Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Has there been an update? The one I posted is stale, I just don't think it had been posted yet since it was updated Updated winter storm warning for DC now calling for 6 to 10 inches of snow URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 950 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-504-506-VAZ054-162300- /O.CAN.KLWX.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-150216T1500Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.150216T2300Z-150217T1700Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES- ST. MARYS-CALVERT-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF... ST MARYS CITY...ROCKVILLE...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY... ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH 950 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 pointed that out early but mitch told me to ignore it I've also told people to ignore mebut, that said, I still find the hrrr useless before the event starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Has there been an update? The one I posted is stale, I just don't think it had been posted yet since it was updated Yup, just issued 10 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 From NWS Sterling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 4 - 6" for the worry-warts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's a shame we couldn't get a bit more tilt southwest to northeast on this to bring some of that heavier qpf up this way from eastern VA. Could have been a nice 10-16 inch storm, maybe even slightly more, with the ratios we should get. it's too far out ahead of the h5 trough digging in. The flow is too progressive and too close behind the last storm. That's why I was always rooting for the second wave. This one had a cap on its potential and I'm even a little surprised it got as far north as it did but given the flow the end of the north trend and shift south now doesn't surprise me. The trough is digging nice if this had waited a day it could have been a nice storm that really came up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 4 - 6" for the worry-warts. When State College has WWA just north of the M/D line, you know we're getting fringed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 4 - 6" for the worry-warts. 4-8" for you, but myself 2 miles to your north is 4-6". Tight gradient ftl . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6-10" for me. 0.6" of QPF with temps in the teens can do that to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I smell disappointment from DC north, I think DC gets 4", Baltimore gets 2-3". RAP and RUC are really discouraging. WWA should be posted later for Northern MD. I feared this all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I smell disappointment from DC north, I think DC gets 4", Baltimore gets 2-3". RAP and RUC are really discouraging. WWA should be posted later for Northern MD. I feared this all along The RAP looks fine....I wouldn't put too much stock in RAP/HRRR toward the end of their runs...don't take them too seriously more than 6 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 OT NAM gives us .10"+ qpf on Wednesday night with the PV ...now back to your regularly scheduled weenie programming just imagine what could have been if the stj was still around when that dives in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ughhh rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sharp cutoff DC north on rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Mets: I see a feeder across Cen Texas; is that a moisture feed from off the east Pacific, into our storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm nitpicking here, but there is no such thing as the RUC anymore. perhaps some site never updated its labels when the RAP replaced the RUC a few years ago. I smell disappointment from DC north, I think DC gets 4", Baltimore gets 2-3". RAP and RUC are really discouraging. WWA should be posted later for Northern MD. I feared this all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm nitpicking here, but there is no such thing as the RUC anymore. perhaps some site never updated its labels when the RAP replaced the RUC a few years ago. Coolwx hasn't updated past ruc time, but yea overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12Z GFS has slightly earlier precip around D.C. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021612&time=3&var=APCPI&hour=009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 iwm GFS snowfall maps very similar with a very slight jog south 12Z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021612&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=024 6Z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021606&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z high res rgem. In line with other guidance. hresrgem.JPG That map is definitely discouraging after the past couple of GFS runs. I assume we have a stronger push of cold dry air that is causing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like DCA .5" on GFS. .3" at BWI. Pretty much the same as 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS is .51" for DCA and .35" for BWI dang that cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That map is definitely discouraging after the past couple of GFS runs. I assume we have a stronger push of cold dry air that is causing it? Either we do better with the ratios or the qpf, win win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z RGEM as was mentioned is pretty dry....maybe 0.25 - 0.3 for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS is .51" for DCA and .35" for BWI dang that cutoff Only we go from being too warm all winter to being too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z RGEM as was mentioned is pretty dry....maybe 0.25 - 0.3 for DC I always hate these last minute slices....just feeds on the paranoia for future events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I really do think BWI could get <4" from this storm. I could be badgered by it but my forecasts typically aren't too bad and I feel like I will nail those one. BWI is the only station I'm questioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Only we go from being too warm all winter to being too cold. welp, I looked back at the 2/10/10 bliz and obs at BWI were mod and heavy snow with only .02 and .03 falling if you look at Boston's obs over the weekend once the arctic air filtered back in, they had the same thing, so maybe qpf with these temps aren't as bad as I'm used to thinking http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBOS.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm really not worried here yet. Seems storm is verifying well west and well on the north side. Gotta play with the edge sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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