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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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I can't speak for everyone.  But a band is going to form to the west of the cities sometime after midnight....and it will probably be dendrites...The "good" stuff was ALWAYS forecast to come after 10-11pm...most of the models along the way had the best stuff closer to 12-3......

 

People seem to be (as with every storm since forums were a thing) freaking out about the dryslot thingy. The number of posts about the dryslot has been steadily increasing ;) - It's really nice out and I like that the bands keep cruising through. 

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People seem to be (as with every storm since forums were a thing) freaking out about the dryslot thingy. The number of posts about the dryslot has been steadily increasing ;) - It's really nice out and I like that the bands keep cruising through. 

 

I'm just enjoying what comes....I've addressed the dry slot like 10 times as have others.....I'm going to enjoy this band and then probably take a break, because all the people melting down is going to be annoying

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Surprising band of precip forming in S Central PA wasn't depicted on any of the models.

That's the northern band where the best lift/moisture is up around the -15C isotherm. What we have learned time and time again: if you're gonna have a relatively dry sub-cloud layer, it'd be best if the uvvs and saturation are within the -12 to -18C layer, which maximizes dendritic growth.

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