dailylurker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Tomorrow is going to be a beautiful day. Those high clouds rolling in, lowering and getting darker, calm, cold, snow already on the ground, with a (how ever much) snowstorm rolling up from the SW. Temps in the teens. I'll take that all day everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm already looking forward to arctic air and light snow on wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm already looking forward to arctic air and light snow on wednesday. Wouldn't it be funny if Northern MD got more from that then tomorrow night . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm already looking forward to arctic air and light snow on wednesday. I want to see if we can make it below zero Wed or Thurs night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm 5F right now. Sub zero this week almost seems easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6/-8 now with 54% rh. Expected it to be drier than it is. That should help saturate the column once it kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I know anyone south of Baltimore about to cash in with a decent snow could care less but I am definitely pissed at the missed opportunity this week is. Looking at the h5 loop it's obvious the vort diving in behind this storm was the one that could have gone full ape and bombed a storm up the coast. The flow is too progressive behind the sat storm for this first wave to really amplify much. But it takes the baroclinic zone off the playing field leaving nothing for the vort that's really digging and poised to have the trough go negative tues night nothing to phase with. It was a total imby thing but I was looking at what could give my area a big one. Always felt the flow wouldn't allow the 8"+ totals to get north of dc with the first wave. I know had this lead wave been weak and left the stj energy behind that next vort would have bombed a low up the coast. I still hope I am wrong but nervous I was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikes923 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thinks its funny TWC has my forecast at 20% snow today, mostly cloudy. 12 hours before the storm haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I know anyone south of Baltimore about to cash in with a decent snow could care less but I am definitely pissed at the missed opportunity this week is. Looking at the h5 loop it's obvious the vort diving in behind this storm was the one that could have gone full ape and bombed a storm up the coast. The flow is too progressive behind the sat storm for this first wave to really amplify much. But it takes the baroclinic zone off the playing field leaving nothing for the vort that's really digging and poised to have the trough go negative tues night nothing to phase with. It was a total imby thing but I was looking at what could give my area a big one. Always felt the flow wouldn't allow the 8"+ totals to get north of dc with the first wave. I know had this lead wave been weak and left the stj energy behind that next vort would have bombed a low up the coast. I still hope I am wrong but nervous I was right. that was what jb was thinking would happen. I believe eventually the models would of come back to that solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1/3 reassuring 1/3 complaining 1/3 back patting Seems like a typical snow thread to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'd ask Jebman to venture The Hill Of Doom in south Arlington VA and shovel me out, but he may be busy. Time to do tomorrow's shopping today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So why are we all tossing the GFS again? Is it because it's not among the wettest models? I just want to know, because I'm lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 To me this storm is less about totals and who jackpots and more about snow falling in these frigid temps...pretty neat. When the storm is done nobody will really be able to tell the difference between 3-4" vs 6" I mean sure a little but really...it's not like some get a foot and others get 2"...region wide 3" + coming try to enjoy after this stinky winter???although I know a few of you won't and will be certain to let us know Have fun and take pics!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm still amazed at people who still can't find their location on a map and then question the amount being forecasted on said map...put a range on there and it's automatically the the top end they see...eh...I'm a little cranky this morning....lots of banter in the storm thread...storm mode mods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So why are we all tossing the GFS again? Is it because it's not among the wettest models? I just want to know, because I'm lost. I'm not tossing it. I'd take the GFS solution and run with it..~0.5" liquid here. I'd love to toss the RGEM, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM won't make Ji happy....2" at his house...my final call for Ji 3.9" or in his words....a crushing blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Two things to be "concerned" about wrt getting the higher end of totals to verify- this storm is about a 12 hour event and could be in and out in 9 or 10, and the axis of heaviest snow... does it end up more towards southern MD and down to Richmond. 5-7 inches seems like a pretty good bet DC to Annapolis to Dover, but it remains to be seen if 8-10" amounts occur and where. Either way looks like a nice area wide event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So why are we all tossing the GFS again? Is it because it's not among the wettest models? I just want to know, because I'm lost. It's drop off of precip just west of dc would worry me if I were making a forecast. Then again, maybe others wouldn't worry about it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'd ask Jebman to venture The Hill Of Doom in south Arlington VA and shovel me out, but he may be busy. Time to do tomorrow's shopping today. This is Jeb, reporting to you LIVE and on-site in Brookline, Massachusetts where I am digging weathafella out of over 44 inches of powdery snow. The drifts are ridiculous up here! I can't believe how much snow I have left to dig! Some of these drifts are over fourteen feet high, towering over my head! Yep, sure I'm busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ellinwood nice map. And it's good to see I'm not in the damn grey coating to 1" contour for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think even NW dc is in danger of 3-5" I hope Ian is ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The cutoff on the rgem confirms the generalized anxiety occurring in those I who pay a bge bill. This has been a fear of mine all along. 6 hours of virga followed by 2 inches and an entire night of sleep lost will result in meltdowns and infighting.. Especially if dca gets 8 plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Stop. Just stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Stop. Just stop. A win for me would be to wake up tomorrow morning with a thread titled Baltimore area long mid-long range discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You all missed a great sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You all missed a great sunrise. Speakin' of sunrises........ Red Sky in Morning, Sailors (and snow enthusiasts) Take WARNING!!!!!!!! WOOT!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You all missed a great sunrise. I saw it! Was beautiful driving in. Can anyone give me a short version over overnight events? I've got eight pages is the disc thread to catch up on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Today is goi b g to be the most unproductive day at work ever for me. On Saturday I passed the life health and annuity exam for Virginia so I can quit my hell hole of a corporate job sometime soon. With that on the back of my mind I will just spend the entire day watching the models to make sure I am not gonna get fringed. Massive radar hallucinations will completely destroy any chance for me to get any work done. Then flakes will hopefully start by 3 and my boss being the crazy b**ch that she is will call some kind of stupid meeting that lasts until 530 and I will miss the first 2 hours of the storm. Just another day in a snow weenies life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Katie, I think we are a solid 3-5. Small chance of a hair more. Models mostly held, only one model was disquieting and that was the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Katie, I think we are a solid 3-5. Small chance of a hair more. Models mostly held, only one model was disquieting and that was the Canadian. Thanks, I checked the GFS at home briefly before getting the kiddo up. I'm expecting 3" at the most. You should do better than me (for a change ) Either way -- I'm planning on a "snow day" at home and taking the kid out to play. Haven't gotten a chance all year to go out and play in what little snow we have gotten. So I'm looking forward to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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