nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What time does the RGEM start? It already initialized...should be within range on the crappy maps within the next 15 or so minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Warnings posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like about .37 for you and .47 here. Of course, it's the nam, but the point is that any shift of 25 miles pushes our qpf up another .10. We'll get there. Not as much as Chill-land, but we'll be good. Half inch of liquid is nothing to sneeze at in an airmass like this. Looks good and with another bump up or 2 it will become a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 10:20 sooner than that just after 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yep. That is typically because of a better thermal profile in the max lift zone north of where the heavier QPF may fall. You're right, we see that time and time again, it'll be interesting if the sim reflectivity data per the HRRR and the RAP pick up on this. I'm usually in the max and then it ends up in northern Maryland. Howevver, this time the max is way south of me so I'm not sure what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 you'll make it up on ratios some how, I'm sure lol No one is going to have to worry about ratios with this one. Thats what makes this storm awesome. Its just so damn cold. .43 at OKV is fine in my book. Thats probably at least 6 inches. And its not going anywhere for a couple of weeks if the models are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Warnings posted Still a watch for the northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 WSW Warning just posted. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC953 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015VAZ040-051>053-055>057-501-502-506-161100-/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0003.150216T2300Z-150217T1700Z//O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0005.150216T2100Z-150217T1700Z//O.CON.KLWX.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-150216T1500Z/RAPPAHANNOCK-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-EASTERN LOUDOUN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...LEESBURG...ASHBURN953 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY......WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PMMONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ANDCONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTEDMONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.* WIND CHILL...5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20SMONDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAYMORNING.* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMINGSOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURESWILL CONTINUE TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THAT CAN QUICKLYCAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROST BITE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOWCOVERED AND SLIPPERY WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO ONE HALFMILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED ROADS ANDLOW VISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVELLING DANGEROUS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDSWILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT INFROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT ANDGLOVES.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hres nam has pretty much everyone in the mid-upper teens through the event. Some low-mid 20's far se in s md. Snowstorms in the teens in the MA are not common. Especially the closer burbs. This is a special one.. Bob--better ratios? Might have been covered 1000x earlier? Apologies if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Half inch of liquid is nothing to sneeze at in an airmass like this. Looks good and with another bump up or 2 it will become a great storm. Question about the ratios: Would the 15:1 ratios be region-wide.... or only in the areas with the best lift and banding, where snow growth would be ideal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hres nam has pretty much everyone in the mid-upper teens through the event. Some low-mid 20's far se in s md. Snowstorms in the teens in the MA are not common. Especially the closer burbs. This is a special one. Have to think that if the clouds come in earlier enough forecasted highs tomorrow may bust by several degrees. Even the metros will struggle to get out of the teens during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still a watch for the northern areas. Reading the NWS discussion, they're waiting for another tick north. The fact that we don't have advisories and still a watch is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM 24 hr map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Amazing this storm is coming with such a ridiculous air mass in place. Coldest storm since the start of pd2(2003)? Not sure about DC, but we were 16F for 1/30/10, and that was during the day. We'll be a little warmer than that tomorrow, but forecast of 12F tomorrow night. One of the storms last year was very cold too, but I can't remember which one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Question about the ratios: Would the 15:1 ratios be region-wide.... or only in the areas with the best lift and banding, where snow growth would be ideal? JB always says look for the areas around -8. In this case everyone is that or colder so I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Reading the NWS discussion, they're waiting for another tick north. The fact that we don't have advisories and still a watch is good. Yeah, good point. I dread nothing more than being downgraded from watch to advisory. Although I am only like a mile and a half from the warning area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 00z RGEM good to go... here is 36 (mitch posted 24 above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GGEM is warmer in VA and north YET it has a incredible cuttoff to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM 24 hr map Looks north of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM cut off of heavy stuff is brutal, but the light stuff expanded north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM 24 hr map Looks like a stronger surface low there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Question about the ratios: Would the 15:1 ratios be region-wide.... or only in the areas with the best lift and banding, where snow growth would be ideal? JB always says look for the areas around -8. In this case everyone is that or colder so I have no idea. -10F to -15F in the snow growth zone is ideal for dendrite growth. NAM had a "warm" layer of -5F from about 800mb-700mb, but in that ideal temp range above that. I think we'll have nice crystal growth. I think 15:1 is probably a touch too high for an area-wide average (maybe more 13-14:1, although maybe I'm splitting hairs), but I think some of the jackpot zones will end up with ratios of 15-17:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 New event. Winter Storm Warning from 2/16/2015 6:00 PM to 2/17/2015 12:00 PM EST for Montgomery County, Howard County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM is still a pretty crappy solution north of Baltimore, Its a good hit DC south. Very tight gradient on good qpf, very light 1-2" snows get well into PA but more then that is Baltimore South. RGEM has been pretty good lately I wish the NAM was south and the RGEM was the one trending north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Reading the NWS discussion, they're waiting for another tick north. The fact that we don't have advisories and still a watch is good. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll all be in the warning come tomorrow, and maybe a bump to 6-10" for DC if the rest of the guidance looks like the NAM. Glad they're playing it safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM is still a pretty crappy solution north of Baltimore, Its a good hit DC south. Very tight gradient on good qpf, very light 1-2" snows get well into PA but more then that is Baltimore South. RGEM has been pretty good lately I wish the NAM was south and the RGEM was the one trending north. like the rest of the models, it can be jumpy on a relative basis to the globe, that jump isn't much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 like the rest of the models, it can be jumpy on a relative basis to the globe, that jump isn't much yea I think its becoming clear that the northern edge of the heavy snow banding will probably set up somewhere in our area. I think DC is safe. North of York is probably out of it for more then a couple inches. Somewhere in between is where the fringe of the significant snows will set up. I have no idea where that will be, and history suggests it usually ends up north of where models put it 24 hours out, but I am still nervous as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 As of now, I'm thinking this is a 3-5" snowfall M/D line south to Baltimore, with 6" south of the city. Maybe some 8" jackpots in the DC area. I'm holding out hope that the whole CWA gets warning criteria snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 As of now, I'm thinking this is a 3-5" snowfall M/D line south to Baltimore, with 6" south of the city. Maybe some 8" jackpots in the DC area. I'm holding out hope that the whole CWA gets warning criteria snow. since I'll be doing the measuring for mby, I suspect mby will be the jackpot for the area...just a hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm usually in the max and then it ends up in northern Maryland. Howevver, this time the max is way south of me so I'm not sure what to think. Wes -- Not a perfect match but the Jan 30 2010 event may not be a bad analog (prior to snowmaggedon). Best QPF across central/southern VA, where snow amounts in the 6-12" range were observed. However a good swath of 6-8" of fluff extended well north into the DC metro area, without as much QPF. I wouldn't be surprised if we again see 2 max w-e axes, one farther south where the QPF is higher but perhaps the snow crystals are not as optimal, and maybe another one farther north (typically around I-70 as we often joke about) where the QPF isn't as high but the dendritic growth is optimal. That initial northern "finger" band if you will. It would appear to me however, given the thermal profiles aloft, that even the northern band will be farther south (compared to climo) this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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