BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 my formula is QPF x angle of the sun(weenie inflation10/reality) + the total number of cars out on the road noted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I am in your neck of the woods, think we are in a good spot? I think we do fine in MontCo -- hoping for 5". It will definitely be more DC and south but that's OK with me. I really want to hit the 5" mark though. I remember the 1/30/10 event we were predicted for just 2-4" with 6-10" south of DC, and we ended up with 7". Maybe we get lucky with a good band or two! Sure is nice to have no worries at all on precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well, the BEST method is to look at BUFKIT data for soundings. A good rule-of-thumb is for temps in the -12 to -18C range in the best altitudes of strong vertical motion. What's cautioning me in saying 15:1 is a lock is that the best upward vertical velocities seem to be in areas south of DC where the temps at altitude might not be that cold for the whole time. I made a post about this in the main thread. I'd like someone to post some BUFKIT data so I can see where the best VVs are located. I can do that in the main thread. Any particular model choice? I'll start with 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If dry air isn't as big as an issue, I think 13-16:1 ratios are in play, maybe 17:1 ratios? higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishStorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 over/under on 6 for dca? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think we do fine in MontCo -- hoping for 5". It will definitely be more DC and south but that's OK with me. I really want to hit the 5" mark though. I remember the 1/30/10 event we were predicted for just 2-4" with 6-10" south of DC, and we ended up with 7". Maybe we get lucky with a good band or two! Sure is nice to have no worries at all on precip type. I never thought I'd miss living in Largo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 over/under on 6 for dca? My over under is double that...we're breaking the climo mark! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 over/under on 6 for dca? very slightly under... I can see DCA reporting 5.8" while most of the area has 7-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 over/under on 6 for dca? Ill take the over. DCA is just due. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The HRRR is a HRRRible model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Southern pa looks good to my eyes with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 CWG says less than 50/50 chance of the Federal gov't closing tomorrow? Can't imagine a situation where we have frigid temps and 6" on the ground from an overnight storm where the gov't is open. I also bet with a friend that the gov't will be closed tomorrow (payment is in alcoholic beverages), so I have a lot riding on this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hey if it's alright with you guys, I'm going to pretend to live in this region for the night. Just mark me down wherever is getting at least 7". Woo hoo! Snow snow snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hey if it's alright with you guys, I'm going to pretend to live in this region for the night. Just mark me down wherever is getting at least 7". Woo hoo! Snow snow snow! If that were you in your avatar, you could not only pretend to live in this region, but someone would let you live with them I'd bet LOL. Sorry, I had to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hey if it's alright with you guys, I'm going to pretend to live in this region for the night. Just mark me down wherever is getting at least 7". Woo hoo! Snow snow snow! So how long have you been coming around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This day just keeps getting better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 over/under on 6 for dca? Under... its gonna fall apart/ dissipate.. they will definitely get the grass covered but I would not bet on 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If that were you in your avatar, you could not only pretend to live in this region, but someone would let you live with them I'd bet LOL. Sorry, I had to. Okay, that was good. Well done, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So how long have you been coming around here? Well I've been loitering/skulking for a few months now, but I finally decided to take the plunge and create an account today. I guess the six pellets of sleet I saw put me in the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If that were you in your avatar, you could not only pretend to live in this region, but someone would let you live with them I'd bet LOL. Sorry, I had to. So how long have you been coming around here? Calm down hornballs, that is my job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well I've been loitering/skulking for a few months now, but I finally decided to take the plunge and create an account today. I guess the six pellets of sleet I saw put me in the mood. For what?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Calm down hornballs, that is my job. I'm engaged. Just trying to help you guys out of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Calm down hornballs, that is my job. Thank God. A voice of reason. What took you so long? Also banter, I'm glad no one seems to have been seriously hurt, but here's just another piece of evidence of why living in 21208 is terrible for your insurance rates. http://www.wbaltv.com/news/suv-senior-car-bus-collide-in-pikesville-15-injured/31294820 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 One man's rippage is another man's SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For what?. Oh y'all are fun. To hang out with you nerds! I need a little more than a few sleet pellets to get me in that mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm engaged. Just trying to help you guys out of course. Lmao, you are such a helpful fellow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Oh y'all are fun. To hang out with you nerds! I need a little more than a few sleet pellets to get me in that mood. Lol, welcome to the craziest subforum on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I really don't understand why LWX updates its snowfall map so frequently. How does that serve anyone, except confuse people. We are a very, very small group who keep tabs on this stuff continually. Most people would like at once, and move on to the rest of their lives. I can see updating it twice a day, or after each shift, etc, but in the span of 2 hours it took DC from 6 to 8, down to 4 to 6, and then back up to 6 to 8 (with 8 to 10 creeping toward the city from the south)... How is this much change helpful to anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like the next shift of cavemen just showed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I can do that in the main thread. Any particular model choice? I'll start with 12Z GFS NWS Blacksburg put up a extra one at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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