StudentOfClimatology Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 New GGEM is weaker with the sfc low, hence flatter/drier overall. Hopefully just the GGEM being its usual self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ouch...GGEM is south with QPF. DC barely gets .3-4" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 FWIW, 00z GGEM at 24 has 1008mb SLP in C AL... 36 is 1006mb SLP in NE SC How does this compare to its earlier run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 New GGEM is weaker with the sfc low, hence flatter/drier overall. Hopefully just the GGEM being its usual self. Wonder what's causing it to do that. Guidance overall has trended toward a stronger, more amped system with a similar track. Hopefully just a burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ouch...GGEM is south with QPF. DC barely gets .3-4" QPF I have nothing against 4-6" of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 both Canadian models are south and weaker all we need from them is their cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 FWIW, 00z GGEM at 24 has 1008mb SLP in C AL... 36 is 1006mb SLP in NE SC How does it initialize vs reality? IE... How does the model SFC low look to what is happening now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wonder what's causing it to do that. Guidance overall has trended toward a stronger, more amped system with a similar track. Hopefully just a burp. To be fair, the RGEM trended south, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 both Canadian models are south and weaker all we need from them is their cold air... As long as the Ukie and Euro hold we are good. If not i fear the Titanic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 both Canadian models are south and weaker all we need from them is their cold air... I think they've tended to be that way for the most part through the last few cycles, if I'm not mistaken? Not sure about south, but drier especially north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 How does the UKMET look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 To be fair, the RGEM trended south, too. With the precip, or the low? I thought it was mostly due to a weaker system, thus a less robust precip shield. But I haven't exactly looked all that in-depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ggem has sucked this winter. Rgem not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 How does the UKMET look? Coming out right now.. give me a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 30 (note: 24 has ~2mm for DCA before the 30 map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 30 00zUKIE30hrsQPF2-15-15.gif very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It looks the same to me...low might be weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What's with the Brits and Canucks and their unreadable maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GGEM sucks.. I hope it shows 0 inches for me by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 FWIW, 00z GGEM at 24 has 1008mb SLP in C AL... 36 is 1006mb SLP in NE SC Central SC is better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My current thoughts BWI: 4" DCA: 5.8" EZF: 8.3" RIC: 7.9" SBY: 6.5" mapgirl: 3" OKV: 3.5" Ji: 4.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rough estimate for QPF at DCA off 00z UKIE is 16/17mm or so... which equates to just a lil over .6" of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 30 (note: 24 has ~2mm for DCA before the 30 map) 00zUKIE30hrsQPF2-15-15.gif It looks slightly South compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rough estimate for QPF at DCA off 00z UKIE is 16/17mm or so... which equates to about .6 QPF That's solid. At 15:1 on the high end your looking at 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ouch...GGEM is south with QPF. DC barely gets .3-4" QPF looks like less to me....maybe 0.2/0.25 for dc...terrible run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My current thoughts BWI: 4" DCA: 5.8" EZF: 8.3" RIC: 7.9" SBY: 6.5" mapgirl: 3" OKV: 3.5" Ji: 4.5" Sounds like a good call to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My current thoughts BWI: 4" DCA: 5.8" EZF: 8.3" RIC: 7.9" SBY: 6.5" mapgirl: 3" OKV: 3.5" Ji: 4.5" So basically you are giving zero weight to the Euro and Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We will still need the 12z run tomorrow AM. Need to see if the stronger SFC low verifies or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So basically you are giving zero weight to the Euro and Ukie. Its a rough call, and for this one I am going to stick with what I know. Better to adjust up than down as well, at least in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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