BlizzardNole Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This is a nice write-up by LWX at 10:19 pm on the hole in the precip shield, and why it should fill back in: STILL NO CHANGES TO WARNINGS AND ADVYS AT THIS TIME. LTST RADARTRENDS SUGGEST THAT A HOLE HAS DVLPD IN THE PCPN SHIELD. THISSEEMS TO BE ALIGNED WITH AN AREA OF NVA (negative vorticity advection) CAPTURED IN LTST NAM.WHILE ISENT UPGLIDE MVG OFFSHORE...THERE ARE STILL SVRL FACTORSWHICH SUPPORT PCPN DVLPMNT. FIRST OF ALL...THERE WL BE PLENTY OFLIFT DUE TO UPR JET...WHICH WUD PERMIT RAPID LIFT/PCPN DVLPMNTONCE A MORE FVRBL SCENARIO RETURNS BENEATH. SECOND...THERESSTILL A PLETHORA OF S/WV ENERGY TO SWING THRU. FINALLY...LOPRESTRACKING ACRS SERN CONUS WL BE SENDING ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE TWD THEMID ATLC. SO WHILE BANDING MAY NOT BE QUITE AS OPTIMAL AS ERLR...ITS TOO SOON TO CALL THIS THING OFF. HV TRIMMED PCPN TTLS BY ABTAN INCH DUE TO THE CURRENT LULL. SUBSTANTIVELY...THAT WONT CHGMUCH. THE HIEST TTLS WL BE IN SRN MD...LOWEST NUMBERS WL BE IN THENWRN CORNER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 3.8 10:25pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'll happily take both. I thought your office doesn't follow OPM anymore?We don't observe delay anymore but we still follow closing. Tomorrow may feel kinda silly though there has never legitimately been a reason I couldnt get to work in my 9 years here when OPM closed except maybe dec 2009 because I wasn't on the metro line then. Tough call.. They sort of had to with snow emergency and wmata Saturday schedule. Even though it's cold sun angle and powder may make it easier to clean up. Eh.. They need a new system sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 That band in southern PA is looking pretty nice, Harrisburg getting dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I do have to admit the whole system seems to be moving faster than I thought it would....of course, that could explain the earlier start time didn't think about that when I was rejoicing over the earlier snow arrival, did I I think we all thought that the "dry" threat above us was overstated. I've never really liked these storms that has its precip field basically moving west to east even though the lp was sw of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbsisson Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 All indications are that this storm is just about over for areas north of 64 and west of rt. 29 in virginia. Not so sure the coastal is gonna get much going over this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steks Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Even 3" in Manassas after the last shot. Now in a pause (?) with temp still at 14/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 3.5 as of 10:30, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Completely shut off now in Silver Spring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Dendrites now despite weaker radar returns..crystal growth definitely improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This is a nice write-up by LWX at 10:19 pm on the hole in the precip shield, and why it should fill back in: STILL NO CHANGES TO WARNINGS AND ADVYS AT THIS TIME. LTST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A HOLE HAS DVLPD IN THE PCPN SHIELD. THIS SEEMS TO BE ALIGNED WITH AN AREA OF NVA (negative vorticity advection) CAPTURED IN LTST NAM. WHILE ISENT UPGLIDE MVG OFFSHORE...THERE ARE STILL SVRL FACTORS WHICH SUPPORT PCPN DVLPMNT. FIRST OF ALL...THERE WL BE PLENTY OF LIFT DUE TO UPR JET...WHICH WUD PERMIT RAPID LIFT/PCPN DVLPMNT ONCE A MORE FVRBL SCENARIO RETURNS BENEATH. SECOND...THERES STILL A PLETHORA OF S/WV ENERGY TO SWING THRU. FINALLY...LOPRES TRACKING ACRS SERN CONUS WL BE SENDING ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE TWD THE MID ATLC. SO WHILE BANDING MAY NOT BE QUITE AS OPTIMAL AS ERLR... ITS TOO SOON TO CALL THIS THING OFF. HV TRIMMED PCPN TTLS BY ABT AN INCH DUE TO THE CURRENT LULL. SUBSTANTIVELY...THAT WONT CHG MUCH. THE HIEST TTLS WL BE IN SRN MD...LOWEST NUMBERS WL BE IN THE NWRN CORNER. Where did you find this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Well, that filled in quick. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=LWX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 In Richmond, about 4 inches on ground. Some real heavy snow about to move in, and then actually it looks like the dry slot that I thought was going to threaten us is rapidly filling in back towards Roanoke/Lynchburg and that should be good news for NOVa/DC/MD folks as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We don't observe delay anymore but we still follow closing. Tomorrow may feel kinda silly though there has never legitimately been a reason I couldnt get to work in my 9 years here when OPM closed except maybe dec 2009 because I wasn't on the metro line then. Tough call.. They sort of had to with snow emergency and wmata Saturday schedule. Even though it's cold sun angle and powder may make it easier to clean up. Eh.. They need a new system sooner than later. Agree. We generally follow OPM but have been known to do our own thing. I genuinely expected a delay tomorrow but a closure at 9pm is pretty surprising but you are right. The snow emergency and metro schedule really helped drive the decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Those of us that don't work for gov or follow OPM? Leave it to the Feds to close for 2 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Pretty cool to see how fast the radar fills in as the lift and energy impact the local environment. Pretty dynamic and will be fun to watch overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Radar is GREAT for northern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN VIRGINIA...CNTRL MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND SRN NEW JERSEY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 170333Z - 170800Z SUMMARY...INCREASING SNOW RATES...UP TO 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. DISCUSSION...COINCIDING WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...MODELS INDICATE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL INTENSIFY WITHIN A PIVOTING BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN SNOW RATES...IN THE PRESENCE OF SATURATED...SUB-FREEZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. OUTPUT FROM THE LATEST NCEP-SREF AND RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OR BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE ORDER OF .4 TO .5 INCHES...AND THE COLD NATURE OF THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTIVE OF RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS...THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD IMPACT AREAS AS FAR WEST AND NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY SNOW APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA...PERHAPS DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY BY 09Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 New mesoscale discussion is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 All indications are that this storm is just about over for areas north of 64 and west of rt. 29 in virginia. Not so sure the coastal is gonna get much going over this way. Jesus. Im gonna blow a gasket. stop staring at your computer screen and look out your window. The western flank of the precip shield is filling in and the snow is quite heavy under it. I need to take a break from the site for a while. Il be back with a midnight ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 That band SW of DC though...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Where did you find this? It is in their updated discussion issued at 10:19pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 A grauple like snow has commenced here. Loud like sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Updated LWX snowmap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I saw the lull that is modeled. It lasted about 11 minutes. Now its snowing again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 New mesoscale discussion is nice. If you live east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Updated LWX snowmap: Seems very reasonable, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 About 2.0-2.5" in upper NW. Gemstone snow, how it sparkles in the street lights as it falls. Aesthetically, top notch. Now if quantity is its own quality, this may ... fall short. Don't like the look of that radar-echo challenged quadrilateral to the west of DC. In most contexts, "fill in" usually implies something less than ideal. Machado goes on the DL, Flaherty "fills in." But in snowstorms, "filling in" is devoutly to be wished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 They need to work on their maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 If you live east of 95. I'm inside the purple cloud, so I'm good. Either way it shows the event is not over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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