yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:52 PM, zwyts said: jeez...Ukmet assassinates DC....about 0.60-0.65" I feel a lil better... now as long as the EURO is about same... even though its prob not that useful at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:47 PM, yoda said: Hold the line... Yep. UK tightened the gradient as well, with the .25" now at the M/D line (slight southward shift), while bringing the .75 north very close to DCA 12zUKIE24hrsQPF2-16-15.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:52 PM, zwyts said: jeez...Ukmet assassinates DC....about 0.60-0.65" Matt, do you have what it shows for BWI? thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:52 PM, zwyts said: jeez...Ukmet assassinates DC....about 0.60-0.65" Wow. I'm kind of surprised it's holding so consistently the past couple of days (or more?). It's either going to be great, or off. From that plot above from Yoda, and recalling what it looked like before, the precip shield definitely punches a lot more SW to NE. Stronger low, too, I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:52 PM, BTRWx said: Maybe earlier virga could help. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no It would mostly moisten the mid levels a bit. We have northerly flow at the lower levels which is on the dry side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:49 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: What's the panel before that look like, if you happen to have it (or have seen it)? UKIE QPF at hr 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:52 PM, Ian said: I'm hugging whatever models give me the most precip. I like your call earlier that the northern edge is doing well west of here. Lexington and Cincy are doing fine right now. It might be close for some of us up this way, but I think we end up doing ok, especially if we keep our bar set at a reasonable height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:49 PM, ers-wxman1 said: That 850-650 layer is very dry and that is common in arctic air masses. It's going to take more than some light qpf or weak lift to erode the dry air and saturate the column. I think the guidance is picking up on this. it moistens quickly over the next few hours despite the inialization (RAP) looking a lot like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:57 PM, zwyts said: it moistens quickly over the next few hours despite the inialization (RAP) looking a lot like that That would be good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 20mm close to DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 As WxMan1 pointed out above... the 0.75" QPF line is pretty close to DC on this run of the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:54 PM, mitchnick said: Matt, do you have what it shows for BWI? thx sorry...using meteograms which are only for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:46 PM, PraetorianGuard said: UKMET looks fine to me..maybe .5-.6" QPF? That's what it looked like to me eyeballing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:56 PM, yoda said: UKIE QPF at hr 18 12zUKIE18hrsQPF2-16-15.gif Thanks. Definitely held the line, and very consistent for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Its like 0.7" of QPF for me in N. Arlington..... Wow. So consistent, too, you can't discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For BWI ukmet looks like nearly 15mm so about .55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:59 PM, PraetorianGuard said: 20mm close to DCA If this ends up being true or even really close to true, I think everyone would be happy and feel relieved some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I want to thank everyone who posted UKMet maps and qpf numbers along with all the bloody Englishmen (and women) responsible for the UKMet qpf numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:47 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Here is the issue...IAD sounding as of 12. Look how dry... http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.gif So I know there's been discussion regarding how well the models truly capture that dry air and account for virga etc. Along those lines, is it reasonable to compare the recent model generated skew-T's to the real radiosonde data and then draw conclusions about how well the dry air has been taken into consideration? i.e. whether the dry air that's present was well-modeled or if it is a "surprise" to the computers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 5:00 PM, Mikethemanatee said: Its like 0.7" of QPF for me in N. Arlington..... Wow. So consistent, too, you can't discount it. although I heard it might not be useful at this range seeing the Euro stay moist would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 5:02 PM, dukeblue219 said: So I know there's been discussion regarding how well the models truly capture that dry air and account for virga etc. Along those lines, is it reasonable to compare the recent model generated skew-T's to the real radiosonde data and then draw conclusions about how well the dry air has been taken into consideration? i.e. whether the dry air that's present was well-modeled or if it is a "surprise" to the computers? Only way to find out is to take initial condition through the column in the real atmosphere and compare to what the model predicted or initialized with. Would have to watch the progression through the day of how well the column moistens versus how the model is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So we've got the GGEM on one end and the Ukie on the other. Quite a range, especially to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 5:02 PM, dukeblue219 said: So I know there's been discussion regarding how well the models truly capture that dry air and account for virga etc. Along those lines, is it reasonable to compare the recent model generated skew-T's to the real radiosonde data and then draw conclusions about how well the dry air has been taken into consideration? i.e. whether the dry air that's present was well-modeled or if it is a "surprise" to the computers? It's being initialized well, and it moistens quickly over the next 6 hours...keep in mind that that was a 12z sounding for IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Terrain in our area makes things tricky. We can downslope with certain wind directions which at the lower levels can create a drying effect. It's small but can make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 5:06 PM, zwyts said: It's being initialized well, and it moistens quickly over the next 6 hours...keep in mind that that was a 12z sounding for IAD RAP_255_2015021615_F00_39.0000N_77.0000W.png That's a pretty decent sounding... It does show a bit of top down moistening above H7 vs what was shown at KIAD at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is a little early in terms of moisture getting here and the sounding gets a little "worse" as we get to 10pm-1am, but this sounding would be sick for snow growth if we could maintain something similar later in the evening 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 5:07 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Terrain in our area makes things tricky. We can downslope with certain wind directions which at the lower levels can create a drying effect. It's small but can make a difference.our winds will be from the east and northeast with the retreating high to our north/northeast and storm to our south so no problem there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 BUFKIT is a very useful software for sounding analysis. We have them in the forecast offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 5:11 PM, ers-wxman1 said: BUFKIT is a very useful software for sounding analysis. We have them in the forecast offices. what kind of ratios is it suggesting for 3z-9z?...15:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 5:10 PM, zwyts said: This is a little early in terms of moisture getting here and the sounding gets a little "worse" as we get to 10pm-1am, but this sounding would be sick for snow growth if we could maintain something similar later in the evening 7pm GFS_3_2015021612_F12_39.0000N_77.0000W.png That would be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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