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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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did they just go into a full-on salt mode after 2am or something? it was kind of impressive given the temps. or maybe the sun helped. i slept in so i didn't see the road conditions at 7am to judge.

I mentioned this last night. Pre salting isn't so snow doesn't stick on roads, especially at night when cold. It's so it can quickly work when it stops snowing. Assuming no rain to wash it off, that chemical stays on roads and immediately starts working againwhen snow is plowed off it, and it can breath a bit -- especially in an early Dec, Feb or March sun. OPM and schools need to figure this out, could save a few closures each year.

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I'm not trying to renew the snow depth debate up here, but I was catching up on some sleep during that discussion.  For anyone that lives near me and looks at my obs for comparison, I hope that mine are considered accurate and reasonable.  Usually, if there is any doubt on my part of the reasonableness of my obs, particularly snowfall, I generally lean low than high.  However, this morning at 6AM, the last of the snow was just ending (those really cool, fake looking flakes that belong on chocolate ice cream) and I feel my measurements were pretty much dead-on.  I measured and took core samples with my Coco and consistently got 3.5" except near a tree where I got 3.3".  I melted the core sample and came up with .31" of liquid for a ratio of greater than 11:1.  That caused me to pause when I read the other ratio reports on here that were all lower.  Maybe I was a couple of tenths too high with my snow?  But after looking at other Coco reports, especially north of here, there is consistent trend of higher snow ratios the further north you go (maybe because of the heavy banding that happened?), so, I feel comfortable with the accuracy of my report total.

 

There are three others that measure very close to me, RR, a public spotter, and another Cocorahs member, and I am consistently at least slightly lower than all three, including today.  The public spotter is always higher than both me and the other Coco member that lives nearly on top of him, so I don't consider his reports accurate.  But there is a consistent theme in all of the snow events here that RR gets the most snow, then the other Coco reporter, and then me.  Admittedly, in the past I have quietly questioned RR's and the other reporting station's totals, but now I mainly attribute the difference to the possibility of micro-climates.  I live very close to the beltway in a very urban setting.  The other Coco station is due west of me in a valley somewhat further south of the beltway but no more urban than me, and RR is (I think) over a ridge in a much more rural area setting on the north side of the beltway.  We form a nearly equilateral triangle with the distance between any of us roughly 2.5 miles,.   I'm not sure it matters much, but this is also an undulating area with regards to terrain and there is a substantial difference in elevation between the three of us.  Interestingly, I'm the highest at around 490', while they both are around 350', so maybe that plays into it too, though, if anything, I would have expected the opposite data.

 

Anyway, I'd be curious to see RR's snow ratios from this and other storms because then we could compare that data too. I already have that data for the other Coco station.  They reported 3.7" of snow today from .30" of liquid which is about 12.3 : 1. Mine was about 11.3 : 1.

 

Again, I'm not doubting RR's totals or the other Coco reporting station. I just find it interesting.

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Overstating snowfall rates is standard practice around here. People are excited to see snow, so the reality of how the snow is falling is often clouded by that. With the number of people who were saying it was "pouring snow" or "ripping," you'd have expected to see much higher totals. You just have to account for it when reading peoples' reports.

People in this forum way more, realistic, though than some in other forums that should remain nameless. At times this year, people have been talking about "whiteouts" or "heaviest snow all year" in a place like Manhattan. But they seem to forget everyone nowdays is never far from a webcam, so you check one, and you see visibility is really like a mile.

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.10, .12, .15, .11 dosent really do it for us per 6 hours it seems. Even when people were saying it was raking..it really wasnt. You need to have a .25 to .50 in a 6 hour period to rake. It was a nice storm but overall when .40 to .50 is forecasted with temps in the low teens...you just except more. It was nice to see snow falling...just stressful not seeing it accumulate

 

There were a lot of accusations of radar hallucinations  being made last night.  Oh, the irony.

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Overstating snowfall rates is standard practice around here.  People are excited to see snow, so the reality of how the snow is falling is often clouded by that.  With the number of people who were saying it was "pouring snow" or "ripping," you'd have expected to see much higher totals.  You just have to account for it when reading peoples' reports.

 

I had 0.5 viz a number of times,. and even less for a short period..It's just that the flakes weren't very big....

 

I'm not trying to renew the snow depth debate up here, but I was catching up on some sleep during that discussion.  For anyone that lives near me and looks at my obs for comparison, I hope that mine are considered accurate and reasonable.  Usually, if there is any doubt on my part of the reasonableness of my obs, particularly snowfall, I generally lean low than high.  However, this morning at 6AM, the last of the snow was just ending (those really cool, fake looking flakes that belong on chocolate ice cream) and I feel my measurements were pretty much dead-on.  I measured and took core samples with my Coco and consistently got 3.5" except near a tree where I got 3.3".  I melted the core sample and came up with .31" of liquid for a ratio of greater than 11:1.  That caused me to pause when I read the other ratio reports on here that were all lower.  Maybe I was a couple of tenths too high with my snow?  But after looking at other Coco reports, especially north of here, there is consistent trend of higher snow ratios the further north you go (maybe because of the heavy banding that happened?), so, I feel comfortable with the accuracy of my report total.

 

There are three others that measure very close to me, RR, a public spotter, and another Cocorahs member, and I am consistently at least slightly lower than all three, including today.  The public spotter is always higher than both me and the other Coco member that lives nearly on top of him, so I don't consider his reports accurate.  But there is a consistent theme in all of the snow events here that RR gets the most snow, then the other Coco reporter, and then me.  Admittedly, in the past I have quietly questioned RR's and the other reporting station's totals, but now I mainly attribute the difference to the possibility of micro-climates.  I live very close to the beltway in a very urban setting.  The other Coco station is due west of me in a valley somewhat further south of the beltway but no more urban than me, and RR is (I think) over a ridge in a much more rural area setting on the north side of the beltway.  We form a nearly equilateral triangle with the distance between any of us roughly 2.5 miles,.   I'm not sure it matters much, but this is also an undulating area with regards to terrain and there is a substantial difference in elevation between the three of us.  Interestingly, I'm the highest at around 490', while they both are around 350', so maybe that plays into it too, though, if anything, I would have expected the opposite data.

 

Anyway, I'd be curious to see RR's snow ratios from this and other storms because then we could compare that data too. I already have that data for the other Coco station.  They reported 3.7" of snow today from .30" of liquid which is about 12.3 : 1. Mine was about 11.3 : 1.

 

Again, I'm not doubting RR's totals or the other Coco reporting station. I just find it interesting.

 

This was a no-brainer storm to measure.  I stuck my ruler in like 25 different places on several surfaces (metal table, glass table, deck) and got the same measurement to the tenth of an inch like 23 times.  Nobody should have an inaccurate measurement unless they are lazy,an inflater, a grass slant sticker, or just don't care that much about getting it exact (which is totally fine - rounding to the quarter-inch is pretty standard for many of us without an ideal snowboard set up and/or in windy storms).  I round to the quarter inch for my personal records, but since I have been reporting my totals to Sterling this winter and last winter, I measure to the tenth for those purposes.  This storm was as simple as it gets.

 

ETA - there was more discrete banding than usual with this storm so while in the means it was a pretty good N/S gradient, there are going to be slightly differing totals over a small area.

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Overstating snowfall rates is standard practice around here.  People are excited to see snow, so the reality of how the snow is falling is often clouded by that.  With the number of people who were saying it was "pouring snow" or "ripping," you'd have expected to see much higher totals.  You just have to account for it when reading peoples' reports.

100% true. I never got more than .75" an hour rates. Even when I went out around 2 AM in the heaviest bands it was 80% fine pixie dust and 20% small dendrities. 

 

Jan 6th is still my favorite storm of the season. Nightime start, daytime end, great rates, local jackpot, schools rushing to keep up, low sun, etc. Great storm.

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I'm not trying to renew the snow depth debate up here, but I was catching up on some sleep during that discussion.  For anyone that lives near me and looks at my obs for comparison, I hope that mine are considered accurate and reasonable.  Usually, if there is any doubt on my part of the reasonableness of my obs, particularly snowfall, I generally lean low than high.  However, this morning at 6AM, the last of the snow was just ending (those really cool, fake looking flakes that belong on chocolate ice cream) and I feel my measurements were pretty much dead-on.  I measured and took core samples with my Coco and consistently got 3.5" except near a tree where I got 3.3".  I melted the core sample and came up with .31" of liquid for a ratio of greater than 11:1.  That caused me to pause when I read the other ratio reports on here that were all lower.  Maybe I was a couple of tenths too high with my snow?  But after looking at other Coco reports, especially north of here, there is consistent trend of higher snow ratios the further north you go (maybe because of the heavy banding that happened?), so, I feel comfortable with the accuracy of my report total.

 

There are three others that measure very close to me, RR, a public spotter, and another Cocorahs member, and I am consistently at least slightly lower than all three, including today.  The public spotter is always higher than both me and the other Coco member that lives nearly on top of him, so I don't consider his reports accurate.  But there is a consistent theme in all of the snow events here that RR gets the most snow, then the other Coco reporter, and then me.  Admittedly, in the past I have quietly questioned RR's and the other reporting station's totals, but now I mainly attribute the difference to the possibility of micro-climates.  I live very close to the beltway in a very urban setting.  The other Coco station is due west of me in a valley somewhat further south of the beltway but no more urban than me, and RR is (I think) over a ridge in a much more rural area setting on the north side of the beltway.  We form a nearly equilateral triangle with the distance between any of us roughly 2.5 miles,.   I'm not sure it matters much, but this is also an undulating area with regards to terrain and there is a substantial difference in elevation between the three of us.  Interestingly, I'm the highest at around 490', while they both are around 350', so maybe that plays into it too, though, if anything, I would have expected the opposite data.

 

Anyway, I'd be curious to see RR's snow ratios from this and other storms because then we could compare that data too. I already have that data for the other Coco station.  They reported 3.7" of snow today from .30" of liquid which is about 12.3 : 1. Mine was about 11.3 : 1.

 

Again, I'm not doubting RR's totals or the other Coco reporting station. I just find it interesting.

 

Thanks for the detailed response. Again, I'm not accusing anyone of inflating, or measuring incorrectly, but it is quite a large difference in total. a couple tenths of an inch is within the realm of realistic. more than .5" and i have to raise an eyebrow, purely from the data side of things. 

 

anyways -- it is what it is, but thanks again for responding. we shall see how everything shakes out when i go to make a rather boring snow map this year ;) 

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This was a no-brainer storm to measure. I stuck my ruler in like 25 different places on several surfaces (metal table, glass table, deck) and got the same measurement to the tenth of an inch like 23 times. Nobody should have an inaccurate measurement unless they are lazy,an inflater, a grass slant sticker, or just don't care that much about getting it exact (which is totally fine - rounding to the quarter-inch is pretty standard for many of us without an ideal snowboard set up and/or in windy storms

Including me, there are four CoCoRahs reporters within a couple of miles of my house. Everybody was within 0.2".

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Thanks for the detailed response. Again, I'm not accusing anyone of inflating, or measuring incorrectly, but it is quite a large difference in total. a couple tenths of an inch is within the realm of realistic. more than .5" and i have to raise an eyebrow, purely from the data side of things. 

 

anyways -- it is what it is, but thanks again for responding. we shall see how everything shakes out when i go to make a rather boring snow map this year ;)

 

I got 4.1", and Ian 3 miles up the road got 5" (which was corroborated by a 5.3" spotter measurement at the zoo).  Some localized areas  got under some good bands/banding that led to more spread in a small area than many storms.

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Thanks for the detailed response. Again, I'm not accusing anyone of inflating, or measuring incorrectly, but it is quite a large difference in total. a couple tenths of an inch is within the realm of realistic. more than .5" and i have to raise an eyebrow, purely from the data side of things. 

 

anyways -- it is what it is, but thanks again for responding. we shall see how everything shakes out when i go to make a rather boring snow map this year ;)

Actually I think the snow map will kind of be interesting. It'll hopefully show how we made a late-winter comeback :)

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I always look forward to them, though I can't remember how many you've done for the region. Three?

Only two, if you count the 09/10 map I made way back before I was even a member. May have done a few on the fly but last year was the first I actually asked for lat/long from people to make one.

Still have last years list so I won't need everyone's location information again unless they are new. Will probably start pulling data together in the next week or so.

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Only two, if you count the 09/10 map I made way back before I was even a member. May have done a few on the fly but last year was the first I actually asked for lat/long from people to make one.

Still have last years list so I won't need everyone's location information again unless they are new. Will probably start pulling data together in the next week or so.

 

Sounds good!  :)

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