Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm still bullish. Probably thru your area tho someone's going to be unhappy on that edge.. Hopefully people who aren't supposed to be in our sub forum.We've been at this a long time. You a good bit more than me. The northern edge is never set in stone until its done snowing. Your yard is looking like a lock for 6". Double digits is still looking good for someone nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 my latest for DC Proper. https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow Late night update for DC. Start Time - Around 6pmEnd Time - Around 6amPeriod of Heaviest snow - 10pm - 3amTemperature - Upper Teens Storm Total: 5-8" I will give one final update at 1pm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro is 8" for DC factoring in ratios and stuff. Def. higher end of some forecasts, and I personally would go with 5-10" for DC. I'm not too sure what to expect from this storm to be honest. Feels like it could bust easily in a GFS/GGEM scenario....I would like to see double digits, but maybe that is a reach now. I guess 6-8" would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 my latest for DC Proper. https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow Late night update for DC. Start Time - Around 6pm End Time - Around 6am Period of Heaviest snow - 10pm - 3am Temperature - Upper Teens Storm Total: 5-8" I will give one final update at 1pm tomorrow. Good forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 03z SREFs 24 hr QPF map at hr 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 How does that look relative to 21z? I don't look at the SREFS often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 How does that look relative to 21z? I don't look at the SREFS often. a tad drier for me and you but no significant change....I'd expect the Nam to be drier in 20 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Unbelievable. Storm is starting to take shape http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php The entire movable feast is translating slowly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, I'm not getting 10" of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 a tad drier for me and you but no significant change....I'd expect the Nam to be drier in 20 minutes... Heck, I'd be happy with 4". That's kinda my bar, anything below that and I'll be slightly less than content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm getting 4 inches of snow. Take the highest estimates from guidance, chop in half. It works every time. Best thing about the 4 inch amt, it is a climo storm for my part of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hrs 24 and 27 are very nice.... good NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 precip is in W. Kentucky faster than what the 06Z NAM predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll gladly take that NAM run. Start time is only 15hrs away..how wrong can it be? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like 0.65" QPF in DC... that right Zwyts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm sure the MD border folks will still freak out though.Wouldn't you if dca was sitting on the northern fringe of decent qpf needing one more slight nudge north and instead the last two runs either held or if anything sunk south 20 miles. Sometimes it seems like you think were immune from a miss up here but there have been southern sliders that gave dc 6" and mostly nothing up here. One of the analogs popping up from feb 96 is an example where dc got 9" and Manchester 2-3". I am very happy that dc and va look to cash in but at the same time of course I want another 50 mile north move so I can enjoy this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sim radar suggests 0Z to 11Z snow and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hrs 24 and 27 are very nice.... good NAM run I'll gladly take that NAM run. Start time is only 15hrs away..how wrong can it be? Lol. very similar to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like 0.65" QPF in DC... that right Zwyts? yes...looks about right to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1+" p/h rates overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 WPC gung ho/bullish for us re 8 inches of accumulated snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12+" probs from WPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1+" p/h rates overnight USA_ASNOWI1_sfc_025.gif Hi-Res looks a lot like the NAM...gets the 0.25" contour well north of MD line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 WSWarning for entire LWX CWA except for the NW corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 State College has upped amounts to 3-7" for York and Gettysburg -- looking better for our northern MD folks! Nice to see the warning to the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 State College has upped amounts to 3-7" for York and Gettysburg -- looking better for our northern MD folks! Nice to see the warning to the border. every piece of guidance the last 12 hours has trended south a bit. Just brcause nws goes bullish does not make things look better. I would much prefer to have the guidance looking better and nws being bearish. I think nws is relying on the usual last minute north adjustment. Ctp did this a few times last year when I was living in pine grove pa and on the fringe a few times. The results were less then inspiring. It worked out I the feb 3 storm but all the others the famous north adjustment never happened and they busted high on their northern fringe zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 every piece of guidance the last 12 hours has trended south a bit. Just brcause nws goes bullish does not make things look better. I would much prefer to have the guidance looking better and nws being bearish. I think nws is relying on the usual last minute north adjustment. Ctp did this a few times last year when I was living in pine grove pa and on the fringe a few times. The results were less then inspiring. It worked out I the feb 3 storm but all the others the famous north adjustment never happened and they busted high on their northern fringe zone. agree. The modeling carries more weight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Point and click just upped Dale City to 6 to 10 inches. Take the 10 /chop in half/ Go with 5. You can't go wrong, You win EVERY time. I wont sleep at all tonight thru Tuesday. I'll be beside myself with pure joy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC357 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015..SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...TNGT WL BE WHEN THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLS IN THE MID ATLC. BLVTHE 03-09Z TIMEFRAME WL BE WHEN THE HVIEST FALLS...TAPERING OFFQUICKLY IN THE W LATE TNGT/AFTR SUNRISE IN THE E. W/ LOW TRACKINGACROSS THE CAROLINAS THERE WL BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN THECOLUMN...WHICH IS WHY SNOW IS THE ONLY CONCERN. GIVEN HOW COLD THEAIR WL BE LIQUID/SNOW RATIO WL BE HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD10:1...PERHAPS 15:1 OR HIGHER. THE LIMITING FACTOR ON TOTALS WL BETHE SPEED W/ WHICH THE LOW TRANSITS THE RGN.WE ARE FCSTG ARND 8"FM AUGUSTA TO CALVERT...6-8" FM SHENANDOAH TOANNE ARNDEL...5-7" FM GRANT TO HARFORD. THE COUNTIES FM FRED MD TOHARFORD HV BEEN ADDED TO THE WINT STORM WRNG..AS HV JEFFERSON...FRED VA AND GRANT WV. AN ADVSRY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR WRN MD ANDPTNS OF ERN WV COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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