Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I-70 in Indiana finally gonna cash in on some snow! I'm expecting 1-3 Imby. boiler up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 As long as we don't go above freezing. YYZ has a chance to go an entire month without a day above freezing. As nice as the record is, I can get by without saying I lived through that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z GFS Snow Map: nice north trend coming back from that too extreme south trend the last 4 runs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'll be shocked if we (Detroit) somehow managed to reel in a nice event in the 11th hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 As nice as the record is, I can get by without saying I lived through that. Two back to back cold Winters. Very reminiscent of the 60s and 70s in Toronto atm. But its been way to dry of late. Last time we had above average precip was September, lol. If we can salvage 2" from this, it'll atleast be something considering how dry its been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'll be shocked if we (Detroit) somehow managed to reel in a nice event in the 11th hour... I am fine with a 2-4" 3-5", what the GFS/RGEM are showing, would be perfectly fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nice little bubble of 6" near Toronto on 0z gfs . Hopefully the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm out visiting Utah and was traveling all day, so I'm just catching up now. I usually try to subtly (or sometimes not so subtly) chastise people whose knee-jerk reaction is that the models are terrible this winter, but wow, this is shades of Boxing Day 2010. Obviously not nearly as much at stake but this kind of model inconsistency at less than 36 hours out is really something to behold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nice little bubble of 6" near Toronto on 0z gfs . Hopefully the trend continues. I noticed the RGEM had a little screwhole right over Hamilton. Don't see that too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I am fine with a 2-4" 3-5", what the GFS/RGEM are showing, would be perfectly fine. I'm indifferent to it, either way (I got the big dog I wanted). But it will be interesting to see if we continue to trend back towards the 12z runs from yesterday as the wave is fully sampled, within 48 hours from the onset no less (not saying we will). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm out visiting Utah and was traveling all day, so I'm just catching up now. I usually try to subtly (or sometimes not so subtly) chastise people whose knee-jerk reaction is that the models are terrible this winter, but wow, this is shades of Boxing Day 2010. Obviously not nearly as much at stake but this kind of model inconsistency at less than 36 hours out is really something to behold. What part of Utah? I live in Twin Falls (Idaho) about 3 hours North of Salt Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm out visiting Utah and was traveling all day, so I'm just catching up now. I usually try to subtly (or sometimes not so subtly) chastise people whose knee-jerk reaction is that the models are terrible this winter, but wow, this is shades of Boxing Day 2010. Obviously not nearly as much at stake but this kind of model inconsistency at less than 36 hours out is really something to behold. I can't recall any storm last season or this season in which the models showed consistency this close in. But by all means, please correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm out visiting Utah and was traveling all day, so I'm just catching up now. I usually try to subtly (or sometimes not so subtly) chastise people whose knee-jerk reaction is that the models are terrible this winter, but wow, this is shades of Boxing Day 2010. Obviously not nearly as much at stake but this kind of model inconsistency at less than 36 hours out is really something to behold. Don't know if you were here for it but we had a storm in Feb 2011 (right after the GHD storm) that is the poster child for last minute shifts. You would not believe the kind of north trend that thing pulled off in the final hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I can't recall any storm last season or this season in which the models showed consistency this close in. But by all means, please correct me if I'm wrong. Nor can I. And this isnt like saying it in a bad way...some last minute shifts benefit us, some dont (hell last winter most benefited) but I cannot think of one with consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Don't know if you were here for it but we had a storm in Feb 2011 (right after the GHD storm) that is the poster child for last minute shifts. You would not believe the kind of north trend that thing pulled off in the final hours. I remember that one. That was like a 200 mile in 24 hours shift. Reminiscent of some the more memorable "NW trends" from the early to mid 00s (Dec 13-14, 2000, Christmas 2002, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm indifferent to it, either way (I got the big dog I wanted). But it will be interesting to see if we continue to trend back towards the 12z runs from yesterday as the wave is fully sampled, within 48 hours from the onset no less (not saying we will). Adding a good 3-4" to the snowpack would just been insane. I mean...we are staring at 2 winters in a row with well over a month straight of foot+ snowpack. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Don't know if you were here for it but we had a storm in Feb 2011 (right after the GHD storm) that is the poster child for last minute shifts. You would not believe the kind of north trend that thing pulled off in the final hours. Which event was that? Can't remember off the top of my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Which event was that? Can't remember off the top of my head February 5. It missed you to the south but we picked up several inches. Like snowstormcanuck said, it's one of the all-timers in terms of last minute nw shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nor can I. And this isnt like saying it in a bad way...some last minute shifts benefit us, some dont (hell last winter most benefited) but I cannot think of one with consistency. Even Paul Kocin this morning seemed to be confused with the drastic shifts (per his WPC discussion). So it's not just us noticing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I noticed the RGEM had a little screwhole right over Hamilton. Don't see that too often. No kidding, definitely not the case with the Superbowl storm!I anticipate some further strengthening and better closing of the low as better sampling takes place by 12z tomorrow likely resulting in ~15cm for areas of Southern Ontario along and south of a line from Sarnia to Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 A NW shift with this would imply a better phasing situation with the northern/southern stream. That seems farfetched but I wouldn't throw that possibility out just yet. There's room for atleast another 50-100 shift IMO, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No kidding, definitely not the case with the Superbowl storm! I anticipate some further strengthening and better closing of the low as better sampling takes place by 12z tomorrow likely resulting in ~15cm for areas of Southern Ontario along and south of a line from Sarnia to Toronto. I think I'm at the point where I'm going to enjoy the temps near freezing more than the snow itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looking real good for the LAF bros and most of Ohio. Congrats to you guys down there. First call for here/QC is 0.2-1.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 February 5. It missed you to the south but we picked up several inches. Like snowstormcanuck said, it's one of the all-timers in terms of last minute nw shift. 4.8" of partly sunny here if I remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEMInteresting screw hole on totals around Dayton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What part of Utah? I live in Twin Falls (Idaho) about 3 hours North of Salt Lake. SLC. U/Utah, specifically. Don't know if you were here for it but we had a storm in Feb 2011 (right after the GHD storm) that is the poster child for last minute shifts. You would not believe the kind of north trend that thing pulled off in the final hours. Nope, got here in Aug of 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looking real good for the LAF bros and most of Ohio. Congrats to you guys down there. First call for here/QC is 0.2-1.0". Yeah the trend is good. Normally I don't like to go much above the SREF plumes (21z mean was 3.something here) but I'm gonna go with first call of 5-7" and hope we don't backpedal too much on future runs, though as stated earlier, there should be reason for somewhat better confidence at this point with increased RAOB sampling and certainly the 12z runs will be interesting. I'm thinking maybe 12:1 ratios or so due to a somewhat shallow DGZ and a bit of a warmish layer aloft. Positive is that the bulk looks to fall prior to Saturday afternoon and thus prior to temps making a run toward freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah the trend is good. Normally I don't like to go much above the SREF plumes (21z mean was 3.something here) but I'm gonna go with first call of 5-7" and hope we don't backpedal too much on future runs, though as stated earlier, there should be reason for somewhat better confidence at this point with increased RAOB sampling and certainly the 12z runs will be interesting. I'm thinking maybe 12:1 ratios or so due to a somewhat shallow DGZ and a bit of a warmish layer aloft. Positive is that the bulk looks to fall prior to Saturday afternoon and thus prior to temps making a run toward freezing. Definitely looking like an enjoyable event with the RGEM showing around 18hrs of steady snowfall there. Looks like you won't have to worry about mixing issues there for once, so you can sit back and enjoy it without sweating that out lol. I think the Euro will come in a little further north and a little more juicy to match the other 00z runs. I think 5-7" is a pretty good call for there at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z UKMET with 2-3" for the GTA. The GGEM remains pretty bullish as does the GFS. Both show ~3-6". A small NW shift on the UKMET would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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