Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Half dollar size flakes here easily closing in on 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Rip city in the east/west band in central IL. DEC now with +SN 1/4. St. Louis Regional (ALN) reported lightning to the south a short while ago with light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Heavy sleet falling in my neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Half dollar size flakes here easily closing in on 4"what time did it start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Half dollar size flakes here easily closing in on 4" Very nice. Looks like you are right in the middle of the best returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ripping heavy sleet in Godfrey, IL (near STL). It's pinger city tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Very nice. Looks like you are right in the middle of the best returns. screenshot.png it's beautiful outside half dollar size flakes and it's dead quiet.....just measured 5.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 0z NAM goes south...of course. Maybe 2-3" for LAF now. Awesome. Oh well I guess. Good luck to those down south, west, and east. You sound like a scorned lover lmao!... Don't blame ya This winter is a 3 (inch) and out special for North Central IN. Crazy tornadoes, cold and snow last year, guess it's the law of averages. From the radar returns it just can't get any closer. KIND update "WITH SYSTEM STILL DEVELOPING AM HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA AS WELL AS 00Z NAM SHIFT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF SNOW SOUTH. THIS IS LIKELY DUE IN PART TO FOCUS OF 850 JET BEING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BEING TO THE SOUTH. THUS NUDGED AMOUNTS DOWN CENTRAL AND NUDGED UP A BIT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME GETTING IN. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES WHERE BANDED PRECIPITATION SETS UP." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Springfield reporting 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Starting out with freezing rain in the low 20s in Cincinnati. Should see heavy precip rates kick that over to snow later unless we have a very unforecast warm layer aloft right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Springfield reporting 9" Radar looks good out west for there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Starting out with freezing rain in the low 20s in Cincinnati. Should see heavy precip rates kick that over to snow later unless we have a very unforecast warm layer aloft right now. Keep us in central ohio posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We've had .10 freezing rain accretion the past hour. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow has started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Finally reached an inch on my board. This is a little off topic but just thought would share some humor while this thing pans out. The following is literally the way the long term AFD was updated at KIND note for note (I'm sure it's an error but with the way they've been disgruntled with the models this year it's funny IMO). I think someone is in the office banging their head on the wall lol.... ".LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 230 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015THIS IS A LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THEPERIOD AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATER PART. THERE IS NO NEEDTO CHANGE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMINGBETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THESE ARE NO GREATER THAN WHAT CAN BEEXPECTED THAT FAR OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR. STILL..THE WEATHER COULD BESIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON WHAT ULTIMATELY VERIFIES.AFTER WEDNESDAY THE MODELS CONVERGE. ALSO WITH THE AREA UNDER HIGHPRESSURE SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME EVEN IF THERE ARESOME ERRORS IN SYSTEM PLACEMENT.THIS IS A LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THEPERIOD AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATER PART. THERE IS NO NEEDTO CHANGE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMINGBETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THESE ARE NO GREATER THAN WHAT CAN BEEXPECTED THAT FAR OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR. STILL..THE WEATHER COULD BESIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON WHAT ULTIMATELY VERIFIES.AFTER WEDNESDAY THE MODELS CONVERGE. ALSO WITH THE AREA UNDER HIGHPRESSURE SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME EVEN IF THERE ARESOME ERRORS IN SYSTEM PLACEMENT.25 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015THIS IS A LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND A HIGHCONFIDENCE LATER. THERE IS NO NEED TO CHANGE THE REGIONALINITIALIZATION.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMINGBETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THESE ARE NO GREATER THAN WHAT CAN BEEXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. STILL..THE WEATHER COULD BESIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON WHAT VERIFIES.AFTER WEDNESDAY THE MODELS CONVERGE. ALSO WITH THE AREA UNDER HIGHPRESSURE SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE ROBUST AGAIN ERRORS IN SYSTEMPLACEMENT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 06z NAM seems to be drastically cutting back snow totals across i70 in Ohio. May not matter as its nowcast time but something to note. Haven't seen the text data yet, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 it's beautiful outside half dollar size flakes and it's dead quiet.....just measured 5.5" Nice. Congrats. You sound like a scorned lover lmao!... Don't blame ya This winter is a 3 (inch) and out special for North Central IN. Crazy tornadoes, cold and snow last year, guess it's the law of averages. From the radar returns it just can't get any closer. Hate getting the rug pulled at the last second...sigh. But yeah, I suppose all the fun here from Nov 2013 - Mar 2014 had to even out at some point. At least I/we got something out of this...beats a total whiff. Springfield reporting 9" Rock on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 06z NAM seems to be drastically cutting back snow totals across i70 in Ohio. May not matter as its nowcast time but something to note. Haven't seen the text data yet, however. Several of yesterdays 06Z and 12Z models were hinting at a dry slot along and just north of I70. Perhaps this is coming to fruition. The 7Z run of the HRRR doesn't show any significant QPF up this way until 10 or 11 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 2" at IND last hour. METAR KIND 210854Z 09003KT 3/4SM R05L/P6000FT -SN BR VV013 M08/M10 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP150 SNINCR 2/7 P0012 60025 T10831100 56022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Picked up here in the last 30 minutes. Got another .5 inches Not big flakes, a virtual cornucopia of flake types. 1/4 inch to dust. Kinda weird lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Picked up here in the last 30 minutes. Got another .5 inches Not big flakes, a virtual cornucopia of flake types. 1/4 inch to dust. Kinda weird lol. Mixed flake size here too. Intensity waxes and wanes. Eyeballing an 1.5" or so here thus far. Looking at the radars to the west, going to be a minor miracle if we can pull off 3.0" total in the LAF. I had to switch to composite radar, because base reflectivity is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Sounds like the Paducah area is getting messy....... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY241 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0200 AM FREEZING RAIN DU QUOIN 38.00N 89.24W02/21/2015 M0.25 INCH PERRY IL EMERGENCY MNGRTREES AND POWER LINES COMPLETELY ICE COVERED. WATERBEGINNING TO POND AND COVER ROADWAYS0200 AM FREEZING RAIN 2 S CALVERT CITY 37.00N 88.35W02/21/2015 M0.25 INCH MARSHALL KY NWS EMPLOYEEAT LEAST 1/4 INCH OF ICE. SOME TREE LIMBS SAGGINGTEMPERATURE HAS RISEN TO 33 NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Mixed flake size here too. Intensity waxes and wanes. Eyeballing an 1.5" or so here thus far. Looking at the radars to the west, going to be a minor miracle if we can pull off 3.0" total in the LAF. I had to switch to composite radar, because base reflectivity is depressing. Using the COD site on the St. Louis radar it's evaporating. Was checking pressures along the forecast track, not encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 what time did it start?sorry didn't see your post earlier...started right around 9 went from nothing to +SN within 5mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nice. Congrats. Hate getting the rug pulled at the last second...sigh. But yeah, I suppose all the fun here from Nov 2013 - Mar 2014 had to even out at some point. At least I/we got something out of this...beats a total whiff. Rock on. Thanks im right at 8" with another 1.5" possible according to ILX....im guessing KSPI probably in the 10-11" range now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Using the COD site on the St. Louis radar it's evaporating. Was checking pressures along the forecast track, not encouraging. Yeah, it's not pretty. That blob of convective looking heavy rain in KY and TN certainly didn't help things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Our saving grace up here was going to be that deform band back down towards St. Louis. Bye Bye, it's falling apart and its dry slot city just to the south. Springfield cashed in on the front end of it. I wouldn't be surprised to see sunlight by 3 pm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Thanks im right at 8" with another 1.5" possible according to ILX....im guessing KSPI probably in the 10-11" range now Very impressive for SPI. Looking at your sig, looks like you doubled your season total. That's good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Our saving grace up here was going to be that deform band back down towards St. Louis. Bye Bye, it's falling apart and its dry slot city just to the south. Springfield cashed in on the front end of it. I wouldn't be surprised to see sunlight by 3 pm lol. Wonder what effects this will have on central ohio crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 To give the models credit, several of them, at some point in the last 24 hours, depicted an intense band in central IL only to screw hole us to the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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