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Feb 16-17th Storm Banter Thread


Bob Chill

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that sounds awful. Hope it works out for you.

 

 

You make a very good point. The freezing temps cause a whole set of other issues. We always focus in snow and that is just half the story here. I am sorry - that really is not good news at your house.

 

 

It is delicious!  What a great weekend that I hope gets at least another day extension.  Oyster stew, lobster, filet mignon, and this oyster fritatta.  If it's snowing this evening, may have to hit Annapolis for brew and lobster rolls.

 

Life is good.

 

 

Frozen pipes suck.  I had my share of problems when I put an addition on here and code required me to run pipes through a north facing attic space.  It froze several times and I ended having to build a bulkhead in the attic to enclose the pipes and a ceiling vent to keep it heated from underneath.  Hopefully, your issues are not too serious.

 

 

Ok so plumber was out. After cutting out the drywall we found no water lines on the exterior wall. He felt under the shower pan and all over the insulation and floorboard and nothing was wet. Not even damp. What was looking like a mystery may have been solved. The area where the wetness was showing up was directly in front of a double joist. Two boards were sandwiched together and had foam insulation between the boards. With the exception of a few spots, where you could see with a flashlight the Tyvek wrap. Cold air was also felt coming in. Verdict... condensation. The back of the drywall was not even stained so what we think has been happening is the cold windy air has been blowing through these small areas where the foam insulation is not. It has been blowing on warm drywall and with our whole house humidifier that we have on the furnace condensation was occurring. Think of a glass of ice water in the summer. It sweats on the outside. We still are not 100% sure but we need to have a contractor come out to repair the drywall anyways and they are going to look things over. For now we are happy we do not have a leak. 

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Holy cow. Look at these modeled ratios at MRB: 5 inches on .23? 24-25 to 1? Thats nuts.

 

150216/2100Z 9 13004KT 15.2F SNOW 24:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 24:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
150217/0000Z 12 13007KT 13.2F SNOW 21:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 22:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150217/0300Z 15 12006KT 12.6F SNOW 25:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 23:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0
150217/0600Z 18 13005KT 12.6F SNOW 16:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 22:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0
150217/0900Z 21 VRB02KT 13.4F SNOW 24:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 22:1| 4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0
150217/1200Z 24 VRB02KT 10.3F SNOW 21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 22:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0

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I might have missed it and if so I apologize but is there an estimate for Massanutten or Charlottesville? We are heading up there from Raleigh and our kiddos are pestering me about how much snow they will see. All I have found are D.C. and Baltimore estimates. Thank you!!!

 

I did not see any earlier response to your question, my estimate would be 7-10 inches of snow for your destination and most points within 100 miles south, but some mixed precip earlier en route including possible freezing rain near NC-VA border. The storm is about to begin so if you haven't already left, you might want to consider that risk factor on the roads and wait for the storm to pass (should be all done by mid-day Tuesday). If not expect a slow drive.

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I've always liked you and your contributions, but you are an insufferable whiny b**ch at this point

This happens every year at this point. Snow is imoby thing and in a crappy year things get testy as the last chances come and go. It's even worse when half the forum is going to finally cash in but some won't. I am sorry it annoys you to have to read it, I really am not being an a$$, but we are in your region and it's not fair to expect the people up here to just either pretend it looks good for us or not analyze is objectively and discuss so you can enjoy snow without having to read it. I also don't get the problem. Many more times I have been getting snow up here and dc/balt are dealing with the sharp cutoff at the rain snow line and I never have an issue reading about the analysis or at times venting when it's not working out. If this was 50 miles south and the sharp cutoff was right through dc all this thread would be was analysis of that and that's how it should be. In fairness I agree the negative posts were inappropriate to the main thread so I moved over here. I just feel there is a double standard. When dc gets screwed over there are 20 pages in it. When northern md does 3-4 posts a day and it's too much.

Eta: I like your posts and contributions too Matt and I do not want to start anything. Things just get testy about this.

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It's beyond annoying at this point...every single post he makes is the same thing...every single one...Not only is it insufferable at this point but it has been accompanied by poor synoptic meteorology and pattern recognition..

I don't mind you're being annoyed with my negative attitude, That's warranted but I will defend my analysis that if I wanted a hecs the mid week vort was the one with that potential. I'd rather a 25% chsnce at 12"+ then an 80% chsnce at 4". I know most disagree on that its just my preference. We might still get some snow from the upper energy passage wed even without a surface storm. Had so much energy not run out ahead of the trough with this system I think we might have had a big system midweek. I don't think that is bad analysis even if it's analysis you don't want to hear.
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What's the best method?

Well, the BEST method is to look at BUFKIT data for soundings.  A good rule-of-thumb is for temps in the -12 to -18C range in the best altitudes of strong vertical motion.  What's cautioning me in saying 15:1 is a lock is that the best upward vertical velocities seem to be in areas south of DC where the temps at altitude might not be that cold for the whole time.  I made a post about this in the main thread.  I'd like someone to post some BUFKIT data so I can see where the best VVs are located. 

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