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OBS: Snow Monday night/Tuesday 2/16-17/2015


famartin

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mcd0076.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN VIRGINIA...CNTRL MARYLAND...DELAWARE
AND SRN NEW JERSEY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 170333Z - 170800Z

SUMMARY...INCREASING SNOW RATES...UP TO 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GREATER BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

DISCUSSION...COINCIDING WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...MODELS INDICATE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL INTENSIFY WITHIN A PIVOTING BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME. THIS APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...AND AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN SNOW RATES...IN THE
PRESENCE OF SATURATED...SUB-FREEZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

OUTPUT FROM THE LATEST NCEP-SREF AND RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OR BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER
ON THE ORDER OF .4 TO .5 INCHES...AND THE COLD NATURE OF THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTIVE OF RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER
RATIOS...THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD
IMPACT AREAS AS FAR WEST AND NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY SNOW APPEAR TO EXIST
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREA...PERHAPS DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY BY 09Z.

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Is that 20-30 DBZ band reaching Allentown, PA now putting down accumulating snow?  I would think it would be.  That band has moved about 30-40 miles to the North while moving generally to the NE.  If the band holds together and maintains latitude, moving east along 78, that would give me some snow here in the Edison area (about 10 miles south of the northern edge of the current band) and hopefully give snow to folks as far north as the southern half of NYC/LI.  Of course, the band could fall apart or start edging SE, too - I'm not an expert in this, just looking at current trajectory and projecting...

I am in the center of that band and it just started flaking, not too impressive no coating yet

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Is that 20-30 DBZ band reaching Allentown, PA now putting down accumulating snow?  I would think it would be.  That band has moved about 30-40 miles to the North while moving generally to the NE.  If the band holds together and maintains latitude, moving east along 78, that would give me some snow here in the Edison area (about 10 miles south of the northern edge of the current band) and hopefully give snow to folks as far north as the southern half of NYC/LI.  Of course, the band could fall apart or start edging SE, too - I'm not an expert in this, just looking at current trajectory and projecting...

 

 

I'm pretty much right in the middle of that band now. It's moistening up the air quick. Now a steady light snow with pretty big flakes. Continuing to pick up in intensity. Going to stay up a bit longer to see how this pans out. 

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Hmm, I stand corrected from what I said earlier. Looks like I'm getting the band too, air is quickly moistening up here.

 

Temp: 13

DP: 8

Humidity: 74 ( changed to 80 in just 6 minutes or so )

 

Oh my, just beautiful. No melting, and I can clearly see the shape of the snowflakes on surfaces. Classic shape. Falling at a slightly steadier pace compared to last time, very nice.

 

I'd say a coating right now. I didn't think I would even have this much snow until like 3 AM, lol. We have got to fight this dry air, we have some potential, but half of the snow we could of have has been wasted.

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Hmm, I stand corrected from what I said earlier. Looks like I'm getting the band too, air is quickly moistening up here.

 

Temp: 13

DP: 7

Humidity: 74

 

Oh my, just beautiful. No melting, and I can clearly see the shape of the snowflakes on surfaces. Classic shape. Falling at a slightly steadier pace compared to last time, very nice.

Just curious if you were expecting any at 13 degrees? ;)

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