Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Other than liking the chances for accumulating snow, don't feel very comfortable going with a call yet. But I'm not big on ratios for this one as there's not much of a DGZ to speak of and highs here on Saturday look to be in the low 30s, though most of the snow may fall before afternoon if current timing holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z RPM Congrats Beckley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Shocking to no one at this point, but the 12z Euro went weaker/south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 A little 12z ECMWF comparison, yesterday and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 A little 12z ECMWF comparison, yesterday and today. Total QPF from those two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's laughable how quickly this is becoming yet another sheared out/suppressed/positive tilt POS. As long as Shredder sticks around and the subtropical jet remains embarassingly pitiful, I guess we might as well get used to it. Feb 1st-2nd, 2015 really was a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's laughable how quickly this is becoming yet another sheared out/positive tilt POS. As long as Shredder sticks around, I guess we might as well get used to it. Feb 1st-2nd, 2015 really was a fluke. I was just thinking the same. GHDII was simply atmospheric magic in the happening. I still think this wave (funny that's all it's going to be now) will bring another dab for most of the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 LMK just issued a winter storm watch for the Kentucky Ohio River counties and south. HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY204 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015 /104 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015/...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AMCST/ FRIDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS INEFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY.* TIMING: WIND CHILL READINGS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION STARTING EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY CHANGE TO RAIN BY MIDDAY SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.* MAIN IMPACT: BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT DANGEROUS TO BE OUTSIDE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET OR ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY UP TO DATE OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS EXACT AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE STILL IN QUESTION.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...DRESS IN LAYERS TO TRAP BODY HEAT AND TO INSULATE YOU FROM THECOLD AIR. COVER AS MUCH EXPOSED SKIN AS POSSIBLE AND STAY DRY.SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP...BUT THE EXACTTIMING...LOCATION...AND INTENSITY ARE YET UNDETERMINED. STAYTUNED FOR UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Call me a bit perplexed at the placement of the winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP...BUT THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND INTENSITY ARE YET UNDETERMINED. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. lol.... someone might get a lot of wintry precip...we just don't know who, how much, or what kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Call me a bit perplexed at the placement of the winter storm watch. You must really be having a lot of fun with this forecast. Lol. I think down there they just decided to pull the trigger and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Call me a bit perplexed at the placement of the winter storm watch. With the weather we've had this week, I think they're just wanting to warn people about the upcoming storm and the hazards that will come with it. I live in a major metro area and my street is still completely snow covered. lol.... someone might get a lot of wintry precip...we just don't know who, how much, or what kind. I laughed myself. The models are showing some bizzare totals. Canadian would switch us all over to rain while the EURO had 10.5 inches of snow for Somerset in the southeast part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Call me a bit perplexed at the placement of the winter storm watch. Models have been showing some good front end precip in that area. I have to think it's for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Models have been showing some good front end precip in that area. I have to think it's for that. Yeah but you would think Louisville would go ahead and include their counties North of the river if they are going to throw up a winter storm watch already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The up and downs by people from every model run is enjoyable to read. From the beginning this system had variable model out written all over it. A bunch of unorganized S/Ws in BC, GOA & southern AK becoming organize and cutting off from the NW flow over CA with a leading s/w piece getting sent off into the large northern stream. While the porn runs yesterday were fun for MBY I was not sold at all that they were close to reality. The models are doing what they can with the limited data but I think it will take until 12Z Friday before the lead S/Ws strength is better understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 A lot of clunkers (like sub 2") on the 15z SREF plumes for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's laughable how quickly this is becoming yet another sheared out/suppressed/positive tilt POS. As long as Shredder sticks around and the subtropical jet remains embarassingly pitiful, I guess we might as well get used to it. Feb 1st-2nd, 2015 really was a fluke. I agree. If the projected -PNA verifies and stays consistent, we can eventually cool down the PDO region and increase our chances of a La Nina next Winter. Preceding El Nino's can be beneficial for our area. A La Nina weather pattern with an enhanced STJ is golden for our region. 1998-99, 2007-08, and 2010-11 are good examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 A lot of clunkers (like sub 2") on the 15z SREF plumes for LAF. 12z EPS mean is somewhere around 0.30" QPF for us. And the 18z NAM gives us more than the 0.05"-ish from the 12z run. Progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 KIND just went 3-4 with locally higher amounts for Northern half of their grids, removed mention of sleet for the most part except south of I-70. They don't believe the models are handling the snow pack down south well. Meanwhile 10 miles to my North IWX is saying 1-2 with ice and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z RGEM not bad for the Detroit-Cleveland-Toronto folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Lol at Mike Ryan at IND today..... EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT STILL HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE TO HAMMER OUT SPECIFICS AND SNOW VS ICE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MODEL SUITE THROWS OUT THE DREADED LAST MINUTE SHIFT NORTH THAT HAS BEEN A STAPLE OF WINTER2014-15 IN THE OHIO VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Well...at least it won't be rain for most...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Well...at least it won't be rain for most...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow, that has yet another north shift or 2 written all over it, this may just be Central MI's big dog finally... ^^^ lol @ me after looking at 12z euro ensembles yesterday... :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 OT: but I always find wind chill advisories in Miami hilarious lol... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL414 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENINGTO 9 AM EST FRIDAY...* WIND CHILL VALUES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT LOWER 30S BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE METRO AREAS.* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...POSSIBLY UP TO 10 MPH NEAR THE COAST...WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD TEMPS TO CREATE COLD WIND CHILLS. Wow brrrrr, low of 39 with a 30 wind chill lol (i'd be going for a swim and catching a tan after the cold here lately) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 OT: but I always find wind chill advisories in Miami hilarious lol... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL414 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENINGTO 9 AM EST FRIDAY...* WIND CHILL VALUES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT LOWER 30S BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE METRO AREAS.* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...POSSIBLY UP TO 10 MPH NEAR THE COAST...WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD TEMPS TO CREATE COLD WIND CHILLS. Wow brrrrr, low of 39 with a 30 wind chill lol (i'd be going for a swim and catching a tan after the cold here lately) At 4PM, Miami's dew point was 19...I imagine that is close to an all-time record low. Also, Miami may drop into the 30s tonight...which is extremely rare. I believe it occurs once every 3-4 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 At 4PM, Miami's dew point was 19...I imagine that is close to an all-time record low. Also, Miami may drop into the 30s tonight...which is extremely rare. I believe it occurs once every 3-4 years? It does seem pretty rare, the northern half of florida has hard freeze warnings tonight, and the southern half freeze warnings, hope they don't loose too many orange trees or other farm stuff tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z RGEM not bad for the Detroit-Cleveland-Toronto folks. How much is it showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How much is it showing? 2-3" (more across IN/OH). But keep in mind the GEM has been the most bullish of all of the models. It's probably still playing catch up with the suppressed solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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