yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Great run richmond to baltimore. No real bad spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks to be more significant than that, 0.5 line made a pretty big jump on the insta weather maps, tickles DC at 33. yea i was being conservative, adjusting for timing differences. it was definitely a noticeable shift north and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like a bit more than 0.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 last 3 runs of NAM for DCA 0.49, 0.47, more Looks like almost .75 for you and over .75 for me on the last run. It's a little more amped at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like a bit more than 0.7" Coming in line with the Euro is seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not necessarily. The model shows light precip but doesn't mean it's reaching the ground yet. NWP accounts for this -- liquid QPF is only "precip" that reaches the ground -- doesn't mean it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So...officially NAM'd finally, it would appear! I know those snow maps are not necessarily the greatest, but the fact that the northern extent of more significant amounts moved farther north I'd think is a good sign. That said, as was mentioned above, precip amounts might be more useful. Now...can the RGEM, GFS, Ukie, GGEM, and Euro continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Great run. Close to the euro. Would take very little for the .50 line to hit the M/D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NWP accounts for this -- liquid QPF is only "precip" that reaches the ground -- doesn't mean it's right I'll agree to disagree ;-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 is the low north or just more organized this run? to me, it looked like more of the latter. in any case, precip was north, so that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Great run. Close to the euro. Would take very little for the .50 line to hit the M/D. Yes. And just about as importantly, having that sharp gradient get pushed out farther, or smoothed out with higher amounts (something like that, not sure how to word it exactly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It is a region wide 8-12 run. All hail the Ukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Best run of the day! That likely pushes 8-12 into DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 is the low north or just more organized this run? to me, it looked like more of the latter. in any case, precip was north, so that works. Not sure about how much farther north it really is, but it's more amped. Which helps with the better precip extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 is the low north or just more organized this run? to me, it looked like more of the latter. in any case, precip was north, so that works. The low is a touch north and a bit more dynamic looking coming up from the south. Main thing is it's wetter and heavy bands further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 is the low north or just more organized this run? to me, it looked like more of the latter. in any case, precip was north, so that works. Stronger storm but about the same track. By 9z when it's off of the NC coast it's 1k vs 1008 with 18z run. It was stronger early on too. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM is crazy. Easily 7" with 10:1 rations. Maybe double digits with more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM is crazy. Easily 7" with 10:1 rations. Maybe double digits with more. We would be looking at 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like almost .75 for you and over .75 for me on the last run. It's a little more amped at the surface. great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Start time still 4-5pmish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The low is a touch north and a bit more dynamic looking coming up from the south. Main thing is it's wetter and heavy bands further north. Amazing this storm is coming with such a ridiculous air mass in place. Coldest storm since the start of pd2(2003)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The low is a touch north and a bit more dynamic looking coming up from the south. Main thing is it's wetter and heavy bands further north. Stronger storm but about the same track. By 9z when it's off of the NC coast it's 1k vs 1008 with 18z run. It was stronger early on too. Good stuff. Thanks. This is what I was wondering as well. Similar track and placement, but notably stronger with a wider (and wetter) precipitation field. Good point about the heavy bands farther north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll agree to disagree ;-). i'll give you this -- while technically all modeled QPF is an estimate of liquid that reaches the ground -- we're a long way away from getting an accurate specification/simulation of cloud microphysics, our current parameterizations are pretty simplified when you start considering how complicated the processes really are. A model won't print out "QPF" until the column can support it reaching the ground (purely model talk)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Enjoy Wow. 0.50-0.75 line solidly through the metro. S-MD really gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 i'll give you this -- while technically all modeled QPF is an estimate of liquid that reaches the ground -- we're a long way away from getting an accurate specification/simulation of cloud microphysics, our current parameterizations are pretty simplified when you start considering how complicated the processes really are. A model won't print out "QPF" until the column can support it reaching the ground... Thanks for the explanation it's helpful. Final thought is if the model initializes the BL condition wrong and it's drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow. 0.50-0.75 line solidly through the metro. S-MD really gets hammered. Is the blue 0.75-1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Start time still 4-5pmish? Later for us. 6'ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks for the explanation it's helpful. Final thought is if the model initializes the BL condition wrong and it's drier. always a good point -- if you're BL is initialized wrong, don't expect your model to get QPF right (sometimes I fall into the trap of explaining things in a "perfect model" sense). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Officially: DCA-.70" IAD-.71" BWI-.58" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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