H2O Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 H-Res looks the same as regular.. sounds like everything is pretty much fine based on qpf amounts. small changes that aren't dramatic shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 so still a good 6-8". my goal is 6", and I should do that with that qpf assuming I can get 1:14 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If GFS come in all wet everyone will scramble to up totals.. LOL! I think high ratios will help, but a more defined area of precip may make the fringed get whiffed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ultimately i think the only real uncertainty left is banding and if we can truly maximize our ratios -- the liquid range is pretty tight at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's a shame we couldn't get a bit more tilt southwest to northeast on this to bring some of that heavier qpf up this way from eastern VA. Could have been a nice 10-16 inch storm, maybe even slightly more, with the ratios we should get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hi-res NAM absolutely smokes the RIC metro. 1.4" bubble right over the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't think I've ever said this before, but to be quite honest, if I break 4 or 5" here I will be satisfied quite a bit and have hope that RIC can pull off double digit totals. They need a storm to remember this side of the decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hires 0.5" along the tip of NW DC. 0.6" along Route 50. Good consensus for DC/Arl/Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sorry, typo***** 4.8"************* going to enjoy storm now what people call for now not relevant thanks peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 we all understand we're talking about shifts on the order of numerical noise, right? 0.01 to 0.10 shifts in most cases... It's painful reading the talk about shifts wrt to this storm at this point. It really is noise and people should no better. If it was 100 miles plus, I'd get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Basically, in the metro regions, it looks like we have front-end snow until 10 or 11pm, and then it transitions to be more closely tied to the low pressure system, with our better rates after midnight. If we can get into the band that generally forms on the NW side, we could maximize our potential. Areas just NW of that may underperform a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 the hi-res windows can be good - the precip verification scores for them are actually pretty good and on par with the 4 km NAM, although they have a very slight wet bias http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores/2015/201501/hiresw.201501.gif they're initialized off of the RAP, so if the RAP is funky, the hi-res windows will be similar. There is definitely something going on in the past 24 hours in the analysis that is leading the RAP to be "healthier" with this system. All of the SREF members initialized off of the RAP are by far the wettest for central and northern MD, and the hi-res windows look similar. I just can't be sure whether it's correct. They're not good for this type of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 sounds like everything is pretty much fine based on qpf amounts. small changes that aren't dramatic shifts all guidance at this point is in a 0.5 to 0.6 range for me and you...except last night's GGEM which is 0.23 and a huge outlier, so useless at this point...I'd be much more worried about GGEM if its little sister hadn't been consistent the last 2 runs.....our MOE is pretty big...even if everything shifts 50 miles to the south/southeast we're still good for 4"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Justin berk's final call. Pretty solid in my opinion. http://www.justinweather.com/site/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/FinalCallFeb16.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Justin berk's final call. Pretty solid in my opinion. http://www.justinweather.com/site/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/FinalCallFeb16.jpg He's probably too bullish but when you don't have any fallout from being wrong and you will still get more FB followers, you have nothing to lose by making an 80th percentile solution your actual map on every single event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Justin berk's final call. Pretty solid in my opinion. http://www.justinweather.com/site/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/FinalCallFeb16.jpg I don't like bashing a person's forecast, but that's terrible. He's never been right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC509 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-504-506-VAZ054-161815-/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.150216T2300Z-150217T1700Z//O.CON.KLWX.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-150216T1500Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...ROCKVILLE...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH509 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THISMORNING......WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENINGTO NOON EST TUESDAY...* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't like bashing a person's forecast, but that's terrible. He's never been right. I'll agree he's busted high quite a few times but during last February's MECS he was spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't like bashing a person's forecast, but that's terrible. He's never been right.[/quote] Well if he's wrong so are a lot of other forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Justin berk's final call. Pretty solid in my opinion. http://www.justinweather.com/site/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/FinalCallFeb16.jpg That looks pretty high to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 OT NAM gives us .10"+ qpf on Wednesday night with the PV ...now back to your regularly scheduled weenie programming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 JB2's forecast is similar to mine after adjusting for the different snow total contours. Not sure why he's getting hate on this forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The RR/HRRR are showing something that the GFS had yesterday. They have the initial lead precip petering out before the low pressure really "takes over". So, there is a period where the radar falls apart and looks like crap. This is just to caution against weenie breakdowns that are inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 JB2's forecast is similar to mine after adjusting for the different snow total contours. Not sure why he's getting hate on this forecast. I don't think there's a chance north of York, PA gets 3"+. Maybe his map isn't "terrible", I just disagree with it. I don't like the guy and I guess I'm taking it out on his map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The RR/HRRR are showing something that the GFS had yesterday. They have the initial lead precip petering out before the low pressure really "takes over". So, there is a period where the radar falls apart and looks like crap. This is just to caution against weenie breakdowns that are inevitable. rad13.gif pointed that out early but mitch told me to ignore it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Justin berk's final call. Pretty solid in my opinion. http://www.justinweather.com/site/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/FinalCallFeb16.jpg Move it 30 miles south and it will look a lot more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 He's probably too bullish but when you don't have any fallout from being wrong and you will still get more FB followers, you have nothing to lose by making an 80th percentile solution your actual map on every single event My wsw is for 6-10 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My wsw is for 6-10 fwiw Has there been an update? The one I posted is stale, I just don't think it had been posted yet since it was updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Updated winter storm warning for DC now calling for 6 to 10 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 JB2's forecast is similar to mine after adjusting for the different snow total contours. Not sure why he's getting hate on this forecast. The only reason he is getting hate i think is, because he has my house right by the 6-10" line. I think 6" is my high end. Imo he should have put a 4-8" zone from just north of Baltimore until BWI and it would have been a reasonable map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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