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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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So the big losers of the night are the Canadian twins and WPC's snow ratio algorithm.

GGEM is so worthless this winter. Honestly don't know enough about RGEM but never really look at it. Everyone bit on the ratios heh. We is weenies.
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you might be too far west, but ot doesnt matter right now because your region is still getting banded

I do know for the Saturday storm we will be weighing the Euro and Ukie heavily. Most of the rest of the models except for the Nam pretty much sucked. The Ukie locked in from 6 days away and never wavered.
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GGEM is so worthless this winter. Honestly don't know enough about RGEM but never really look at it. Everyone bit on the ratios heh. We is weenies.

I wonder what my ratios are, they have to be higher than 10:1. In Boston they say the Rgem has been great this winter but it was horrible down here for tonight.
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I wonder what my ratios are, they have to be higher than 10:1.

They'll prob still avg above 10:1 but not a 15:1-20:1 bonanza. You know a storm is going to be good when we spend the last bit inflating with ratios.
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They'll prob still avg above 10:1 but not a 15:1-20:1 bonanza. You know a storm is going to be good when we spend the last bit inflating with ratios.

I don't understand ratios very well but i did a lot of reading about it and it seemed we had the perfect setup to get at least 14:1.
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I don't understand ratios very well but i did a lot of reading about it and it seemed we had the perfect setup to get at least 14:1.

I'll probably end up with 4 here so my best guess for ratios would be the first inch we got was probably 10:1 and the 3 remaining inches would be close to 20:1. I'm assuming the liquid will be .25 total.

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I don't know. The heavier bands are getting up here the last hour. They seem to be staying by you and it looks like we only have a couple more hours. I might get to 4.5. Pretty solid event overall considering all the uncertainty about the northern extent.

This will definitely meet my expectations and with 4 more chances for snow over the next 10 days i am stoked. Plus it will be hanging around for a while. I am curious to see how much below zero i can drop to on Thursday night.
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Speak for yourself :P

 

Seriously though, this is quite an event. A lot of fun to follow.

Quite a ride over the last few days. One of the craziest storms to track I can remember. Guidance was all over the places and shifted every run to a totally new solution. Glad that it finally produced a solid storm, even if it isn't the .8" QPF at 20:1 ratios all some of us were hoping for.

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