smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 OT: holy crap it is already -20 here at 12:20am, they were calling for -18 friday morning.. airports around me are all -20 to -25 already, I'm thinking I may touch -30 now wow!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Why not. Besides this, the 3z RAP also looks a bit stronger at 21z tomorrow compared to the 0z NAM/GFS 996mb in the OK PH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like the 00z ECMWF went north/wetter. Precip about .5 for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Why not. Besides this, the 3z RAP also looks a bit stronger at 21z tomorrow compared to the 0z NAM/GFS 996mb in the OK PH ruc 23.png I'll take that in the middle of May for $500 Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Why not. Besides this, the 3z RAP also looks a bit stronger at 21z tomorrow compared to the 0z NAM/GFS 996mb in the OK PH Your final two straws to grasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 this thing has been dead for days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 this thing has been dead for days now Maybe dead for ORD, but I'll take 3", especially if it means a day's reprieve from this god-awful bitter cold crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah the trend is good. Normally I don't like to go much above the SREF plumes (21z mean was 3.something here) but I'm gonna go with first call of 5-7" and hope we don't backpedal too much on future runs, though as stated earlier, there should be reason for somewhat better confidence at this point with increased RAOB sampling and certainly the 12z runs will be interesting. I'm thinking maybe 12:1 ratios or so due to a somewhat shallow DGZ and a bit of a warmish layer aloft. Positive is that the bulk looks to fall prior to Saturday afternoon and thus prior to temps making a run toward freezing. Bullish. I think there's still some question to how far north better amounts get. While I like your top end potential, I'd probably broaden the call to 3-7". IND on the other hand is bearish for LAF. Despite being under a WWA, zone forecast is for around 2" total. I can't find a model right now that has that low of amounts for us, but whatever. Even I'm not that pessimistic. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 19. TEMPERATURE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .SATURDAY...NOT AS COLD. SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 18. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Maybe dead for ORD, but I'll take 3", especially if it means a day's reprieve from this god-awful bitter cold crap. sorry, i was replying to chicago storm obv still in play further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Bullish. I think there's still some question to how far north better amounts get. While I like your top end potential, I'd probably broaden the call to 3-7". IND on the other hand is bearish for LAF. Despite being under a WWA, zone forecast is for around 2" total. I can't find a model right now that has that low of amounts for us, but whatever. Even I'm not that pessimistic. I agree on some Northward wiggle room. For once we're north of the bulls eye 24 out. 06Z GFS looked like it jumped slightly north of the river with the track. Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Bullish. I think there's still some question to how far north better amounts get. While I like your top end potential, I'd probably broaden the call to 3-7". IND on the other hand is bearish for LAF. Despite being under a WWA, zone forecast is for around 2" total. I can't find a model right now that has that low of amounts for us, but whatever. Even I'm not that pessimistic. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 19. TEMPERATURE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .SATURDAY...NOT AS COLD. SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 18. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. They have 1-2" for Lebanon.. I guess at this point, even that's a winner for this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 They have 1-2" for Lebanon.. I guess at this point, even that's a winner for this winter! It's weird. Certainly contradicts their weather story on the front page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 9z plumes mean snowfall up to 7.8" for IND from the 3z run which had 6.8". Mixing has been re-introduced as well with total QPF up to 0.95". LAF bumps up to a mean of 6.0" total from the 5.3" on the 3z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 sorry, i was replying to chicago storm obv still in play further south I know, we've been out of it for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z NAM trying to work a weenie band on the northern edge in far northeastern MO to central IL to west-central IN. Otherwise, southern 1/2-ish of Ohio is the epicenter of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'll make an early call of 4-4.5" IMBY. Curious to see if any adjustments will be made today. Maybe a couple more baby steps north? We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 9z SREF mean is 0.41" liquid (4.9" snow) up here, contrary to the NAM still skirting us with just 0.1" or less. The op NAM is drier than 19/22 of SREF members, which should be a signal, unless it's an artifact or the SREF members being run at a lower resolution (are they?), in which case I could see them over-smoothing the northern cutoff, resulting in higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Final call: 2.8 imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'd probably go 2-3" at this point for mby but riding the northern cutoff like we are, could really go either way in a hurry. I'll only be flying in for the very end if it anyway (I land at MDW at about 23z) so I guess I don't care all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Call IMBY : DAB - 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 9z SREF mean is 0.41" liquid (4.9" snow) up here, contrary to the NAM still skirting us with just 0.1" or less. The op NAM is drier than 19/22 of SREF members, which should be a signal, unless it's an artifact or the SREF members being run at a lower resolution (are they?), in which case I could see them over-smoothing the northern cutoff, resulting in higher totals.Though the NAM has come north some the past few runs, it's consistently been on the southern edge of the envelope of operational guidance. I put more weight in the other models in the qpf/snow forecast. The SREF has been run at 16km resolution since 2012, so really not much different than the NAM. The RGEM is run at 10 km resolution and it has shown the fairly sharp cutoff, but it and the GGEM have been consistently farthest northEdit: re. your next post, 2-3" is a reasonable range for Valpo, pretty close to what I ended up with there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'll make an early call of 4-4.5" IMBY. Curious to see if any adjustments will be made today. Maybe a couple more baby steps north? We'll see I just said this exact same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z RGEM looks like it cut amounts for here a bit, though always hard to tell with the b/w maps in 12 hour intervals. FWIW, 12z 4km NAM total QPF for Indiana. Looks "bandy" with a bit of a screw-zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z 4K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z RGEM total QPF and snowfall maps. For central Indiana...looks like 4-6" for LAF/OKK, 6-8" for IND/MIE and a little band of 8-10" around HUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 A little better look at the 12z RGEM from WB. Think my guessed snowfall amounts for IN locales from above are a bit too high...probably should shave off an inch or two. Still, pretty good hit for most of central IN...better for I-70 and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I wonder if there are any more north movements left in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Relative noise level changes on the 12z GFS, but fairly similar to the 0z run. 0z GFS total QPF: 12z GFS total QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z GGEM slashed totals in 1/2 for LAF. Went from about 0.60" on the 0z run to about 0.30" on the 12z run. Warning criteria snowfall for I-70 and south in central IN remains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z GGEM slashed totals in 1/2 for LAF. Went from about 0.60" on the 0z run to about 0.30" on the 12z run. Warning criteria snowfall for I-70 and south in central IN remains though. at this range shouldn't you favor the rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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