John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 35 with a dew point of 32 here in Huntsville. Not looking like we are going to see anything frozen. Wonder if you guys manage anything on the back side? OHX is saying their southern areas could still get 1-3 inches this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Only change for me is the temp finally ticked up a degree. Still heavy sleet/light snow mixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Scratch that. I went out the front and the car and road are ice with some sleet on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Scratch that. I went out the front and the car and road are ice with some sleet on top. Pretty impressive sleet storm with some zr and snow mixing in at times. Some of the pellets are large. This is pretty awesome. Roads in my neighborhood seem mostly wet at the moment but I imagine they are about to get very very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Keep us updated. Your area I would be very interested in...just to see what happens when this precip falls into dry air. Just FYI, I dropped back down to about where I started. Sitting at 33 degrees with light to moderate rain. So around a 5 degree drop. Areas very near me are reporting icing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 40 corridor is seeing temps on the rise. Nashville is up to 30, Crossville 29. Areas along the Ky border seem to be maintaining lower 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Another shot from Paris via my cousin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW VA...WRN NC...ERN TN...WRN SC...NERN GA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 161705Z - 162300Z SUMMARY...AREAS OF WINTER MIXED PRECIP WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN NC...WRN SC...AND NERN GA. DISCUSSION...PLAN-VIEW DEPICTION OF 1.5-KM-AGL VWP DATA INDICATES A LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. RELATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE APPROACH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE W...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EWD TRANSLATION OF STRONGER POLEWARD MASS FLUXES ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ. MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SRN/ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS AN ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS PRECEDING THE SFC LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT INVERTED TROUGH -- CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES INTO THE AFTERNOON. SFC OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT THE RESIDUAL COLD WEDGE OVER THE PIEDMONT...CHARACTERIZED BY SUB-0-C SFC TEMPERATURES. THIS AIR IS ALSO VERY DRY...AS INDICATED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0C. RELATED WET-BULB COOLING AND UPSLOPE-FLOW-FORCED ADIABATIC COOLING WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AS THIS LOW-THETA-E AIR IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...WITH WARMING ALOFT OWING TO WAA ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ...A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL LIKELY ENSUE ACROSS THE REGION. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM PARTS OF NERN GA INTO SERN TN...WRN SC...AND WRN NC. SLEET AND THEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH NNEWD DISPLACEMENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA OWING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYERS -- YIELDING INCOMPLETE OR THE ABSENCE OF MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION RATES...FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY LOCALLY REACH 0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR...WITH SLEET RATES LOCALLY REACHING 0.15-0.30 INCH PER HOUR...AND LOCAL SNOW RATES AROUND 1.0-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THE AFOREMENTIONED SLEET/FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL ICING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF SWRN NC...WRN SC...AND NERN GA...WHERE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SFC LAYERS WILL LINGER -- AIDED BY THE INFLUX OF DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST AND RELATED WET-BULB EFFECTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waltrip Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Temp has climbed to 27.8. Cloudy with no precip at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snow picking up a bit in east Kingsport, temp down to 24. Roads covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The northeast wind is still very noticeable as the snow is still falling slanted from the east. You can see some small drifting of the snow that has fallen. I would guess that just over an 1/2 inch has fallen. Temp is not budging at all. Stuck at 21. Here is the latest HRRR. SWVA gets plastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW VA...WRN NC...ERN TN...WRN SC...NERN GA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 161705Z - 162300Z SUMMARY...AREAS OF WINTER MIXED PRECIP WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN NC...WRN SC...AND NERN GA. DISCUSSION...PLAN-VIEW DEPICTION OF 1.5-KM-AGL VWP DATA INDICATES A LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. RELATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE APPROACH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE W...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EWD TRANSLATION OF STRONGER POLEWARD MASS FLUXES ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ. MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SRN/ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS AN ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS PRECEDING THE SFC LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT INVERTED TROUGH -- CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES INTO THE AFTERNOON. SFC OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT THE RESIDUAL COLD WEDGE OVER THE PIEDMONT...CHARACTERIZED BY SUB-0-C SFC TEMPERATURES. THIS AIR IS ALSO VERY DRY...AS INDICATED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0C. RELATED WET-BULB COOLING AND UPSLOPE-FLOW-FORCED ADIABATIC COOLING WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AS THIS LOW-THETA-E AIR IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...WITH WARMING ALOFT OWING TO WAA ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ...A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL LIKELY ENSUE ACROSS THE REGION. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM PARTS OF NERN GA INTO SERN TN...WRN SC...AND WRN NC. SLEET AND THEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH NNEWD DISPLACEMENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA OWING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYERS -- YIELDING INCOMPLETE OR THE ABSENCE OF MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION RATES...FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY LOCALLY REACH 0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR...WITH SLEET RATES LOCALLY REACHING 0.15-0.30 INCH PER HOUR...AND LOCAL SNOW RATES AROUND 1.0-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THE AFOREMENTIONED SLEET/FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL ICING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF SWRN NC...WRN SC...AND NERN GA...WHERE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SFC LAYERS WILL LINGER -- AIDED BY THE INFLUX OF DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST AND RELATED WET-BULB EFFECTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. Some of the earliest clown maps hinted that the warm nose was going to hug the very western side of the apps like that, rather then funneling up and expanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow...what a gradient on that map! Just a few miles between 1 inch and 14 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is it just me, or is it not getting near as warm as it was supposed to be in the southern valley? I feel like we could switch here at any moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is it just me, or is it not getting near as warm as it was supposed to be in the southern valley? I feel like we could switch here at any moment I hope so buddy. I've actually dropped a degree here in Knoxville, down to 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Back to some snow now. Seems like areas due west and due east of me are getting mostly snow, while I'm getting mostly sleet with some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Really starting to fill in throughout the eastern Valley. Echoes are increasing and rates should get heavier from here through the remainder of the evening. I'm still only getting light snow, but I don't expect the heaviest stuff to hit until after 3 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The northeast wind is still very noticeable as the snow is still falling slanted from the east. You can see some small drifting of the snow that has fallen. I would guess that just over an 1/2 inch has fallen. Temp is not budging at all. Stuck at 21. Here is the latest HRRR. SWVA gets plastered. I wonder if this map is slightly over doing the temps, don't we have confirmed sleet or snow in Washington county tn, Johnson city? Other then that issue, It looks pretty spot on imho, especially laid against the earlier clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM is to far east with the system,so it's wrong.Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 about a 10th of an inch glaze now down this way. Still coming down temp at 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Guys I've got all moderate to heavy snow here. I'm not exactly in Morristown-I live NE of town on a ridge, but it has really been coming down hard here for the last ten minutes with hardly any sleet at all. Temp is 21 actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I wonder if this map is slightly over doing the temps, don't we have confirmed sleet or snow in Washington county tn, Johnson city? Other then that issue, It looks pretty spot on imho, especially laid against the earlier clown maps It very well may be doing that. The precip type maps from that model have most everyone in NETN as snow for a few more hours and then it works the rain/warm nose up the eastern valley to Johnson City. Going to come down to looking at radar and temps at our own houses. Model time is out the window really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Temp went back down from 23 to 22. Still mostly sleet with some snow. Maybe a combined 1/2-3/4th inch on the ground so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I wonder if this map is slightly over doing the temps, don't we have confirmed sleet or snow in Washington county tn, Johnson city? Other then that issue, It looks pretty spot on imho, especially laid against the earlier clown maps I don't know. Nothing in JC now. Haven't seen a flake or speck of moisture in over an hour. Radars show snow, but absolutely nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is it just me, or is it not getting near as warm as it was supposed to be in the southern valley? I feel like we could switch here at any moment We are done...wet bulb is just over 32 now...Sorry...perhaps brief ending as snow as a consolation prize....( I am in Chatt for those who did not know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A moderate to heavy mix of sleet and zr falling 3 miles east of Kingston (1/2 mile off of I-40). My back porch is ice...the road in front of my house appears to be ice. I have seen one car in the last few minutes and it was moving very slowly. Temp here is 26 and has not budged since I got up this morning. I haven't seen any snow mixing in yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Mostly ZR on me right now. Driveway is ass busting slick. Roads are starting to glaze up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Now back to heavy sleet haha. Can't make up it's mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It very well may be doing that. The precip type maps from that model have most everyone in NETN as snow for a few more hours and then it works the rain/warm nose up the eastern valley to Johnson City. Going to come down to looking at radar and temps at our own houses. Model time is out the window really. 1234, boy are we close in gate city if those maps are correct...I'd rather be in Fort Blackmoore (can't say I've said that often) lol. But per those maps we'd be in for a good time if the nose doesn't go west by 15 miles or north by 15 miles EDIT: also known as Northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just had a co-worker arrive in Chatt from Knoxville...said roads were getting bad north of Athens and he almost had to stop to get the ice off the wipers...car thermometer moved above freezing in Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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