WEATHER53 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rough estimate for QPF at DCA off 00z UKIE is 16/17mm or so... which equates to just a lil over .6" of QPF Game on. Radar right now pretty much is what it will be when it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 4-8" looks good right now, maybe 5-10" for DCA if the Euro supports UKMET and NAM to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So basically you are giving zero weight to the Euro and Ukie. I counted about 0.4" qpf for the UKIE... which would be a low end warning event for us at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It looks slightly South compared to 12z it is. This post is completely for the northern MD area. DC south, and probably Baltimore south is totally fine, and tomorrow this could still shift north, but for the people on here north of i70 there was no north trend at all today, models have pretty much held steady or if anything shifted south ever so slightly. We can hope the normal last second north adjustment happens but there was no guidance evidence of it today. I was really wanting to see things amp up a lot more today but the flow seems a little suppressive still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I counted about 0.4" qpf for the UKIE... which would be a low end warning event for us at best... So that would be 6" which is nice. But he has Mappy at 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rough estimate for QPF at DCA off 00z UKIE is 16/17mm or so... which equates to just a lil over .6" of QPF Really nice - it's led the way with this one sniffing out the trends and emphasizing the first portion of the storm. High confidence in at least 0.5" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 UU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 1020 high won't supress anything. The 1038 would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So that would be 6" which is nice. But he has Mappy at 3". Hmmm... maybe it's 0.5" for us from that qpf total map. Nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hmmm... maybe it's 0.5" for us from that qpf total map. Nice hit. Yup i was about to edit my post after i saw that map. Unless the Euro folds tonight i think we are good for 5-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 1020 high won't supress anything. The 1038 would.Euro/UKMET/NAM rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ukie cut back on precip a bit around Maryland, but it still looks pretty good. But look at Boston -- 24 hours ago, the Ukie was giving them nearly 1" of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Last 2 runs of the euro have been basically identical less the noise. Trends imply a shave at the n extent. I would be a little surprised if the euro shaves more than .05-.1 from 12z. It's almost time to let the models go and enjoy the cold smoke. However much falls in your slice of real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Was the UKMET upgraded before this winter? It's been performing really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Last 2 runs of the euro have been basically identical less the noise. Trends imply a shave at the n extent. I would be a little surprised if the euro shaves more than .05-.1 from 12z. It's almost time to let the models go and enjoy the cold smoke. However much falls in your slice of real estate. People have brought up 1/30/10, 3/2/14, and 3/16/14. I went through and looked at the model runs leading up to onset of those events. 1/30/10 of course was 'gone' but then got reclaimed by us less than 24 hours before onset, with the 0Z runs the night before suggesting Winter Storm Warning totals for DC and south. The Winter Storm Warning got expanded northward during the morning of the event as snow totals started to outpace QPF on the northern edges. 3/2/14-- There was a close-in Euro run that spit out 10"+ south of DC. The northern cut-off was well modeled, and it verified pretty well. The southern areas, including DC immediate metro, under-performed somewhat. 3/16-17/14--- Even the last 12Z runs heading into the event later that evening suggested a south of DC stripe with a very tight gradient up to the PA border. That of course didn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Enjoy, guys. Glad you're scoring. Shovel some for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Gym, your post is a perfect summarization of where my head is. Models aren't going to show perfect reality. Snow is all but guaranteed for our entire subforum. Low looks pretty nice and leads are short. Time to let the chips fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm sure....travel bans and everthing, what else is there to kill time. Enjoy the storm, Ian. If you're popping in on the heels of the best 2 week stretch of your life...you have to at least post your guess for dca... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Gym, your post is a perfect summarization of where my head is. Models aren't going to show perfect reality. Snow is all but guaranteed for our entire subforum. Low looks pretty nice and leads are short. Time to let the chips fall. Yup. Maybe one trend is more valid than another on here, but I think for the region-wide type events, it's impossible to nail down exactly what happens at the edges-- both north and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 0z models for DC - quite a spread, plus uncertainty about ratios....This is not an easy forecast...at least yet.... NAM: 0.71" GFS: 0.47" GGEM: ~0.23" UKMET: ~0.62" RGEM: ~0.51" EURO - TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmac Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If you're popping in on the heels of the best 2 week stretch of your life...you have to at least post your guess for dca... +1 bob... what's your DCA call benchmark? keep in mind our guys have been burned a couple times in recent memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 0z models for DC - quite a spread...This is not an easy forecast...at least yet.... NAM: 0.71" GFS: 0.47" GGEM: ~0.23" UKMET: ~0.62" EURO - TBD Throw out the GGEM, and your lowest snowfall forecast is 5.6" with a 12:1 ratio in DCA on the GFS. Looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If you're popping in on the heels of the best 2 week stretch of your life...you have to at least post your guess for dca...Oh man, only took a cursory glance at things, but think the best looks to the south...especially given latest trend for the our last blizzard to exert more of a force as a 50/50....6"? I like RIC in this...maybe 1' there. I think DC, and us up here for that matter, want this to slooow down, get that 50/50 to relent a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 0z models for DC - quite a spread, plus uncertainty about ratios....This is not an easy forecast...at least yet.... NAM: 0.71" GFS: 0.47" GGEM: ~0.23" UKMET: ~0.62" EURO - TBD RGEM was ~0.45-0.5" - it's performed better this winter than GGEM so it's a better model choice at this range I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 +1 bob... what's your DCA call benchmark? keep in mind our guys have been burned a couple times in recent memory Over under line on DCA is prob 6". I would take the over if I trusted the building maintenance guy that measures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro's going to be good is my guess from 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Oh man, only took a cursory glance at things, but think the best looks to the south...especially given latest trend for the our last blizzard to exert more of a force as a 50/50....6"? I like RIC in this...maybe 1' there. I think DC, and us up here for that matter, want this to slooow down, get that 50/50 to relent a bit. Ha! We posted at the same time. Agree, dca 6" is the money line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 EURO has lost its east coast cyclogenesis mojo this year. keep that in mind. RGEM has been killing it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro quick...4pm start for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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