buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 48 hrs ago... model failure at it's finest...unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I wonder if there are any more north movements left in this one. Doubtful ... looking at satellite there the S/W is not all that strong and not that well defined. It would need some rapid strengthening for us north of Detroit. Since this is going south I am hopeful for the CMH, IND and LAF crew to get a decent system out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 at this range shouldn't you favor the rgem? Yeah, I'm not really that "worried" about the GGEM. 12z Ukie total QPF. It kinda changed the orientation of the precipitation...and added some in places, subtracted some in places...but by and large the same look as the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 48 hrs ago... model failure at it's finest...unreal Glad I viewed that as pure porn and not reality! Never was really excited about this event this far north when looking at the vorticity maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Glad I viewed that as pure porn and not reality! Never was really excited about this event this far north when looking at the vorticity maps. As much as I hate to do it... ....got to also give props to Alek.... he never bought into it for his backyard, even when the models were jumping north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah this never had the look of a system that cuts well north or northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah this never had the look of a system that cuts well north or northwest with such a pos tilted trough, that was my original thoughts too.... but others talking about models underplaying pac energy etc, had me convinced that this was going to be a wagons north. hell, i'm not convinced the south trend is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah this never had the look of a system that cuts well north or northwest Going to be interesting to see how far north this thing actually goes. I think the 0Z run tonight should make it pretty clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 with such a pos tilted trough, that was my original thoughts too.... but others talking about models underplaying pac energy etc, had me convinced that this was going to be a wagons north. hell, i'm not convinced the south trend is done It seems to have settled into your area ... you should get a decent storm out of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Consolation rip city currently in this band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 IWX has cut the totals down to 2-3" in their southern areas on their zone forecasts. However, the forecast discussions still agree on 5" for most of the srn half of their area. Still think that we could easily get 4-5" out of this on the north side of the storm. Srn OH with the jackpot this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 with such a pos tilted trough, that was my original thoughts too.... but others talking about models underplaying pac energy etc, had me convinced that this was going to be a wagons north. hell, i'm not convinced the south trend is done To be fair, depends what model you're talking about as some earlier runs had a neutral to negatively tilted wave. Here's the 12z GGEM from the 18th But the modeled look for tomorrow is now much more positively tilted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 the 9Z SREFs have it all covered in Howell: 0.1" - 7" of snow with the individual members well scattered in between except the all the ARW members which are all right near 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 the 9Z SREFs have it all covered in Howell: 0.1" - 7" of snow with the individual members well scattered in between except the all the ARW members which are all right near 6" Not liking the trends up here. Looks like convection across the TN Valley is going to siphon off a lot of our moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 As much as I hate to do it... ....got to also give props to Alek.... he never bought into it for his backyard, even when the models were jumping north. As with last weekends system there was only 1 cycle run that bought those storms near ORD. Model trends in both cases abruptly trended south. And yes, ALE commented appropriately he wasn't expecting much if anything from them. First and final call for ORD 3.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 As with last weekends system there was only 1 cycle run that bought those storms near ORD. Model trends in both cases abruptly trended south. And yes, ALE commented appropriately he wasn't expecting much if anything from them. First and final call for ORD 3.3". 3.3" tomorrow? Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 go big or go home .3" sounds better to me but i haven't looked at a model run since 12 yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not liking the trends up here. Looks like convection across the TN Valley is going to siphon off a lot of our moisture. Yeah my flags fly up whenever I see those 2"- 4" QPF bulleyes in the south like that. As said I was never all that found of this set particular setup. Maybe those ARW SREF members can prove me wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 3.3" tomorrow? Oh boy. More wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I like where we sit in SW Ohio but don't know how much mixing will cut into these totals. QPF around 1in is nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 ARW actually has a band of somewhat greater precip north of LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We will be on the northern fringe but hey ill take a refresher to make the deep snow deeper as we head into the next arctic blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN152 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015Accumulating winter precipitation is expected late tonightthrough saturday...INZ021-028>031-035>049-210300-/O.UPG.KIND.WW.Y.0010.150221T0300Z-150222T0100Z//O.EXB.KIND.WS.W.0004.150221T0000Z-150222T0000Z/CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS152 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015...winter storm warning in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 PMEST saturday...the National Weather Service in indianapolis has issued a winterstorm warning primarily for heavy snow, which is in effect from 7 PMthis evening to 7 PM EST saturday. the winter weather advisory isno longer in effect.* timing, snow will overspread central indiana late tonight through saturday. sleet may periodically mix in with the snow near and south of interstate 70 late tonight and saturday morning. * accumulations, 4 to 8 inches of snow.* main impacts, slick and snow covered roads. hazardous travel conditions. precautionary/preparedness actions...a winter storm warning for heavy snow means severe winter weatherconditions are expected or occurring. significant amounts ofsnow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. only travel inan emergency. if you must travel, keep an extra flashlight...food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Snowing here right now, lightly, despite a nice 15˚/-2˚ temp/dew spread at LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This thing seems a bit "precip-happy" at times, but here's the total QPF from the 12z hires RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z NAM total QPF (west and east sections from WB). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z NAM total QPF (west and east sections from WB). 18z nam west.png 18z nam east.png Perfect. Hopefully not enough time for a 30 mile south shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 good luck dudes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 good luck dudesThanks! It's not a blizzard or a foot of snow, but for a lot of us it should be our first 5"+ snow of the year.Edit: knock on wood so I don't jinx us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Thanks! It's not a blizzard or a foot of snow, but for a lot of us it should be our first 5"+ snow of the year. I'm taking a wait and see approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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