84 Hour NAM Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wouldn't dry air initially allow temperatures to fall more until precipitation arrives? eta: assuming precip starts around sundown We don't need temps to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Final call. No real changes in our region, except slightly lower totals in southeastern VA near the NC border. If you squint, you may have noticed the 8-12" line move a couple of miles closer to DC. 20150216-17_MAsnow_final.png If I interpolate correctly looks like about 5" for Westminster/Parkton/Manchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Anyome trying to freak out over 0.1 inch qpf with the ratios we are expecting needs to calm down. This will be a great event with temps in the teens! We were all looking toward spring last week. Get some vodka or rum and lets enjoy this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Final call. No real changes in our region, except slightly lower totals in southeastern VA near the NC border. If you squint, you may have noticed the 8-12" line move a couple of miles closer to DC. 20150216-17_MAsnow_final.png You have been pretty much right all winter... so i like this call from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What are your thoughts down here around EZF in terms of dynamics and such? Closer to the good stuff. High probability of seeing those 8-10" amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 where would you place the most worry in NOVA? North of 50? 66? route 7? just curious All of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z GGEM - 0.25" contour DCA-IAD, 0.10" just south M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here's your lift Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Predicting the exact location of heavy bands is next to impossible. Those that get into those bands that persist will be jackpot zones. Areas that remain in weak to moderate lift are going to be in the battle zone. I think there will be a sharp cutoff and might be south of the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z GGEM - 0.25" contour DCA-IAD, 0.10" just south M/D line Yeesh. Sounds similar to the RGEM, and I think it's drier like last night too, compared to the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Predicting the exact location of heavy bands is next to impossible. Those that get into those bands that persist will be jackpot zones. Areas that remain in weak to moderate lift are going to be in the battle zone. I think there will be a sharp cutoff and might be south of the M/D line. yea this is how the january 6 (?) clipper was. i was in on that moderate band with temps in the mid 20s and it produced. it was an easy 4" that morning. with rates...at these temps...that's just easy. predicting those moderate bands...not easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeesh. Sounds similar to the RGEM, and I think it's drier like last night too, compared to the other guidance. It had a suppression bias last winter, but it (and RGEM) did act as a good cautionary tale on at least one of the events in terms of pulling the trigger on huge totals...I wouldn't weight it too much though if the rest of the guidance is closer clustered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here's your lift Sent from my iPhone This doesn't tell me anything. You need to have the best lift within the dendritic snow growth region... Good spot is in the -8 to -12 layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 UKMET looks fine to me..maybe .5-.6" QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hold the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here is the issue...IAD sounding as of 12. Look how dry... http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hold the line... 12zUKIE24hrsQPF2-16-15.gif What's the panel before that look like, if you happen to have it (or have seen it)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That 850-650 layer is very dry and that is common in arctic air masses. It's going to take more than some light qpf or weak lift to erode the dry air and saturate the column. I think the guidance is picking up on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here is the issue...IAD sounding as of 12. Look how dry... http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.gif Does DCA look better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Does DCA look better? There is no sounding at dca unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Does DCA look better? DCA does not launch any RAOBs...IAD is the only one nearby here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z UKIE meteogram for DCA... 17mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hold the line... 12zUKIE24hrsQPF2-16-15.gif thx Yoda how about the 6 hr. panel before that ending 6Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm hugging whatever models give me the most precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 jeez...Ukmet assassinates DC....about 0.60-0.65" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here is the issue...IAD sounding as of 12. Look how dry... http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.gif Maybe earlier virga could help. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Does DCA look better? DCA doesn't launch sondes. It would look pretty similar though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm hugging whatever models give me the most precip. almost def the UKMET, unless Euro somehow moistens in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z UKIE meteogram for DCA... 18mm PN_D5_TS_TT_P1_UV_UU_VV_METE_1000_Washington.png Man, those 850mb temps take a dip by 12Z on the 19th (as do the 2m temps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Does DCA look better? No official upper air release at DCA but you can look at a model simulated one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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