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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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All surfaces hugging every flake that comes down. This is a low stress storm. No mixing issues, expectations have never been much higher than 6-8" so if I end up with 4-6 that's not a heartbreak. And the chances of going below that seem to be quite small compared to the chances of exceeding eight. Part of it as well is the sheer pleasure I took from Saturday's mini-blizzard, which I'll remember fondly out of all proportion to the actual accumulation. I'm still reliving the rush from that. Another part of it is we're in the middle of what is truly a historic stretch of cold/wintery weather for mid February.

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The should do quite well given the very cold temps and the ability to saturate and precipitate quickly. 6-12 is my call for the DC-BWI corridor. Enjoy and keep the obs coming!

Weathafella -- Long time no see!  Man you guys are having one epic winter up there.  Next door neighbor's daughter, who loves snow, is at Boston U.  She must be having a blast.

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Gotta go until about 9:30 so I will leave you with this.

Radar looks stunning.

Origin of this storm, as I have said for over 5 days, is where DC gets it's best from.

Look for the NWS to up the amounts as the night progresses.

Nothing will be open tomorrow.

More later.

 

it looks stunning from dc to charlottesville, but there's still a pretty good fight going on between the dry air and the overrunning.  mother nature taught me a while ago not to guarantee anything.  so far this storm is off to a nice start, but would like to see those yellows find a way through dc (tbd).  the storm is also high tailing it, so that could cut down on some of the higher totals, maybe.  mets, feel free to correct me.  

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Oh, good stuff. This next band entering from Fauquier/Prince William and Charles Counties is the real deal. Just got into it and it is a fog of snow. Certainly moderate. Flakes size better. 13.8.

 

OT:Ha!! Topper on USA9 just said to expect thunder snow on Wednesday. I have not looked to much into it but just reporting what he said.

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