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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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For all my bellyaching,  I've got more than 2" an my walk.   Snowing pretty good but little flakes which may be fooling the radar bit. 

 

DCA has 0.18" and IAD 0.20" so far through 9pm...I think our fears of RGEM/GGEM have been allayed.  I also think you and I are in a good spot to capitalize in the 12 am to 3-4am hours...I just wonder about ratios....

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To be fair though, it is still kind of early. I believe the better ratios weren't expected until late tonight. I just want to pile up as much as I can...and get the fed scared enough to close...

 

Plows are having no problems keeping up with this storm at this point, expect liberal leave at best for feds at this point tomorrow morning.

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9PM. 2.8 inches. 12 degrees.

 

Just took my son sledding for about an hour and a half. As others have said the snow has an awesome squeak when walked on. Not the best sledding snow though. Its like trying to sled on flour. The snow has been consistent tonight. But never heavy. A few moderate bursts at times. It's cold but absolutely no wind. Get out of the house and get into this stuff. A really great winter evening!

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DCA has 0.18" and IAD 0.20" so far through 9pm...I think our fears of RGEM/GGEM have been allayed.  I also think you and I are in a good spot to capitalize in the 12 am to 3-4am hours...I just wonder about ratios....

Discounting the RGEM, everything seems to be on schedule. Radar returns, Rapid refresh models, earlier NAM and GFS, everything. No changes in the forecast so far. Looking forward to my day off in the snow,

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9PM. 2.8 inches. 12 degrees.

 

Just took my son sledding for about an hour and a half. As others have said the snow has an awesome squeak when walked on. Not the best sledding snow though. Its like trying to sled on flour. The snow has been consistent tonight. But never heavy. A few moderate bursts at times. It's cold but absolutely no wind. Get out of the house and get into this stuff. A really great winter evening!

That's a nice total so far. Going to head out for awhile myself. I like when it's calm like this and so cold.

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7 hours of snow, and only 2.6" here. This will be a bust unless the ratios change. No model is giving us 0.6-1.0 liquid, and with the ratios averaging 10:1, that's what we'd need to verify the NWS LWX forecast. I think 4-5" is doable, and most would be satisfied with that, but it is still frustrating that we can't nail a forecast even once the event has started.

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