Interstate Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 QPF so far looks just about identical to 18z in central/northern MD We I think we are pretty locked... and no northern trend at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Total Run These maps aren't very useful....I think that has been mentioned a bunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 DCA temps in the teens the entire storm per 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We I think we are pretty locked... and no northern trend at the end You get like 5 inches. How much did you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You get like 5 inches. How much did you want? And that is just on the GFS, on the Euro we get 7". I really don't get the moaning especially since the 2 best models have us getting the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We I think we are pretty locked... and no northern trend at the end I have no idea which model will be right... RGEM and GFS give the northern tier an advisory event. Euro has looked much better. Who knows how it will work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 And that is just on the GFS, on the Euro we get 7". I really don't get the moaning especially since the 2 best models have us getting the most snow. The Euro and the UKmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The Euro and the UKmet? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS slumps a tad. Small changes but not quite as much deep moisture north of N. VA. Not a horrible run but not more generous with getting moisture into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I have no idea which model will be right... RGEM and GFS give the northern tier an advisory event. Euro has looked much better. Who knows how it will work out? RGEM/GGEM were good cautionary tales on a couple events last winter where QPF was too wet and north....Though they seem to have a suppression bias...plus the fact that the GGEM is awful this winter - of course I hope it gets wet in 15 minutes ...If the euro is wet again, I think you just toss the GFS and go all-in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS slumps a tad. Small changes but not quite as much deep moisture north of N. VA. Not a horrible run but not more generous with getting moisture into the region. What is this deep moisture stuff you are talking about today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hmmm...the dozen poster from PA that surface like cicadas every time there is a big snowstorm, are nowhere to be found....I wonder why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We I think we are pretty locked... and no northern trend at the end Yrp the North trend seems to be over, fingers crossed. Gfs and more importantly the RGEM are almost indentical to the 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS has been pretty insistent on a low QPF idea for out here. Its an outlier at this point. But weird anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What is this deep moisture stuff you are talking about today? The blue stuff is not really into DC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 image.jpg The blue stuff is not really into DC on this run. It's very close. At game time, it will move north a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS has been pretty insistent on a low QPF idea for out here. Its an outlier at this point. But weird anyways. It isn't that weird. It is an inferior model with miller A's...I don't think the upgrade has completely re-worked that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS has a feedback low off the NC coast. It maybe real or imaginary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Banding might save us. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What a beautiful set of runs for Central VA tonight. QPF looked great on all models. The only concern from a temp standpoint was the NAM showing a slight warm nose at 800 for a few hours near RIC. Most of those in the metro live N or W of the airport though. Good luck to all of those in the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS has a feedback low off the NC coast. It maybe real or imaginary. Might be that second wave we were concerned about yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I agree... What is there to stop it. It always come north. Usually it does but I'm starting to think (seeing the latest Nam, Rgem, and Gfs) from Ric to Fburg might actually bulleye this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS has been pretty insistent on a low QPF idea for out here. Its an outlier at this point. But weird anyways. Still getting better though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Moved the debate between Matt/Kevin to Banter. Take it there please. UKMET is up next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Would it be a terrible idea to ban posting of snow maps in the storm thread? They are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still getting better though When you look at the surface at hour 36 the low looks like it's in a perfect location. You would think that supports a wetter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Would it be a terrible idea to ban posting of snow maps in the storm thread? They are useless. yes..I think with ratios somewhat of an unknown at this point, and an all snow solution for almost everyone, QPF makes the most sense...then people can double or triple it if they want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 yes..I think with ratios somewhat of an unknown at this point, and an all snow solution for almost everyone, QPF makes the most sense...then people can double or triple it if they want I know I value QPF maps much more, especially Euro since I can't get them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 FWIW, 00z GGEM at 24 has 1008mb SLP in C AL... 36 is 1006mb SLP in NE SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some Wxbell snowmaps are better than qpf if you just convert the standard 10-1 to liquid. More detail with distribution than qpf. I like them for that reason alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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