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February 20-22 Storm Potential


Hoosier

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0z NAM goes south...of course. Maybe 2-3" for LAF now. Awesome. Oh well I guess. Good luck to those down south, west, and east. :)

 

You sound like a scorned lover lmao!... Don't blame ya  :hug: This winter is a 3 (inch) and out special for North Central IN.  Crazy tornadoes, cold and snow last year, guess it's the law of averages. From the radar returns it just can't get any closer.   :unsure:

KIND update

"WITH SYSTEM STILL DEVELOPING AM HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES

TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL

DATA AS WELL AS 00Z NAM SHIFT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF SNOW SOUTH.

THIS IS LIKELY DUE IN PART TO FOCUS OF 850 JET BEING TO THE SOUTH OF

THE AREA AND BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BEING TO THE SOUTH.

THUS NUDGED AMOUNTS DOWN CENTRAL AND NUDGED UP A BIT IN THE

SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME GETTING IN.

STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH

LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES WHERE BANDED PRECIPITATION

SETS UP."

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Finally reached an inch on my board.  

This is a little off topic but just thought would share some humor while this thing pans out.  The following is literally the way the long term AFD was updated at KIND note for note (I'm sure it's an error but with the way they've been disgruntled with the models this year it's funny IMO).  I think someone is in the office banging their head on the wall lol....

 

".LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

THIS IS A LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATER PART. THERE IS NO NEED
TO CHANGE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THESE ARE NO GREATER THAN WHAT CAN BE
EXPECTED THAT FAR OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR. STILL..THE WEATHER COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON WHAT ULTIMATELY VERIFIES.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE MODELS CONVERGE. ALSO WITH THE AREA UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME EVEN IF THERE ARE
SOME ERRORS IN SYSTEM PLACEMENT.
THIS IS A LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATER PART. THERE IS NO NEED
TO CHANGE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THESE ARE NO GREATER THAN WHAT CAN BE
EXPECTED THAT FAR OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR. STILL..THE WEATHER COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON WHAT ULTIMATELY VERIFIES.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE MODELS CONVERGE. ALSO WITH THE AREA UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME EVEN IF THERE ARE
SOME ERRORS IN SYSTEM PLACEMENT.25 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

THIS IS A LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND A HIGH
CONFIDENCE LATER. THERE IS NO NEED TO CHANGE THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THESE ARE NO GREATER THAN WHAT CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. STILL..THE WEATHER COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON WHAT VERIFIES.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE MODELS CONVERGE. ALSO WITH THE AREA UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE ROBUST AGAIN ERRORS IN SYSTEM
PLACEMENT."

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it's beautiful outside half dollar size flakes and it's dead quiet.....just measured 5.5"

 

Nice. Congrats.

 

You sound like a scorned lover lmao!... Don't blame ya  :hug: This winter is a 3 (inch) and out special for North Central IN.  Crazy tornadoes, cold and snow last year, guess it's the law of averages. From the radar returns it just can't get any closer.   :unsure:

 

Hate getting the rug pulled at the last second...sigh. But yeah, I suppose all the fun here from Nov 2013 - Mar 2014 had to even out at some point. At least I/we got something out of this...beats a total whiff. :D 

 

Springfield reporting 9"

 

Rock on. 

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06z NAM seems to be drastically cutting back snow totals across i70 in Ohio. May not matter as its nowcast time but something to note. Haven't seen the text data yet, however.

Several of yesterdays 06Z and 12Z models were hinting at a dry slot along and just north of I70.  Perhaps this is coming to fruition.  The 7Z run of the HRRR doesn't show any significant QPF up this way until 10 or 11 this morning.

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Picked up here in the last 30 minutes.  Got another .5 inches Not big flakes, a virtual cornucopia of flake types.  1/4 inch to dust.  Kinda weird lol.

 

Mixed flake size here too. Intensity waxes and wanes. Eyeballing an 1.5" or so here thus far. 

 

Looking at the radars to the west, going to be a minor miracle if we can pull off 3.0" total in the LAF. I had to switch to composite radar, because base reflectivity is depressing. :lol:

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Sounds like the Paducah area is getting messy.......

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
241 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM FREEZING RAIN DU QUOIN 38.00N 89.24W
02/21/2015 M0.25 INCH PERRY IL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWER LINES COMPLETELY ICE COVERED. WATER
BEGINNING TO POND AND COVER ROADWAYS

0200 AM FREEZING RAIN 2 S CALVERT CITY 37.00N 88.35W
02/21/2015 M0.25 INCH MARSHALL KY NWS EMPLOYEE

AT LEAST 1/4 INCH OF ICE. SOME TREE LIMBS SAGGING
TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN TO 33 NOW
 

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Mixed flake size here too. Intensity waxes and wanes. Eyeballing an 1.5" or so here thus far. 

 

Looking at the radars to the west, going to be a minor miracle if we can pull off 3.0" total in the LAF. I had to switch to composite radar, because base reflectivity is depressing. :lol:

Using the COD site on the St. Louis radar it's evaporating.  Was checking pressures along the forecast track, not encouraging.

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Nice. Congrats.

 

 

Hate getting the rug pulled at the last second...sigh. But yeah, I suppose all the fun here from Nov 2013 - Mar 2014 had to even out at some point. At least I/we got something out of this...beats a total whiff. :D

 

 

Rock on. 

Thanks im right at 8" with another 1.5" possible according to ILX....im guessing KSPI probably in the 10-11" range now

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Our saving grace up here was going to be that :weenie: deform band back down towards St. Louis. Bye Bye, it's falling apart and its dry slot city just to the south. Springfield cashed in on the front end of it. I wouldn't be surprised to see sunlight by 3 pm lol.

Wonder what effects this will have on central ohio crew.

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