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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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13/12 with a steady very high intensity light snow. It continues to pile up steadily, I am getting close to 3 inches, about 2.9 right now. Just broomed off that driveway again. It's a job tryin to keep up with it lol. Edit: Piles more like 15-18 inches tall. This stuff does not pile up like wet snow, it needs a relatively wide base to pile it up

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There's a remarkable difference in reporting from one side of DC (from Woodbridge up to Arlington) to the other side (Rockville, SS, Wheaton) both in terms of described rates and totals. Everyone on the north side seems stuck around an inch or so with very fine, sandy snow. IF there is a potential for disappointment in the morning it could come from the ratios. Lots of wishcasting for 15:1 and up earlier today but we're nowhere near that so far. A solid .40 QPF that we were hoping to get 6" from could end up being 3.5" at this rate. But the night is still young of course... I'm thinking it's time for a walk to enjoy the snow and stop staring the radar.

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1.1" now

You sure on that? I'm a few miles from you in Millersville and still looks like .75 or so, doesn't look like a full inch yet. Just those dry pixie flakes.  Wonder if the ratios will end up lower than we thought. Granted not into the heart of the storm yet so hopefully those bands to the west and southwest that have better rates will hit us too.  I'm worried though with JB2 thinking AA county could be the jackpot. His forecasts never work out lol

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0z RAP has a nasty dry slot shooting west to east after 10pm, that eventually fills in, but not sure how far west it will do so....hopefully it is underdoing the western extent once the coastal takes full control

It has been well modeled and consistent on those two short range models...it's gonna happen but as you say how long and where does it fill back in. HRR has it ending completely here in Leesburg just after midnight...hope it's wrong but if not we won't make 3"

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