Amped Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Love how the NAM has the -10c and the 0c so close together, you usually don't see that signature over this area. Looks like DC and most of the Delmarva gets omega bombed on this run. Would be the first 10+ event for DCA in 5 years, but it's still the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is the blue 0.75-1"? Light blue should be that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 High res looks great too. Notable bump N from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 4km NAM suggest the heaviest snow falls in DC/NOVA between 1a-4aish. Through 7a, 0.7" for DC, 0.5" for Balt, 0.9" near Wes/Southern PWC/Stafford County. ETA: Ninja'd by Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 More: MTN-.53 RIC-1.02" EZF-.88" SBY-.93" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think I may bust on my under 10" winter at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 One more: BOS-.12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Officially: DCA-.70" IAD-.71" BWI-.58" What is funny - Anyone got JYO - Where is JI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Later for us. 6'ish? Sounds reasonable. Looks like .3-.4 qpf for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Pretty nice that the nam is picking up on more intense banding further north. Another 50 miles N is well within the realm. I'm all weenied out right now but the stronger the storm the better chance of a shellacking in Nova/MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think I may bust on my under 10" winter at DCA. nah, you've got the snow measurer on your side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think I may bust on my under 10" winter at DCA. Maybe it will get Matt up to close to his forecast as his temp call is going to be pretty doggone good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What is funny - Anyone got JYO - Where is JI? .53" that's odd, but that's what it says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 actually, the NAM is showing as the PV moves in (60 hrs. & later), the storm off the coast is brought back west....I think BOS may get their share after all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 .53" that's odd, but that's what it says It is what it is showing. I am even further west and I would say in the .45 range... Odd when you do not do as well to the west.. BUt I think we have some drier air out here that could be a challenge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It is what it is showing. I am even further west and I would say in the .45 range... Odd when you do not do as well to the west.. BUt I think we have some drier air out here that could be a challenge! you'll make it up on ratios some how, I'm sure lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sounds reasonable. Looks like .3-.4 qpf for us? Looks like about .37 for you and .47 here. Of course, it's the nam, but the point is that any shift of 25 miles pushes our qpf up another .10. We'll get there. Not as much as Chill-land, but we'll be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It is what it is showing. I am even further west and I would say in the .45 range... Odd when you do not do as well to the west.. BUt I think we have some drier air out here that could be a challenge! All guidance has been showing that dimple of lower qpf toward the blue ridge. I suppose it's downsloping early on and too far west once the low exits the coast. I'm really not sure. Certainly looks terrain related to me. Hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We would be looking at 15:1 Yes, in this environment, climo (realistic analogs) would support at least 15-1. 11-12 to 1 is more climo, and 20-1 is tough outside of any northern stream clippers. But I must say, the sounding profiles, at least with the 12Z runs, were very good up here, with deep moisture and lift above the -10C isotherm. Averaging out all the various SLRs as well as SLR techniques at work today, I couldn't find any lower than 15-1 (...other than climo). Optimal temps aloft, and very cold surface temps, with the bulk of the accumulating snow occurring after dark = optimal accumulation efficiency for mid Feb. As good as it gets around here really.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 HGR- 0.27" MRB- 0.36" OKV- 0.43" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 you'll make it up on ratios some how, I'm sure lol Beats a Whiff.. but is NAM overdoing precip? That is my concern.. tends to be wet from all I remember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thinking DCA to BWI will be big winners. And not cause I'm in Odenton. A northern band always sets up a bit north of modeling and this area is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What time does the RGEM start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like about .37 for you and .47 here. Of course, it's the nam, but the point is that any shift of 25 miles pushes our qpf up another .10. We'll get there. Not as much as Chill-land, but we'll be good. Thanks. I guess the southerners must cash on every now and again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thinking DCA to BWI will be big winners. And not cause I'm in Odenton. A northern band always sets up a bit north of modeling and this area is it here's my choice.....Tappahannock, VA 1.03" qpf and no mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thinking DCA to BWI will be big winners. And not cause I'm in Odenton. A northern band always sets up a bit north of modeling and this area is it Yep. That is typically because of a better thermal profile in the max lift zone north of where the heavier QPF may fall. You're right, we see that time and time again, it'll be interesting if the sim reflectivity data per the HRRR and the RAP pick up on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hres nam has pretty much everyone in the mid-upper teens through the event. Some low-mid 20's far se in s md. Snowstorms in the teens in the MA are not common. Especially the closer burbs. This is a special one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What time does the RGEM start? 10:20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Beats a Whiff.. but is NAM overdoing precip? That is my concern.. tends to be wet from all I remember! Euro is the wettest model right now which should give everyone hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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