in a bit to check. Think we can still pick up another inch or so with the band in Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Not sure I even have that much... heading out in a bit to check. Think we can still pick up another inch or so with the band in Illinois. lol, I gave up looking at the radar. It'll probably fall apart or something before it gets here. IND up to 4.6" storm total. That's respectable. 0700 AM SNOW 1 S INDIANAPOLIS INT`L 39.71N 86.29W 02/21/2015 M4.6 INCH MARION IN NWS OFFICE STORM TOTAL. RECEIVED AN ADDITIONAL 4.0 INCHES THE PAST 6 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 A few tenths down. Guessing by the upstream cluster****, I'll probably struggle to 2". Convection intercept FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Good shot at a footer for SPI. 0605 AM HEAVY SNOW SPRINGFIELD 39.78N 89.64W 02/21/2015 M11.8 INCH SANGAMON IL OFFICIAL NWS OBSLIGHT SNOW FALLING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Good shot at a footer for SPI. 0605 AM HEAVY SNOW SPRINGFIELD 39.78N 89.64W 02/21/2015 M11.8 INCH SANGAMON IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS LIGHT SNOW FALLING. Congrats to them. Looks like almost a lock with that ribbon of snow moving in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Precipitation rates were supposed to overcome the warm nose here and deliver 8-12 inches, didn't happen. About an inch of slop here. I am enjoying this 50 degree temp swing from this time yesterday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Congrats to them. Looks like almost a lock with that ribbon of snow moving in from the west. Yeah, I would think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Precipitation rates were supposed to overcome the warm nose here and deliver 8-12 inches, didn't happen. About an inch of slop here. I am enjoying this 50 degree temp swing from this time yesterday though. That sucks. Sorry to hear on the snow front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 14/8f Borderline +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 14/8f Borderline +SN. Back edge of this round already approaching, although I'm seeing some expansion of returns over central Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Back edge of this round already approaching, although I'm seeing some expansion of returns over central Lake Erie. Very positive look to the HRRR this morning as well. Has the defo band stalling across the city from noon to 4pm. Would be 3" easily, maybe closer to 4 or 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Man, Paducah got LAF'ed...hardcore. 1.88" of miserable cold rain (with a good bit of initial ZR too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So close... I feel bad for them. I think theres going to be a few pretty big busts on the southern end today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ratio's right now are definitely above 10:1 around here. The greatest omega is between ~850mb and 500mb. Even with some more WAA, the best lift is superimposed pretty nicely with the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So close... I feel bad for them. I think theres going to be a few pretty big busts on the southern end today. Yeah. Those Kentucky offices had their hands full. Really tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks like about 3-5" of snow so far across a good chunk of IND's CWA, outside of the northern portions who fared worse. Steady light mood snow here right now. Might be able to tack on an additional tenth or two, but that'll be all she wrote in the LAF. All the models get a F IMBY. Extra credit to the hires models who were the absolute worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks like about 3-5" of snow so far across a good chunk of IND's CWA, outside of the northern portions who fared worse. Steady light mood snow here right now. Might be able to tack on an additional tenth or two, but that'll be all she wrote in the LAF. All the models get a F IMBY. Extra credit to the hires models who were the absolute worst. same here but that goes for every storm. As I mentioned yesterday, do not get me wrong. I am not complaining that the models screw me. Undeniably I have been on the good side of model busts much more than the bad side in the last 2 years. But regardless, almost every event is poorly, poorly modeled here. Does look like I will get a snowpack refresher graze job though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Doesn't take much snow to make the roads treacherous around here. Drive to work was dicey. Stuck the ruler on the sidewalk in front here, for giggles, and measured 2.2". Woo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Doesn't take much snow to make the roads treacherous around here. Drive to work was dicey. Stuck the ruler on the sidewalk in front here, for giggles, and measured 2.2". Woo. About the same here. 2" to maybe a few 3" lollipops someplace. We didn't even make the low end of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Very positive look to the HRRR this morning as well. Has the defo band stalling across the city from noon to 4pm. Would be 3" easily, maybe closer to 4 or 5". Wow, looks like that may be coming to fruition. +SN right now and radar looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 About the same here. 2" to maybe a few 3" lollipops someplace. We didn't even make the low end of the forecast. We're not very good at snow anymore. Last gasp snows doing well here right now, naturally. METAR KLAF 211454Z 00000KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV013 M07/M07 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP145 P0000 60000 T10671072 50014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow, looks like that may be coming to fruition. +SN right now and radar looks awesome. Rates about to increase markedly over here... how is flake size upstream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Rates about to increase markedly over here... how is flake size upstream? Screen Shot 2015-02-21 at 10.16.19 AM.png lol, in Etobicoke this weekend. Too lazy to change my location. Closing in on an inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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