weatherwonder Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 So, I gotta ask because I'm a weenie BUT is all that moisture going to slip off the coast or will it pivot a little? I thought we were supposed to get a little somethin' somethin' when the low slides off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 All indications are that the snow is over. Go to bed guys. ALL indications are that the snow is over! Nothing to see here. l.o.l. @ the obs thread - it's a combo of not reading that your question has already been answered and not enjoying what is a really nice scene out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 All indications are that the snow is over. Go to bed guys. ALL indications are that the snow is over! Nothing to see here. l.o.l. @ the obs thread - it's a combo of not reading that your question has already been answered and not enjoying what is a really nice scene out there. this made me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1019 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WINTRY STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MOVING OUT TO SEA TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... STILL NO CHANGES TO WARNINGS AND ADVYS AT THIS TIME. LTST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A HOLE HAS DVLPD IN THE PCPN SHIELD. THIS SEEMS TO BE ALIGNED WITH AN AREA OF NVA CAPTURED IN LTST NAM. WHILE ISENT UPGLIDE MVG OFFSHORE...THERE ARE STILL SVRL FACTORS WHICH SUPPORT PCPN DVLPMNT. FIRST OF ALL...THERE WL BE PLENTY OF LIFT DUE TO UPR JET...WHICH WUD PERMIT RAPID LIFT/PCPN DVLPMNT ONCE A MORE FVRBL SCENARIO RETURNS BENEATH. SECOND...THERES STILL A PLETHORA OF S/WV ENERGY TO SWING THRU. FINALLY...LOPRES TRACKING ACRS SERN CONUS WL BE SENDING ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE TWD THE MID ATLC. SO WHILE BANDING MAY NOT BE QUITE AS OPTIMAL AS ERLR... ITS TOO SOON TO CALL THIS THING OFF. HV TRIMMED PCPN TTLS BY ABT AN INCH DUE TO THE CURRENT LULL. SUBSTANTIVELY...THAT WONT CHG MUCH. THE HIEST TTLS WL BE IN SRN MD...LOWEST NUMBERS WL BE IN THE NWRN CORNER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Precipitation works in 2 dimensional linear fashion. It tracks from California to dc. If it isn't on radar in san Francisco on sunday, it isn't raining or snowing in dc on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1019 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WINTRY STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MOVING OUT TO SEA TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... STILL NO CHANGES TO WARNINGS AND ADVYS AT THIS TIME. LTST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A HOLE HAS DVLPD IN THE PCPN SHIELD. THIS SEEMS TO BE ALIGNED WITH AN AREA OF NVA CAPTURED IN LTST NAM. WHILE ISENT UPGLIDE MVG OFFSHORE...THERE ARE STILL SVRL FACTORS WHICH SUPPORT PCPN DVLPMNT. FIRST OF ALL...THERE WL BE PLENTY OF LIFT DUE TO UPR JET...WHICH WUD PERMIT RAPID LIFT/PCPN DVLPMNT ONCE A MORE FVRBL SCENARIO RETURNS BENEATH. SECOND...THERES STILL A PLETHORA OF S/WV ENERGY TO SWING THRU. FINALLY...LOPRES TRACKING ACRS SERN CONUS WL BE SENDING ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE TWD THE MID ATLC. SO WHILE BANDING MAY NOT BE QUITE AS OPTIMAL AS ERLR... ITS TOO SOON TO CALL THIS THING OFF. HV TRIMMED PCPN TTLS BY ABT AN INCH DUE TO THE CURRENT LULL. SUBSTANTIVELY...THAT WONT CHG MUCH. THE HIEST TTLS WL BE IN SRN MD...LOWEST NUMBERS WL BE IN THE NWRN CORNER. Ok, this answers my question. I wanted to tell everyone to relax, but what do I know? There are grown Mets freaking out in the observation thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 People are pissing Bob off. Wow. It's time for some folks to just go outside and enjoy the cold powder. Enjoy it! I agree and I have been. Beggars can't be choosers- however it would have been nice for a little daytime snow. I usually don't care how much we get, I like to see it fall from my windows during the day. But like I said, oh well! At least we're getting some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Wtf Youre alive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 When you have an MD and other mets telling you the best might be yet to come that should be enough. It's like people haven't seen a snowstorm before. Precip doesn't fall in a uniform fashion. Echos blossom and fade, move all kinds of speeds and directions. The panic is loltastic. What do doctors know about weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Not sure what I'm missing here -- Why is it a hallucination? Radar shows a big hole on the north side of the city. I can attest that it is real. The visibility is excellent and no snow is falling. That's not to say it will STAY that way. But for now, it is what it is. Figured I'd respond here as to not clog up the obs thread. The dry slot itself isn't a hallucination, you're right. The dry slot was expected as the coastal takes over, but even after explaining that in the obs thread all night, there were still posts implying the storm was all but over. It was the constant fretting about the dry slot and the extrapolation of what the radar will look like in 5 minutes that was getting annoying (not directed at you). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 What do doctors know about weather? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Even though I don't have to go into the office tomorrow, I'm heading to bed soon, full of hope that I'll be woken up by thundersnow. Or maybe just awake in the morning to a couple more inches of snow. That would work, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I know, guys. I was confused for about five seconds, then figured it out. Thought I'd post a little humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Figured I'd respond here as to not clog up the obs thread. The dry slot itself isn't a hallucination, you're right. The dry slot was expected as the coastal takes over, but even after explaining that in the obs thread all night, there were still posts implying the storm was all but over. It was the constant fretting about the dry slot and the extrapolation of what the radar will look like in 5 minutes that was getting annoying (not directed at you). Got it... Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 How about some beer obs? So far I have had... Lagunitas Brown Shugga Goose Island Matilda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdurbin1234 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 IS the snow done in my backyard????? I LIVE IN CROFTON. If you need my zipcode PM me. I dont like to give out personal info online Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 IS the snow done in my backyard????? I LIVE IN CROFTON. If you need my zipcode PM me. I dont like to give out personal info online Can you give me your e-mail address? I'm a Nigerian prince, in case you're wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Can you give me your e-mail address? I'm a Nigerian prince, in case you're wondering. LOL... well played! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdurbin1234 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Can you give me your e-mail address? I'm a Nigerian prince, in case you're wondering. If you're from Africa....why are you white? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Can you give me your e-mail address? I'm a Nigerian prince, in case you're wondering. Wow. That friggin cracked me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mscott Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 How about some beer obs? So far I have had... Lagunitas Brown Shugga Goose Island Matilda I have hadEvil twin Molotov lite Bells hopslam Surly abrasive Lagunitas night time And I'm about to crack a Sierra Nevada hop hunter. I am going to hold on to the abyss for now as the snow has yet been good enough for top shelf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 If you're from Africa....why are you white? I don't think his profile pic is actually him... just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdurbin1234 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I don't think his profile pic is actually him... just a guess. oh ok thanks, sorry bout that. Ie had way to much too drink. keep me up to date on school closers. hope I wont have to drive the bus tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Bells White Winter Ale Bells Porter And working on a growler of Champion (local brewery) Earl Grey Brown Ale. How about some beer obs? So far I have had... Lagunitas Brown Shugga Goose Island Matilda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 HALFASS FORECAST DISCUSSIONNOTIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDATLANTICALL NIGHT MONDAY EST ALL MORNING TUE 2015 IIRCILOLATTHEIDEAOFSNOW4U.SYNOPSIS...A STORM THAT WAS MODELED AS A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR THE MID ATLANTIC IS INCREASINGLY TURNING OUT TO BE NO SUCH GODDAMN THING. RADAR INTERPOLATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE WIDESPREAD 2-18" ACCUMULATIONS PROGGED FOR LATITUDES BETWEEN 40 S AND THE RIC SNOWHOLE SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED AND THOSE WHO SUGGESTED SUCH IMPACTS SHOULD BE DRAWN AND QUARTERED THEN SHOT AT DAWN. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE MITIGATION, WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE ZONES. IN THE DALIES.... ER, HOURLIES ... ER, MINUETES ... A BIG FRIGGIN' HOLE IN RADAR RETURNS CENTERED OVER WC/SC/NC/NW/C/EC/SEC/SWC VA AND IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (WHEREVER THEY ARE, SOME SAY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS, SOME SAY AROUND THAT POWER PLANT IN MOUNT STORM) ... BUT NOT, AS WE STRESS, LIMITED TO THAT AREA ... MEANS THAT, IN THE MEANS, WE MEAN ... THAT ANTICIPATED FRONTOGENESIS IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST ... HELL, WE MIGHT AS WELL SAY ... IS NOT HAPPENING TO ANYTHING LIKE THE EXTENT ANTICIPATED OR AS MODELED BY THE HRRR/RGEM/ZZTOP/KBILLYSUPERSOUNDSOFTHE70S SHORT RANGE MODELS. !IN FACT, SUCH FRONTOGENESIS MAY HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE SYNOPTIC PRESENTATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SUITE OF 18Z MODELS: EURO (IT WAS SIX HOURS LATE BECAUSE OF PATHOGENSIS IN THE DATA INGESTED FROM CRIMEA RAOBS THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN COMPROMISED BY LOCALIZED UNREST), RGEM (NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH THE UPGRADED RGIII, AN EXPERIMENTAL RUN OF WHICH DROPPED WIDESPREAD 20-30" ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LWX REGION BUT WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO A LACK OF DATA PROCESSING ROBUSTNESS), AND THE HRRR, WHICH HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT LACKS TWO "O'S" IN THE ACRONYM AND THUS ALWAYS TENDS TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE WINTERTIME SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO DISCONTINUE WSWs FOR PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE AREA (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARR'S RIDGE, WHERE LATEST GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS VERIFY 4-6"/HR ACCUMULATIONS) AND HAVE COORDINATED WITH BOX, GYX, AND ALY TO HOIST BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR THE NEXT FORTNIGHT, IN KEEPING WITH SEASONAL TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 HALFASS FORECAST DISCUSSION NOTIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDATLANTIC ALL NIGHT MONDAY EST ALL MORNING TUE 2015 IIRCILOLATTHEIDEAOFSNOW4U .SYNOPSIS... A STORM THAT WAS MODELED AS A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR THE MID ATLANTIC IS INCREASINGLY TURNING OUT TO BE NO SUCH GODDAMN THING. RADAR INTERPOLATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE WIDESPREAD 2-18" ACCUMULATIONS PROGGED FOR LATITUDES BETWEEN 40 S AND THE RIC SNOWHOLE SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED AND THOSE WHO SUGGESTED SUCH IMPACTS SHOULD BE DRAWN AND QUARTERED THEN SHOT AT DAWN. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE MITIGATION, WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE ZONES. IN THE DALIES.... ER, HOURLIES ... ER, MINUETES ... A BIG FRIGGIN' HOLE IN RADAR RETURNS CENTERED OVER WC/SC/NC/NW/C/EC/SEC/SWC VA AND IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (WHEREVER THEY ARE, SOME SAY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS, SOME SAY AROUND THAT POWER PLANT IN MOUNT STORM) ... BUT NOT, AS WE STRESS, LIMITED TO THAT AREA ... MEANS THAT, IN THE MEANS, WE MEAN ... THAT ANTICIPATED FRONTOGENESIS IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST ... HELL, WE MIGHT AS WELL SAY ... IS NOT HAPPENING TO ANYTHING LIKE THE EXTENT ANTICIPATED OR AS MODELED BY THE HRRR/RGEM/ZZTOP/KBILLYSUPERSOUNDSOFTHE70S SHORT RANGE MODELS. !IN FACT, SUCH FRONTOGENESIS MAY HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE SYNOPTIC PRESENTATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SUITE OF 18Z MODELS: EURO (IT WAS SIX HOURS LATE BECAUSE OF PATHOGENSIS IN THE DATA INGESTED FROM CRIMEA RAOBS THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN COMPROMISED BY LOCALIZED UNREST), RGEM (NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH THE UPGRADED RGIII, AN EXPERIMENTAL RUN OF WHICH DROPPED WIDESPREAD 20-30" ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LWX REGION BUT WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO A LACK OF DATA PROCESSING ROBUSTNESS), AND THE HRRR, WHICH HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT LACKS TWO "O'S" IN THE ACRONYM AND THUS ALWAYS TENDS TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE WINTERTIME SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO DISCONTINUE WSWs FOR PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE AREA (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARR'S RIDGE, WHERE LATEST GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS VERIFY 4-6"/HR ACCUMULATIONS) AND HAVE COORDINATED WITH BOX, GYX, AND ALY TO HOIST BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR THE NEXT FORTNIGHT, IN KEEPING WITH SEASONAL TRENDS. very nicely done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 HALFASS FORECAST DISCUSSION NOTIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDATLANTIC ALL NIGHT MONDAY EST ALL MORNING TUE 2015 IIRCILOLATTHEIDEAOFSNOW4U .SYNOPSIS... A STORM THAT WAS MODELED AS A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR THE MID ATLANTIC IS INCREASINGLY TURNING OUT TO BE NO SUCH GODDAMN THING. RADAR INTERPOLATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE WIDESPREAD 2-18" ACCUMULATIONS PROGGED FOR LATITUDES BETWEEN 40 S AND THE RIC SNOWHOLE SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED AND THOSE WHO SUGGESTED SUCH IMPACTS SHOULD BE DRAWN AND QUARTERED THEN SHOT AT DAWN. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE MITIGATION, WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE ZONES. IN THE DALIES.... ER, HOURLIES ... ER, MINUETES ... A BIG FRIGGIN' HOLE IN RADAR RETURNS CENTERED OVER WC/SC/NC/NW/C/EC/SEC/SWC VA AND IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (WHEREVER THEY ARE, SOME SAY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS, SOME SAY AROUND THAT POWER PLANT IN MOUNT STORM) ... BUT NOT, AS WE STRESS, LIMITED TO THAT AREA ... MEANS THAT, IN THE MEANS, WE MEAN ... THAT ANTICIPATED FRONTOGENESIS IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST ... HELL, WE MIGHT AS WELL SAY ... IS NOT HAPPENING TO ANYTHING LIKE THE EXTENT ANTICIPATED OR AS MODELED BY THE HRRR/RGEM/ZZTOP/KBILLYSUPERSOUNDSOFTHE70S SHORT RANGE MODELS. !IN FACT, SUCH FRONTOGENESIS MAY HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE SYNOPTIC PRESENTATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SUITE OF 18Z MODELS: EURO (IT WAS SIX HOURS LATE BECAUSE OF PATHOGENSIS IN THE DATA INGESTED FROM CRIMEA RAOBS THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN COMPROMISED BY LOCALIZED UNREST), RGEM (NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH THE UPGRADED RGIII, AN EXPERIMENTAL RUN OF WHICH DROPPED WIDESPREAD 20-30" ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LWX REGION BUT WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO A LACK OF DATA PROCESSING ROBUSTNESS), AND THE HRRR, WHICH HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT LACKS TWO "O'S" IN THE ACRONYM AND THUS ALWAYS TENDS TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE WINTERTIME SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO DISCONTINUE WSWs FOR PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE AREA (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARR'S RIDGE, WHERE LATEST GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS VERIFY 4-6"/HR ACCUMULATIONS) AND HAVE COORDINATED WITH BOX, GYX, AND ALY TO HOIST BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR THE NEXT FORTNIGHT, IN KEEPING WITH SEASONAL TRENDS. Freakin' hilarious! This should rank up there with Jebman's long rant from earlier last week in terms of literary work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mscott Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Surly coffee bender now. May be my last if rates don't pick up, I still may have to work at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhode Islander in Balto Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Beer obs: working on a "variety" case of Two Brothers beer my husband and I found on a recent trip to PA. Also had a dram of Booker's and a working on a dram of Blanton's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Hahaha mesonistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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