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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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The latest few RAP runs have been showing a dry slot over Western VA and nearing DC, but more toward 11-12 or so....they aren't exactly confidence inspiring runs...21z run had 0.30" for DCA from 8pm until the end, but 22z and 23z don't look as good

They are worst-case scenarios.  The low doesn't throw the precip back north and west enough.  Hope the RR/HRRR combo are just being to sharp on the NW side.

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This is how the 18z GFS and NAM have this playing out for DCA...Obviously this is just a general guide...things are going to unfold how they unfold.

 

Through 7pm - NAM: 0.05", GFS: 0.09", Actual: 0.08" (DCA is often too low)

7pm - 10pm - NAM: 0.13", GFS: 0.10"

10pm - 1am- NAM: 0.15", GFS: 0.11"

1am - 4am - NAM: 0.14", GFS: 0.14"

4am - 7am - NAM: 0.07", GFS: 0.04"

I'm a little discouraged seeing bands setting up north and south of me.  Seems like this year, I can't catch a break no matter how a storm  evolves.  Maybe the green will eventaully fill in over me but each time it gets close it fizzles. 

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I'm a little discouraged seeing bands setting up north and south of me. Seems like this year, I can't catch a break no matter how a storm evolves. Maybe the green will eventaully fill in over me but each time it gets close it fizzles.

Wes, I think you are going to do quite well once things take on a more sw-ne orientation. Better than my yard I'm pretty sure.

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