buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow at the 12z NAM...if we end up with that as the final solution. Let's remember it's only one model but still, the overall recent trends aren't too favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow at the 12z NAM...if we end up with that as the final solution. Let's remember it's only one model but still, the overall recent trends aren't too favorable. the Saturday 12z runs before the presidents day storm were the runs where they lost that storm and crushed it. edit: not that I want this one back to the way it looked yesterday....but an adjustment halfway back to yesterday would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 the Saturday 12z runs before the presidents day storm were the runs where they lost that storm and crushed it. edit: not that I want this one back to the way it looked yesterday....but an adjustment halfway back to yesterday would be nice Yeah I was thinking that. Doesn't mean it happens again. West coast ridge still looks to be in a favorable position for the subforum but it's not gonna matter much if we can't get the energy to eject favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yeah I was thinking that. Doesn't mean it happens again. West coast ridge still looks to be in a favorable position for the subforum but it's not gonna matter much if we can't get the energy to eject favorably. then that night....00z they all jumped north....then pretty much held serve except for some adjustment noise. Probably won't have a good handle on this until 00z with this one either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 this isn't coming back north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 this isn't coming back north I think something like yesterday's 12z ggem run is probably done. But I don't see why a further north track/stronger wave than the nam is showing couldn't happen. We've seen this song before with the last storm. 48 hr rgem has a 1005 low in northwest AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think something like yesterday's 12z ggem run is probably done. But I don't see why a further north track/stronger wave than the nam is showing couldn't happen. We've seen this song before with the last storm. 48 hr rgem has a 1005 low in northwest AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wish there was a standalone clip of that "dis exhibit iz clozed" line from the Simpsons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Compared to 12z NAM at same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GFS...meh. But, most of Ohio gets at least 3"...so that's not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 After getting missed both south and north by the last two storms, a moderate snow would feel like a victory for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GFS...meh. But, most of Ohio gets at least 3"...so that's not too bad. honestly I'd rather take my chances with a stronger low and a juicy frontend thump followed a dry slot. Better than being scraped with a 1-3 deal. We've had plenty of those yawners already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The Canadian is stronger and northwest through 48 hours. Some weakening from yesterday isn't that surprising, but we know the NAM is bad, and you have to be hesitant to take the GFS seriously until it has support from the others with this morning's runs, especially with several ensemble members stronger and further nw. We'll see. GGEM should be rolling in here in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll take the GFS in heartbeat. I'll be in Etobicoke this weekend. A couple of inches to push around with the shovel? Sold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll take the GFS in heartbeat. I'll be in Etobicoke this weekend. A couple of inches to push around with the shovel? Sold! We are entering that part of the winter where people stop shoveling when its under 2" on there driveways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 flat solution ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GGEM coming in weaker/further south than its 0z run. Trend may or may not be your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GGEM coming in weaker/further south than its 0z run. Trend may or may not be your friend. That's a nice hit here but your last sentence hit on it...the trend. One thing these shifts are doing is allowing us a little breathing room if it does come back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GGEM still decent for Indiana. Make due with what ya got I guess. Not sure how the 0.50" contour manages to work around LAF...but you know, silly models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GGEM coming in weaker/further south than its 0z run. Trend may or may not be your friend. like I said, I'd rather take my chances with something like the ggem than the nam. I don't care if I get taint.... I'm just tired of the 1-3 powdered sugar events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z Ukie at 48 and 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z Ukie at 48 and 60 hours. ukie 48.gif ukie 60.gif looks a lot like the gfs. Looks like the solution is a decent low in Oklahoma that weakens northeast along the front into a glorified wave by the time it gets to northeast ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We are entering that part of the winter where people stop shoveling when its under 2" on there driveways. Not me. Towards the end of winter, I start shovelling dustings. Come March you never know when it'll be your last chance until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z Ukie at 48 and 60 hours. ukie 48.gif ukie 60.gif precip through 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The main southern stream s/w has potential but it seems like the main difference in the models recently is that this vort rotating around the polar vortex acts to flatten/shunt the southern wave to the SE quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 0z Ukie total QPF (thru 0z Sunday) 12z Ukie total QPF (thru 12z Sunday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 i'm not that excited about this one Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yep. we threaded the needle with GHDII but the pattern sucks, it's hard to get cutters when the super persistent h5 trough is centered where it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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