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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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At 9PM my total so far is 2.5".  Light pixies continue to fall.  It seems to about a 10-1 snow to liquid ratio with these pixies, which might be the story with this storm unless we get some dendrites.  Perhaps a met can discuss what is happening in the snow growth region to cause the 10-1 ratios despite the  seemingly perfect temps at the snow growth region on soundings. 

 

On another note, I took an hour long Jebwalk down the streets and through the woods, and the quiet sound of pixie flakes tickling the branches and crunching of snow beneath my boots was the only sound that could be heard.  This is an absolutely fantastic storm, and the sparkle of these flakes through the woods was fantastic.  I also followed Jebs lead and shoveled out both of my neighbors.  Hey, what can I say, I live for this stuff!!  Sure beats the hell out of the typical 33 degree cartopper!!!

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7 hours of snow, and only 2.6" here. This will be a bust unless the ratios change. No model is giving us 0.6-1.0 liquid, and with the ratios averaging 10:1, that's what we'd need to verify the NWS LWX forecast. I think 4-5" is doable, and most would be satisfied with that, but it is still frustrating that we can't nail a forecast even once the event has started.

Main event is later tonight.....

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First real flakes of the storm now and picking up. Hopefully from here on out the flour shower is over. Gonna take a walk and bring a ruler.

Still really fine snow here. Hopefully I get some good flakes down this way soon. I probably have like 1.5 inches right now. Haven't measured just eyeballing. 

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Accumulations so far:

 

000NOUS41 KLWX 170101PNSLWXDCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-171301-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC801 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 6HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATIONIS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARNSPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLEON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BALTIMORE********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                     SNOWFALL           OF                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENTDISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...   1 NW NATIONAL ZOO      1.0   714 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   1 NE AMERICAN UNIVER   0.9   648 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA   1 NNE THE WHITE HOUS   0.8   700 PM  2/16  PUBLICMARYLAND...ALLEGANY COUNTY...   FROSTBURG              1.0   400 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   FROSTBURG                T   200 PM  2/16  PUBLIC...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...   SEVERNA PARK           0.8   702 PM  2/16  PUBLIC   BWI AIRPORT            0.6   700 PM  2/16  AIRPORT...BALTIMORE COUNTY...   CATONSVILLE            1.6   654 PM  2/16  PUBLIC...CALVERT COUNTY...   2 NE DOWELL            1.0   715 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   LUSBY                  1.0   715 PM  2/16  PUBLIC   PRINCE FREDERICK       0.2   338 PM  2/16  PUBLIC...CARROLL COUNTY...   3 WSW LINEBORO         0.1   754 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER...CHARLES COUNTY...   LA PLATA               1.8   748 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   1 SW DENTSVILLE        1.0   630 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   LA PLATA               0.1   253 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...   1 SW OXON HILL         0.8   700 PM  2/16  CO-OP OBSERVER...ST. MARYS COUNTY...   2 W CALLAWAY           1.0   603 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   LEONARDTOWN              T   216 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA   2 NE BUSHWOOD            T   314 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER...WASHINGTON COUNTY...   1 NE MAUGANSVILLE      0.5   730 PM  2/16  AIRPORTVIRGINIA...ALBEMARLE COUNTY...   2 WSW MONTICELLO       3.0   714 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   2 SSW NEWCOMB HALL     3.0   700 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   2 E FREE UNION         2.3   658 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   HOLLYMEAD              2.0   729 PM  2/16  PUBLIC   2 WSW WESTMORELAND     1.0   600 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER...ARLINGTON COUNTY...   REAGAN NATIONAL AIRP   0.8   700 PM  2/16  AIRPORT   1 NNE BAILEYS CROSSR   0.7   639 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER...AUGUSTA COUNTY...   MIDDLEBROOK            3.0   500 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA   CHURCHVILLE            2.3   500 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA   1 SSW WEYERS CAVE      2.0   619 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   STUARTS DRAFT          1.5   554 PM  2/16  AMATEUR RADIO...CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...   1 W ALEXANDRIA         1.2   733 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   ALEXANDRIA             1.0   658 PM  2/16  PUBLIC...CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...   1 SSE CHARLOTTESVILL   1.5   720 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA   1 SSE CHARLOTTESVILL   0.5   538 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER...CITY OF FAIRFAX...   FAIRFAX                1.1   559 PM  2/16  PUBLIC...CITY OF HARRISONBURG...   HARRISONBURG           1.8   530 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA...CITY OF WAYNESBORO...   WAYNESBORO             1.3   500 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA   2 WSW WAYNESBORO       1.0   230 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER...CLARKE COUNTY...   1 NNW BERRYVILLE       1.1   610 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER...CULPEPER COUNTY...   1 WNW CULPEPER         2.5   726 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   1 W CULPEPER           1.0   359 PM  2/16  PUBLIC...FAIRFAX COUNTY...   1 E ANNANDALE          2.0   750 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   CENTREVILLE            1.5   730 PM  2/16  PUBLIC   3 SE CHANTILLY         1.0   554 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   1 NNE HERNDON          1.0   645 PM  2/16  NWS EMPLOYEE   SPRINGFIELD            1.0   710 PM  2/16  PUBLIC   LINCOLNIA              0.8   637 PM  2/16  PUBLIC   VIENNA                   T   237 PM  2/16  CO-OP OBSERVER...FAUQUIER COUNTY...   1 WSW NEW BALTIMORE    2.0   520 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   OPAL                   1.5   652 PM  2/16  NWS EMPLOYEE...FREDERICK COUNTY...   3 S STEPHENSON           T   315 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER...HIGHLAND COUNTY...   1 WSW MUSTOE           3.9   636 PM  2/16  CO-OP OBSERVER...KING GEORGE COUNTY...   KING GEORGE            0.8   600 PM  2/16  FIRE DEPT/RESCUE...LOUDOUN COUNTY...   1 ESE HUGHESVILLE      1.0   730 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   DULLES INTERNATIONAL   0.9   653 PM  2/16  AIRPORT...NELSON COUNTY...   1 SSW ELMA             3.0   732 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER...ORANGE COUNTY...   1 NNW BARBOURSVILLE    1.4   630 PM  2/16  COCORAHS...PAGE COUNTY...   1 SW IDA               2.0   600 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   1 ESE HONEYVILLE       1.8   645 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   STANLEY                1.0   500 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA...PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY...   5 S MANASSAS           2.5   630 PM  2/16  PUBLIC   2 SW WOOLSEY           2.1   724 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   2 SW WOOLSEY           1.2   449 PM  2/16  PUBLIC   3 NNW WOOLSEY          0.9   427 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   3 NE NOKESVILLE        0.5   331 PM  2/16  PUBLIC   GAINESVILLE            0.3   322 PM  2/16  PUBLIC...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...   2 S LACEY SPRING       2.5   600 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   BRIDGEWATER            2.0   500 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA   BERGTON                1.3   500 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA   TIMBERVILLE            1.3   500 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA...SHENANDOAH COUNTY...   WOODSTOCK              3.5   538 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   2 ENE JEROME           2.5   607 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER...SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY...   1 S DUNAVANT           1.5   600 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER   3 NE SPOTSYLVANIA        T   217 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER...STAFFORD COUNTY...   1 WSW SEALSTON         1.3   700 PM  2/16  COCORAHS   1 S STORCK             1.3   630 PM  2/16  NWS EMPLOYEE...WARREN COUNTY...   FRONT ROYAL            2.0   516 PM  2/16  PUBLIC   1 N KARO               0.8   320 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTERWEST VIRGINIA...GRANT COUNTY...   2 ESE KLINE GAP        2.0   545 PM  2/16  TRAINED SPOTTER...HARDY COUNTY...   OLD FIELDS             1.5   500 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA...PENDLETON COUNTY...   FRANKLIN               3.0   500 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA   SUGAR GROVE            2.3   500 PM  2/16  BROADCAST MEDIA$$ADS

000NWUS51 KAKQ 170220LSRAKQPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA920 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..0700 PM     SNOW             1 NNE MUCK CROSS        36.73N  78.36W02/16/2015  M1.8 INCH        MECKLENBURG        VA   TRAINED SPOTTER0901 PM     SNOW             BEL-AIRE                36.92N  76.23W02/16/2015  M2.1 INCH        CITY OF NORFOLK    VA   TRAINED SPOTTER0904 PM     SNOW             OAKLETTE                36.83N  76.24W02/16/2015  M2.0 INCH        CITY OF CHESAPEAKE VA   TRAINED SPOTTER&&EVENT NUMBER AKQ1500148EVENT NUMBER AKQ1500149EVENT NUMBER AKQ1500150$$AJZ

000NWUS51 KRNK 170224LSRRNKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA924 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..0910 PM     SNOW             2 SW DRAKES BRANCH      36.97N  78.63W02/16/2015  M4.0 INCH        CHARLOTTE          VA   TRAINED SPOTTER&&CORRECTED EVENT TIMEEVENT NUMBER RNK1500484$$16

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7 hours of snow, and only 2.6" here. This will be a bust unless the ratios change. No model is giving us 0.6-1.0 liquid, and with the ratios averaging 10:1, that's what we'd need to verify the NWS LWX forecast. I think 4-5" is doable, and most would be satisfied with that, but it is still frustrating that we can't nail a forecast even once the event has started.

 

please stop.  we almost always end up in the heavier banding.  we're on track for 4-6 easy, upside 8-10, maybe more.

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