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Feb 16-17th Storm Banter Thread


Bob Chill

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All indications are that the snow is over. Go to bed guys. ALL indications are that the snow is over! Nothing to see here. 

l.o.l. @ the obs thread - it's a combo of not reading that your question has already been answered and not enjoying what is a really nice scene out there. 

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REA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1019 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WINTRY STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE

EAST COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MOVING OUT TO SEA TUESDAY

MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH

COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

STILL NO CHANGES TO WARNINGS AND ADVYS AT THIS TIME. LTST RADAR

TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A HOLE HAS DVLPD IN THE PCPN SHIELD. THIS

SEEMS TO BE ALIGNED WITH AN AREA OF NVA CAPTURED IN LTST NAM.

WHILE ISENT UPGLIDE MVG OFFSHORE...THERE ARE STILL SVRL FACTORS

WHICH SUPPORT PCPN DVLPMNT. FIRST OF ALL...THERE WL BE PLENTY OF

LIFT DUE TO UPR JET...WHICH WUD PERMIT RAPID LIFT/PCPN DVLPMNT

ONCE A MORE FVRBL SCENARIO RETURNS BENEATH. SECOND...THERES

STILL A PLETHORA OF S/WV ENERGY TO SWING THRU. FINALLY...LOPRES

TRACKING ACRS SERN CONUS WL BE SENDING ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE TWD THE

MID ATLC. SO WHILE BANDING MAY NOT BE QUITE AS OPTIMAL AS ERLR...

ITS TOO SOON TO CALL THIS THING OFF. HV TRIMMED PCPN TTLS BY ABT

AN INCH DUE TO THE CURRENT LULL. SUBSTANTIVELY...THAT WONT CHG

MUCH. THE HIEST TTLS WL BE IN SRN MD...LOWEST NUMBERS WL BE IN THE

NWRN CORNER.

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REA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1019 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WINTRY STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE

EAST COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MOVING OUT TO SEA TUESDAY

MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH

COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

STILL NO CHANGES TO WARNINGS AND ADVYS AT THIS TIME. LTST RADAR

TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A HOLE HAS DVLPD IN THE PCPN SHIELD. THIS

SEEMS TO BE ALIGNED WITH AN AREA OF NVA CAPTURED IN LTST NAM.

WHILE ISENT UPGLIDE MVG OFFSHORE...THERE ARE STILL SVRL FACTORS

WHICH SUPPORT PCPN DVLPMNT. FIRST OF ALL...THERE WL BE PLENTY OF

LIFT DUE TO UPR JET...WHICH WUD PERMIT RAPID LIFT/PCPN DVLPMNT

ONCE A MORE FVRBL SCENARIO RETURNS BENEATH. SECOND...THERES

STILL A PLETHORA OF S/WV ENERGY TO SWING THRU. FINALLY...LOPRES

TRACKING ACRS SERN CONUS WL BE SENDING ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE TWD THE

MID ATLC. SO WHILE BANDING MAY NOT BE QUITE AS OPTIMAL AS ERLR...

ITS TOO SOON TO CALL THIS THING OFF. HV TRIMMED PCPN TTLS BY ABT

AN INCH DUE TO THE CURRENT LULL. SUBSTANTIVELY...THAT WONT CHG

MUCH. THE HIEST TTLS WL BE IN SRN MD...LOWEST NUMBERS WL BE IN THE

NWRN CORNER.

Ok, this answers my question. I wanted to tell everyone to relax, but what do I know? There are grown Mets freaking out in the observation thread.
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People are pissing Bob off. Wow. It's time for some folks to just go outside and enjoy the cold powder. Enjoy it!

I agree and I have been. Beggars can't be choosers- however it would have been nice for a little daytime snow. I usually don't care how much we get, I like to see it fall from my windows during the day. But like I said, oh well! At least we're getting some :)

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When you have an MD and other mets telling you the best might be yet to come that should be enough. It's like people haven't seen a snowstorm before. Precip doesn't fall in a uniform fashion. Echos blossom and fade, move all kinds of speeds and directions. The panic is loltastic.

What do doctors know about weather?

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Not sure what I'm missing here -- Why is it a hallucination? Radar shows a big hole on the north side of the city. I can attest that it is real. The visibility is excellent and no snow is falling.

 

That's not to say it will STAY that way. But for now, it is what it is. 

 

Figured I'd respond here as to not clog up the obs thread.  The dry slot itself isn't a hallucination, you're right.  The dry slot was expected as the coastal takes over, but even after explaining that in the obs thread all night, there were still posts implying the storm was all but over.  It was the constant fretting about the dry slot and the extrapolation of what the radar will look like in 5 minutes that was getting annoying (not directed at you).

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Figured I'd respond here as to not clog up the obs thread. The dry slot itself isn't a hallucination, you're right. The dry slot was expected as the coastal takes over, but even after explaining that in the obs thread all night, there were still posts implying the storm was all but over. It was the constant fretting about the dry slot and the extrapolation of what the radar will look like in 5 minutes that was getting annoying (not directed at you).

Got it... Thanks.

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How about some beer obs? So far I have had...

Lagunitas Brown Shugga

Goose Island Matilda

I have had

Evil twin Molotov lite

Bells hopslam

Surly abrasive

Lagunitas night time

And I'm about to crack a Sierra Nevada hop hunter. I am going to hold on to the abyss for now as the snow has yet been good enough for top shelf.

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HALFASS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NOTIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDATLANTIC
ALL NIGHT MONDAY EST ALL MORNING TUE 2015 IIRCILOLATTHEIDEAOFSNOW4U

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM THAT WAS MODELED AS A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR THE MID ATLANTIC IS INCREASINGLY TURNING OUT TO BE NO SUCH GODDAMN THING. RADAR INTERPOLATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE WIDESPREAD 2-18" ACCUMULATIONS PROGGED FOR LATITUDES BETWEEN 40 S AND THE RIC SNOWHOLE SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED AND THOSE WHO SUGGESTED SUCH IMPACTS SHOULD BE DRAWN AND QUARTERED THEN SHOT AT DAWN. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE MITIGATION, WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE ZONES.

 

IN THE DALIES.... ER, HOURLIES ... ER, MINUETES ... A BIG FRIGGIN' HOLE IN RADAR RETURNS CENTERED OVER WC/SC/NC/NW/C/EC/SEC/SWC VA AND IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (WHEREVER THEY ARE, SOME SAY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS, SOME SAY AROUND THAT POWER PLANT IN MOUNT STORM) ... BUT NOT, AS WE STRESS, LIMITED TO THAT AREA ... MEANS THAT, IN THE MEANS, WE MEAN ... THAT ANTICIPATED FRONTOGENESIS IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST ... HELL, WE MIGHT AS WELL SAY ... IS NOT HAPPENING TO ANYTHING LIKE THE EXTENT ANTICIPATED OR AS MODELED BY THE HRRR/RGEM/ZZTOP/KBILLYSUPERSOUNDSOFTHE70S SHORT RANGE MODELS. !IN FACT, SUCH FRONTOGENESIS MAY HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE SYNOPTIC PRESENTATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SUITE OF 18Z MODELS: EURO (IT WAS SIX HOURS LATE BECAUSE OF PATHOGENSIS IN THE DATA INGESTED FROM CRIMEA RAOBS THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN COMPROMISED BY LOCALIZED UNREST), RGEM (NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH THE UPGRADED RGIII, AN EXPERIMENTAL RUN OF WHICH DROPPED WIDESPREAD 20-30" ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LWX REGION BUT WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO A LACK OF DATA PROCESSING ROBUSTNESS), AND THE HRRR, WHICH HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT LACKS TWO "O'S" IN THE ACRONYM AND THUS ALWAYS TENDS TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE WINTERTIME SOLUTIONS.

 

THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO DISCONTINUE WSWs FOR PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE AREA (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARR'S RIDGE, WHERE LATEST GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS VERIFY 4-6"/HR ACCUMULATIONS) AND HAVE COORDINATED WITH BOX, GYX, AND ALY TO HOIST BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR THE NEXT FORTNIGHT, IN KEEPING WITH SEASONAL TRENDS.

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HALFASS FORECAST DISCUSSION

NOTIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDATLANTIC

ALL NIGHT MONDAY EST ALL MORNING TUE 2015 IIRCILOLATTHEIDEAOFSNOW4U

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM THAT WAS MODELED AS A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR THE MID ATLANTIC IS INCREASINGLY TURNING OUT TO BE NO SUCH GODDAMN THING. RADAR INTERPOLATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE WIDESPREAD 2-18" ACCUMULATIONS PROGGED FOR LATITUDES BETWEEN 40 S AND THE RIC SNOWHOLE SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED AND THOSE WHO SUGGESTED SUCH IMPACTS SHOULD BE DRAWN AND QUARTERED THEN SHOT AT DAWN. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE MITIGATION, WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE ZONES.

 

IN THE DALIES.... ER, HOURLIES ... ER, MINUETES ... A BIG FRIGGIN' HOLE IN RADAR RETURNS CENTERED OVER WC/SC/NC/NW/C/EC/SEC/SWC VA AND IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (WHEREVER THEY ARE, SOME SAY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS, SOME SAY AROUND THAT POWER PLANT IN MOUNT STORM) ... BUT NOT, AS WE STRESS, LIMITED TO THAT AREA ... MEANS THAT, IN THE MEANS, WE MEAN ... THAT ANTICIPATED FRONTOGENESIS IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST ... HELL, WE MIGHT AS WELL SAY ... IS NOT HAPPENING TO ANYTHING LIKE THE EXTENT ANTICIPATED OR AS MODELED BY THE HRRR/RGEM/ZZTOP/KBILLYSUPERSOUNDSOFTHE70S SHORT RANGE MODELS. !IN FACT, SUCH FRONTOGENESIS MAY HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE SYNOPTIC PRESENTATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SUITE OF 18Z MODELS: EURO (IT WAS SIX HOURS LATE BECAUSE OF PATHOGENSIS IN THE DATA INGESTED FROM CRIMEA RAOBS THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN COMPROMISED BY LOCALIZED UNREST), RGEM (NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH THE UPGRADED RGIII, AN EXPERIMENTAL RUN OF WHICH DROPPED WIDESPREAD 20-30" ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LWX REGION BUT WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO A LACK OF DATA PROCESSING ROBUSTNESS), AND THE HRRR, WHICH HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT LACKS TWO "O'S" IN THE ACRONYM AND THUS ALWAYS TENDS TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE WINTERTIME SOLUTIONS.

 

THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO DISCONTINUE WSWs FOR PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE AREA (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARR'S RIDGE, WHERE LATEST GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS VERIFY 4-6"/HR ACCUMULATIONS) AND HAVE COORDINATED WITH BOX, GYX, AND ALY TO HOIST BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR THE NEXT FORTNIGHT, IN KEEPING WITH SEASONAL TRENDS.

 

very nicely done!

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HALFASS FORECAST DISCUSSION

NOTIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDATLANTIC

ALL NIGHT MONDAY EST ALL MORNING TUE 2015 IIRCILOLATTHEIDEAOFSNOW4U

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM THAT WAS MODELED AS A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR THE MID ATLANTIC IS INCREASINGLY TURNING OUT TO BE NO SUCH GODDAMN THING. RADAR INTERPOLATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE WIDESPREAD 2-18" ACCUMULATIONS PROGGED FOR LATITUDES BETWEEN 40 S AND THE RIC SNOWHOLE SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED AND THOSE WHO SUGGESTED SUCH IMPACTS SHOULD BE DRAWN AND QUARTERED THEN SHOT AT DAWN. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE MITIGATION, WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE ZONES.

 

IN THE DALIES.... ER, HOURLIES ... ER, MINUETES ... A BIG FRIGGIN' HOLE IN RADAR RETURNS CENTERED OVER WC/SC/NC/NW/C/EC/SEC/SWC VA AND IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (WHEREVER THEY ARE, SOME SAY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS, SOME SAY AROUND THAT POWER PLANT IN MOUNT STORM) ... BUT NOT, AS WE STRESS, LIMITED TO THAT AREA ... MEANS THAT, IN THE MEANS, WE MEAN ... THAT ANTICIPATED FRONTOGENESIS IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST ... HELL, WE MIGHT AS WELL SAY ... IS NOT HAPPENING TO ANYTHING LIKE THE EXTENT ANTICIPATED OR AS MODELED BY THE HRRR/RGEM/ZZTOP/KBILLYSUPERSOUNDSOFTHE70S SHORT RANGE MODELS. !IN FACT, SUCH FRONTOGENESIS MAY HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE SYNOPTIC PRESENTATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SUITE OF 18Z MODELS: EURO (IT WAS SIX HOURS LATE BECAUSE OF PATHOGENSIS IN THE DATA INGESTED FROM CRIMEA RAOBS THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN COMPROMISED BY LOCALIZED UNREST), RGEM (NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH THE UPGRADED RGIII, AN EXPERIMENTAL RUN OF WHICH DROPPED WIDESPREAD 20-30" ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LWX REGION BUT WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO A LACK OF DATA PROCESSING ROBUSTNESS), AND THE HRRR, WHICH HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT LACKS TWO "O'S" IN THE ACRONYM AND THUS ALWAYS TENDS TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE WINTERTIME SOLUTIONS.

 

THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO DISCONTINUE WSWs FOR PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE AREA (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARR'S RIDGE, WHERE LATEST GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS VERIFY 4-6"/HR ACCUMULATIONS) AND HAVE COORDINATED WITH BOX, GYX, AND ALY TO HOIST BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR THE NEXT FORTNIGHT, IN KEEPING WITH SEASONAL TRENDS.

 

:lmao:

 

Freakin' hilarious!

 

This should rank up there with Jebman's long rant from earlier last week in terms of literary work!

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