mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 when was the last time you saw a sounding out of IAD with these numbers the morning before it snows? unheard of http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_uacalplt.cgi?id=KLWX&pl=out3&cu=la&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think you underdid DC a little, high upside potential especially with the Euro and NAM spitting out 0.6" of QPF and more. Everything else looks good. He is also an on-air met in Salisbury, where DC isn't really his main focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 He is also an on-air met in Salisbury, where DC isn't really his main focus. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREFs have been adamant on a high-QPF event all the way past the MD/PA border for several cycles now. Very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll be interested to see if the NAM goes for the RAP idea of bringing the slp to the TN/VA border, then redeveloping it off the coast that would be better for DCA/BWI here's the latest RAP just before it redevelops it http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Frap%2F12%2Frap_namer_017_precip_p01.gif&model=rap&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p01&fhr=017&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150216+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll take the ARW or NMM thank yout very much. Those models are still not backing down with pretty much all of Marland in an 8-12inch+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 based on sim radars thru 15 hrs, 12Z doesn't look quite as robust as 6z, but maybe later hours change some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM tracks and redevelops slp a bit south from 6z. Northern extent and jackpot has shifted a bit south on the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM tracks and redevelops slp a bit south from 6z. Northern extent and jackpot has shifted a bit south on the run. yep, that's what I figured based on sim/rad but the shift, relatively speaking, is small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM tracks and redevelops slp a bit south from 6z. Northern extent and jackpot has shifted a bit south on the run. That is not what I am looking for this close to gametime. There was that event in 12/13 winter that we were supposed to cash in on up here and had a similar end-game shift - with the low transfer robbing moisture on the northern and western fringes. We are close enough up here that these kind of shifts are irritating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still a good event for DC and Baltimore, Rough estimate off snow maps 6 inches for BWI 8 inches for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 QPF for DC is 0.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That is not what I am looking for this close to gametime. There was that event in 12/13 winter that we were supposed to cash in on up here and had a similar end-game shift - with the low transfer robbing moisture on the northern and western fringes. We are close enough up here that these kind of shifts are irritating. Could just be noise. We're in chips fall mode now anyways. There aren't going to be any big surprises at this point. Guidance is tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll take the ARW or NMM thank yout very much. Those models are still not backing down with pretty much all of Marland in an 8-12inch+ event. They're not good for this type of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 QPF for DC is 0.6". Perfect, in line with other guidance. I'm setting my bar at 6 inches. I think a good forecast for DC is 5-9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Could just be noise. We're in chips fall mode now anyways. There aren't going to be any big surprises at this point. Guidance is tight True but with high ratios .10 makes a difference I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 that d@mn votex in SE Canada is killing us....all we need is another 25-50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12Z NAM dropping the .25" and .50" contours slightly south from it's previous 2 runs...to where the .50" line cuts through the District and along route 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12Z NAM dropping the .25" and .50" contours slightly south from it's previous 2 runs...to where the .50" line cuts through the District and along route 50. Unfortunate, hopefully the rest of the 12z suite doesn't follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RIC just got Nam'D 1.25 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 we all understand we're talking about shifts on the order of numerical noise, right? 0.01 to 0.10 shifts in most cases... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12Z NAM dropping the .25" and .50" contours slightly south from it's previous 2 runs...to where the .50" line cuts through the District and along route 50. Models are beginning to take into account the strong strong strong cold dry Siberian airmass over us and may make a few small last second tweaks. I mean, I am 12 degrees with a -9 degree dewpoint along with a steady flow of air from the north at 10-14mph. This is super cold DRY air. Well, whatever I get, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here is my final call folks DCA: 5.9" RIC: 9.0" SBY: 7.5" BWI: 4.8" JiYO: 4.5" OKV: 4.0" OXB (Ocean City): 6.7" EZF: 8.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Models are beginning to concede to the strong strong strong cold dry Siberian airmass over us. and it's the same thing that's going to allow us to maximize a 0.3 to 0.7 QPF storm through above-normal ratios -- it's all one in the same, let's enjoy our cold fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here is my final call folks DCA: 5.9" RIC: 9.0" SBY: 7.5" BWI: 3.8" JiYO: 4.5" OKV: 4.0" OXB (Ocean City): 6.7" EZF: 8.0" 3.8 at bwi would be some really low qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 BWI is .43" and DCA is .55" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 BWI is .43" and DCA is .55" so still a good 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 H-Res looks the same as regular.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 3.8 at bwi would be some really low qpf. Sorry, typo***** 4.8"************* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 and it's the same thing that's going to allow us to maximize a 0.3 to 0.7 QPF storm through above-normal ratios -- it's all one in the same, let's enjoy our cold fluff Got it Chris. I'll enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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