Fodie77 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Flakes officially falling. 20 deg. Richmond (West Henrico) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Light snow has started falling in Dale City. Very good sign, not much if anything of consequence lost to dry air. Temp 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishStorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Bethesda 16/-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My DP is still -15...Might take a few for any flakes to reach the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Both the NAM and GFS have a "warm layer" of about -5 or -7C from 800-700mb around 6z when we should be getting our best rates. That's making me a bit cautious on going 15:1. Not sure where the best omega is falling. If it's a little higher, that would be good. The profiles around 0z tonight look ideal for dendrite growth, so we should maximize that lighter precip this evening. yeah i noticed that -- but i didn't really check the omega profile but as you said I think we really do maximize the lighter period -- and I think those along the MD/PA border stay pretty optimal the entire period (however probably miss out on the better rates around 6z) -- i guess if i was held to a forecast i'd say a QPF-weighted average or 12/13:1 DC and south and 15/16:1 north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You guys sure it's snowing this early. But it's so dry! Drrrryyyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 what is the general opinion of the ratios on 1/30/10 -- BWI and IAD were both low 20s:1 from the climo data but I get there is some skepticism about the measurements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 14.9/-5 here, after a high of 15.7. I wonder how low we'll go once evaporative cooling kicks in after the precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lgt. Snow and 13F in Haymarket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Overall 15-1 is a fair guess on my part without getting into the #'s too much. I expect higher ratios for some of early and possibly tail end stuff. In the middle could easily be 10-12:1. I highly doubt any period will feature less than 10:1 around here. No, it's not going to be less than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You guys sure it's snowing this early. But it's so dry! DrrrryyyyLooks like the stuff is just south of DC. Seems to be moving in pretty fast. Still 5pm start time for DC, PG, central AA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Probably up to .3-.5" here in CHO. Really coming down at a nice clip. Fine, powdery snow. Really hoping this means that the dry slot that seemed to be showing up on some of the models isn't going to verify, especially now that the column seems to be nice and damp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 yeah i noticed that -- but i didn't really check the omega profile but as you said I think we really do maximize the lighter period -- and I think those along the MD/PA border stay pretty optimal the entire period (however probably miss out on the better rates around 6z) -- i guess if i was held to a forecast i'd say a QPF-weighted average or 12/13:1 DC and south and 15/16:1 north of DC. I think that sounds pretty reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Flurries in spotsy have begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Probably up to .3-.5" here in CHO. Really coming down at a nice clip. Fine, powdery snow. Really hoping this means that the dry slot that seemed to be showing up on some of the models isn't going to verify, especially now that the column seems to be nice and damp. What is the shape of the snowflakes? Dendrites or other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like the stuff is just south of DC. Seems to be moving in pretty fast. Still 5pm start time for DC, PG, central AA? Yes, its snowing but of no real consequence. Impact time is probably 4-5 pm, such as Matt stated. But as I say that, a real steady snow is currently ongoing and dusting everything, so who the hell knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Started with TINY flakes, now very light snow, 20F east of Fredericksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 what is the general opinion of the ratios on 1/30/10 -- BWI and IAD were both low 20s:1 from the climo data but I get there is some skepticism about the measurements? Snow doesn't get into the ASOS buckets very efficiently, especially fluffy snow that's blowing around. Yes, consensus is the liquid equivalent was underreported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 And Boom. First flakes with instant stickage. Here we go. Lets have some fun tonight yall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RixeyvilleWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Moderate snow. Really fine flakes. Driveway covered. (NW Culpeper) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12Z GFS BUFKIT sounding for highest rates tonight for dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Overcast and 16F in Ashburn, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snow doesn't get into the ASOS buckets very efficiently, especially fluffy snow that's blowing around. Yes, consensus is the liquid equivalent was underreported. yeah that makes sense -- i was actually stuck at BWI for that event (connection through CLT was cancelled I think) -- was in DC for an interview on the day before -- too bad we don't have more non-automated measurements of liquid equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 DOT cams showing that snow is falling across a good chunk of Garrett County, MD. The AWOS out there (K2G4) is reporting ''Haze'' with a 1.25 SM visibility, but I believe it's very fine snow flakes that are fooling the sensor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snowing in Gainesville, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 snowing in Northern Neck, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Plates and needles have turned into small dendrites with some needles. Not great but at least its not being wicked up like a sponge. High was 18.5 now down to 15.3. DP up to +4 after being negative all day...and by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 first flakes falling in centreville 16f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hope the hrrr is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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