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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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COD radar definitely does not have the typical virga snowhole look. Returns are advancing right at the site. Little if any virga showing up north of the site. Can't say I expected that. I figured there'd be a fight for a time. Probably doesn't mean anything totals wise. Just less annoyance than usual. 

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Basically stops snowing here after 8pm and only light before that...hope it's struggling with the dry air

I'm guessing you're not talking about the 17Z run that fills back in near the end? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=hrrr&area=east-us&cycle=20150216%2017%20UTC&param=sim_radar_max&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area

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Hope the hrrr is wrong

 

i wouldn't sweat it -- i'm actually pleasantly surprised about how fast things have to be moistening up out there (at least based on what i figured out early than I expected returns out west). i don't have a good reason for why the HRRR is wrong -- obviously playing up the dry air -- could still be right i guess

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i wouldn't sweat it -- i'm actually pleasantly surprised about how fast things have to be moistening up out there (at least based on what i figured out early than I expected returns out west). i don't have a good reason for why the HRRR is wrong -- obviously playing up the dry air -- could still be right i guess

It kinda looks like what the current loop is showing... seems like once the returns get to the east of the mountains they are dissipating.  That would make sense given that the gfs is showing like .1-.3 for a lot of central MD

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