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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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Not really my thing to explain, or justify, it to you as you should already know this. Moisture laden air that is moist enough to try and mix running into below zero dewpoints will provide for a dynamic situation.

Your meteorology must be taught at the bottom of the ocean. It makes no sense that was my point!

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Please excuse my ignorance, but... in a nutshell - why is it that we aren't dealing with virga on this one (not that I'm complaining)?  We have had storms where RH was far higher and we had virga for hours... 

 

Yes. I am interested in this as well. You would think with -15 dew points it would take a while to saturate? I was snowing within 10 minutes of radar returns being over me.

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Please excuse my ignorance, but... in a nutshell - why is it that we aren't dealing with virga on this one (not that I'm complaining)?  We have had storms where RH was far higher and we had virga for hours... 

 

My only guess would be that hp is weak and retreating so while the airmass is really cold/dry still, the column can be overcome easier than having a 1030 pushing into central ny. 

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Please excuse my ignorance, but... in a nutshell - why is it that we aren't dealing with virga on this one (not that I'm complaining)? We have had storms where RH was far higher and we had virga for hours...

That's a good question. It really is. Arctic air can be tricky. It's super cold so it holds less to become saturated. Warm air can hold more moisture before saturation. Lift could be increasing at the right levels to get the column going top down as well.

Chris...anything from a micro physics standpoint?

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My only guess would be that hp is weak and retreating so while the airmass is really cold/dry still, the column can be overcome easier than having a 1030 pushing into central ny.

Very good point Bob Chill. Chris87 had a similar point earlier. The high is weak and retreating. Stronger highs will persist and keep an upstream dry northerly flow into the mid and lower layers of the column.

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i'm really not sure what's causing the drying we've seen in the HRRR runs towards this evening -- doesn't really show up much in any of the regional/global models -- it's not like we have a super strong high pressure feeding dry air into the region (at least not to my knowledge). 

 

It looks to me like the low takes over on the HRRR.  The northern shield dries up and the low ramps up.  Kind of like a transfer that we are used to.  NAM still doesn't buy it.

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