Heisy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 00z NAM looks more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 00z NAM looks more amped Hopefully the heavy bands come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 DCA ~3 inches at 02z TUES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM is deeper with the low @1z versus 18z(1006 vs 1008). Northern extent has shifted north. This should be a better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hopefully the heavy bands come north. Expanding at hour 27! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM looks good, but really looks good down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The mean at OKV is 10.55 in case anyone in the valley wants to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM is deeper with the low @1z versus 18z(1006 vs 1008). Northern extent has shifted north. This should be a better run. The run does look better so far...I'm at 24 ETA: out to 27 and the heavier stuff has expanded a little north. First time it has that potential "NAMing" look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 DCA ~7" by 06z TUES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 slightly wetter for MBY so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The initial light qpf at 21z might not reach the ground due to dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 3" line to BWI by 11pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM looks good, but really looks good down south. Where do you mean down South....Southern part of LWX CWA.....EZF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snowing at 1"/hr after 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't know why people in here always talk so much about the SREFs. Not a great model in my opinion. Certain members often tend to bias the output. It's farther North than all other guidance whats new. Now if the RGEM starts showing the best precip that far North then I will believe it. I've been watching the SREF mean this year, and it's been spot on inside 24 hours. I wouldn't discount the SREF mean. I think it's really dangerous to look at individual members. But if you can weed out the extremely unlikely outliers, you can get a better picture of likely outcome. 8.4" I bet is gonna be darn accurate in and around DCA. I'd put it up against some of the best human forecasters in many cases, but perhaps I'm even misusing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 DCA ~7" by 06z TUES please stop posting 20:1 ratio output.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Difference between this NAM and 18z is DC is getting into the heavy bands, 18z had them just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The initial light qpf at 21z might not reach the ground due to dry air. NWP should account for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6" at Bwi by 2 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow. Richmond gets rocked this run. So does DCA. Holy smoke job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 looks better to my eyes. 25 mile shift north, give or take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Pouring snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 please stop posting 20:1 ratio output.... Huh? Its what the IWM snow maps show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Definitely a wetter run for most, especially the northern areas. MBY looks better vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NWP should account for that? Not necessarily. The model shows light precip but doesn't mean it's reaching the ground yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 last 3 runs of NAM for DCA 0.49, 0.47, more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 looks better to my eyes. 25 mile shift north, give or take? Looks to be more significant than that, 0.5 line made a pretty big jump on the insta weather maps, tickles DC at 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'd like to encourage folks to post liquid QPF numbers rather than snow totals given the ratio issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Huh? Its what the IWM snow maps show who cares?...doesn't mean they're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 At 33 hrs there is almost 12" up to DC. PLEASE stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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