Jebman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This is a nice write-up by LWX at 10:19 pm on the hole in the precip shield, and why it should fill back in: STILL NO CHANGES TO WARNINGS AND ADVYS AT THIS TIME. LTST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A HOLE HAS DVLPD IN THE PCPN SHIELD. THIS SEEMS TO BE ALIGNED WITH AN AREA OF NVA (negative vorticity advection) CAPTURED IN LTST NAM. WHILE ISENT UPGLIDE MVG OFFSHORE...THERE ARE STILL SVRL FACTORS WHICH SUPPORT PCPN DVLPMNT. FIRST OF ALL...THERE WL BE PLENTY OF LIFT DUE TO UPR JET...WHICH WUD PERMIT RAPID LIFT/PCPN DVLPMNT ONCE A MORE FVRBL SCENARIO RETURNS BENEATH. SECOND...THERES STILL A PLETHORA OF S/WV ENERGY TO SWING THRU. FINALLY...LOPRES TRACKING ACRS SERN CONUS WL BE SENDING ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE TWD THE MID ATLC. SO WHILE BANDING MAY NOT BE QUITE AS OPTIMAL AS ERLR... ITS TOO SOON TO CALL THIS THING OFF. HV TRIMMED PCPN TTLS BY ABT AN INCH DUE TO THE CURRENT LULL. SUBSTANTIVELY...THAT WONT CHG MUCH. THE HIEST TTLS WL BE IN SRN MD...LOWEST NUMBERS WL BE IN THE NWRN CORNER. whoops there it is....... whoops there it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 If you live east of 95. That's where they are targeting the "heaviest" snow. That doesn't mean moderate or steady snow won't happen west of that discussion area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yup. My lull lasted all of 5-10 minutes. Looks like good returns are filling in too. Yup. As these bands develop, the nature of the snow sure has changed. Fat, well-formed dendrites instead of the pixi-dust of the last 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Very tiny flakes. About 2 inches Temp: 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Richmond (West Henrico) 10:30 5" Still in pixie dust beast mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Way too much radar extrapolating tonight. It's getting on my nerves and that's hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Rates diminished significantly for about 20 minutes and it is now picking back up. -SN with some occasional big flakes mixed in with the pixies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Fairfax county looks like it is getting cheated the way the radar is filling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 If you live east of 95. We get it - you think the storm is over. If that's the case, why not just log off and stop obsessing over the radar? In general, the radar hallucination/dry slot hallucination/storm cancel as a whole has been unbearable this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Jesus. Im gonna blow a gasket. stop staring at your computer screen and look out your window. The western flank of the precip shield is filling in and the snow is quite heavy under it. I need to take a break from the site for a while. Il be back with a midnight ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like Mitch and I might have a decent batch incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Im hoping to puke snow for the first time tonight with this new band about to come into Balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Just throwing it out there. GFS is wetter For northern MD finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN VIRGINIA...CNTRL MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND SRN NEW JERSEY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 170333Z - 170800Z SUMMARY...INCREASING SNOW RATES...UP TO 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. DISCUSSION...COINCIDING WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...MODELS INDICATE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL INTENSIFY WITHIN A PIVOTING BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN SNOW RATES...IN THE PRESENCE OF SATURATED...SUB-FREEZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. OUTPUT FROM THE LATEST NCEP-SREF AND RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OR BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE ORDER OF .4 TO .5 INCHES...AND THE COLD NATURE OF THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTIVE OF RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS...THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD IMPACT AREAS AS FAR WEST AND NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY SNOW APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA...PERHAPS DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY BY 09Z. Excellent, saving it in my storm files. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Lol at CHO. Updated LWX snowmap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 That's where they are targeting the "heaviest" snow. That doesn't mean moderate or steady snow won't happen west of that discussion area. We get it - you think the storm is over. If that's the case, why not just log off and stop obsessing over the radar? In general, the radar hallucination/dry slot hallucination/storm cancel as a whole has been unbearable this storm. Not obsessing,just observing. You need to chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 1.6 mi SSE of Short Pump town center 1800: 0.4" 1900: 1.5" 2000: 2.4" 2100: 3.5” 2200: 4.25” 2250: 4.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Way too much radar extrapolating tonight. It's getting on my nerves and that's hard to do. Same here... its getting quite silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Really cranking here now. 2 inches and rapidly accumulating. Radar really filled in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 In general, the radar hallucination/dry slot hallucination/storm cancel as a whole has been unbearable this storm. Not sure what I'm missing here -- Why is it a hallucination? Radar shows a big hole on the north side of the city. I can attest that it is real. The visibility is excellent and no snow is falling. That's not to say it will STAY that way. But for now, it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kas80 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Just about an even 3" in northern calvert county. Rates have picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Mega band moving through BAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 You all need to step away from the radar screen and just get outside to enjoy. Been sledding with my kids and neighbors for the last hour and 30. Champagne powder out here. Heavy bands coming into HoCo too. Great night. Whatever happens...happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 In N. Arlington we have a weird type of snow that makes loud noises and kind of looks like sleet. Is anybody else experiencing this? If so, does anybody know what it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 According to the radar, I am in a dry slot. Current obs: SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 A lot of people must have hit the cheese section at the grocery store to go with all their whines in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 My pixie dust has been replaced by rimed flakes which are now knocking down my 3.25" of fluff. Can't win in the dedrite region with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Mega band moving through BAL Strange... I went to look at the mega-band... and I see the lightest precip I've seen all night here in Glen Burnie. Not really sure whats up with that. I thought I'd see rippage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Strange... I went to look at the mega-band... and I see the lightest precip I've seen all night here in Glen Burnie. Not really sure whats up with that. I thought I'd see rippage. Its more north . its coming down up here http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 In N. Arlington we have a weird type of snow that makes loud noises and kind of looks like sleet. Is anybody else experiencing this? If so, does anybody know what it is? Read my post from about 15 mins ago Grauple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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