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Feb. 16-17 Winter Storm Obs Thread


Blue Ridge

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Scratch that. I went out the front and the car and road are ice with some sleet on top.

 

Pretty impressive sleet storm with some zr and snow mixing in at times.  Some of the pellets are large.  This is pretty awesome.  Roads in my neighborhood seem mostly wet at the moment but I imagine they are about to get very very bad.

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mcd0071.gifMESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW VA...WRN NC...ERN TN...WRN SC...NERN
   GA

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

   VALID 161705Z - 162300Z

   SUMMARY...AREAS OF WINTER MIXED PRECIP WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL
   ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN NC...WRN SC...AND NERN
   GA.

   DISCUSSION...PLAN-VIEW DEPICTION OF 1.5-KM-AGL VWP DATA INDICATES A
   LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
   RELATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE APPROACH OF
   WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE W...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
   EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EWD TRANSLATION OF STRONGER POLEWARD
   MASS FLUXES ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ. MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE
   FLOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SRN/ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS AN
   ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS PRECEDING THE SFC LOW AND ITS
   ATTENDANT INVERTED TROUGH -- CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER LOWER MS
   VALLEY. THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES INTO THE
   AFTERNOON.

   SFC OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT THE RESIDUAL COLD WEDGE OVER THE
   PIEDMONT...CHARACTERIZED BY SUB-0-C SFC TEMPERATURES. THIS AIR IS
   ALSO VERY DRY...AS INDICATED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
   AND BELOW 0C. RELATED WET-BULB COOLING AND UPSLOPE-FLOW-FORCED
   ADIABATIC COOLING WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
   CONDITIONS FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AS THIS LOW-THETA-E AIR IS
   TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

   HOWEVER...WITH WARMING ALOFT OWING TO WAA ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ...A
   VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL LIKELY ENSUE ACROSS THE REGION.
   FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM PARTS OF NERN GA INTO SERN
   TN...WRN SC...AND WRN NC. SLEET AND THEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
   BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH NNEWD DISPLACEMENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA
   OWING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYERS -- YIELDING
   INCOMPLETE OR THE ABSENCE OF MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS.

   REGARDING PRECIPITATION RATES...FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY LOCALLY
   REACH 0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR...WITH SLEET RATES LOCALLY REACHING
   0.15-0.30 INCH PER HOUR...AND LOCAL SNOW RATES AROUND 1.0-1.5 INCHES
   PER HOUR. THE AFOREMENTIONED SLEET/FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL ICING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS
   OF SWRN NC...WRN SC...AND NERN GA...WHERE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SFC
   LAYERS WILL LINGER -- AIDED BY THE INFLUX OF DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE
   EAST AND RELATED WET-BULB EFFECTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

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The northeast wind is still very noticeable as the snow is still falling slanted from the east. You can see some small drifting of the snow that has fallen. I would guess that just over an 1/2 inch has fallen. Temp is not budging at all. Stuck at 21.

Here is the latest HRRR. SWVA gets plastered.

2ea1636625501124ad08c0b0949252af.jpg

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mcd0071.gifMESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   1105 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW VA...WRN NC...ERN TN...WRN SC...NERN

   GA

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

   VALID 161705Z - 162300Z

   SUMMARY...AREAS OF WINTER MIXED PRECIP WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE SRN

   APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL

   ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN NC...WRN SC...AND NERN

   GA.

   DISCUSSION...PLAN-VIEW DEPICTION OF 1.5-KM-AGL VWP DATA INDICATES A

   LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

   RELATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE APPROACH OF

   WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE W...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING

   EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EWD TRANSLATION OF STRONGER POLEWARD

   MASS FLUXES ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ. MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE

   FLOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SRN/ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS AN

   ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS PRECEDING THE SFC LOW AND ITS

   ATTENDANT INVERTED TROUGH -- CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER LOWER MS

   VALLEY. THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES INTO THE

   AFTERNOON.

   SFC OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT THE RESIDUAL COLD WEDGE OVER THE

   PIEDMONT...CHARACTERIZED BY SUB-0-C SFC TEMPERATURES. THIS AIR IS

   ALSO VERY DRY...AS INDICATED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE

   AND BELOW 0C. RELATED WET-BULB COOLING AND UPSLOPE-FLOW-FORCED

   ADIABATIC COOLING WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD LOWER TROPOSPHERIC

   CONDITIONS FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AS THIS LOW-THETA-E AIR IS

   TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

   HOWEVER...WITH WARMING ALOFT OWING TO WAA ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ...A

   VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL LIKELY ENSUE ACROSS THE REGION.

   FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM PARTS OF NERN GA INTO SERN

   TN...WRN SC...AND WRN NC. SLEET AND THEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL

   BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH NNEWD DISPLACEMENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA

   OWING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYERS -- YIELDING

   INCOMPLETE OR THE ABSENCE OF MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS.

   REGARDING PRECIPITATION RATES...FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY LOCALLY

   REACH 0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR...WITH SLEET RATES LOCALLY REACHING

   0.15-0.30 INCH PER HOUR...AND LOCAL SNOW RATES AROUND 1.0-1.5 INCHES

   PER HOUR. THE AFOREMENTIONED SLEET/FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL HAVE THE

   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL ICING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS

   OF SWRN NC...WRN SC...AND NERN GA...WHERE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SFC

   LAYERS WILL LINGER -- AIDED BY THE INFLUX OF DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE

   EAST AND RELATED WET-BULB EFFECTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION

   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

 

 

Some of the earliest clown maps hinted that the warm nose was going to hug the very western side of the apps like that, rather then funneling up and expanding. 

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The northeast wind is still very noticeable as the snow is still falling slanted from the east. You can see some small drifting of the snow that has fallen. I would guess that just over an 1/2 inch has fallen. Temp is not budging at all. Stuck at 21.

Here is the latest HRRR. SWVA gets plastered.

2ea1636625501124ad08c0b0949252af.jpg

 

I wonder if this map is slightly over doing the temps, don't we have confirmed sleet or snow in Washington county tn, Johnson city?  Other then that issue, It looks pretty spot on imho, especially laid against the earlier clown maps

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I wonder if this map is slightly over doing the temps, don't we have confirmed sleet or snow in Washington county tn, Johnson city? Other then that issue, It looks pretty spot on imho, especially laid against the earlier clown maps

It very well may be doing that. The precip type maps from that model have most everyone in NETN as snow for a few more hours and then it works the rain/warm nose up the eastern valley to Johnson City. Going to come down to looking at radar and temps at our own houses. Model time is out the window really.

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I wonder if this map is slightly over doing the temps, don't we have confirmed sleet or snow in Washington county tn, Johnson city?  Other then that issue, It looks pretty spot on imho, especially laid against the earlier clown maps

 

I don't know. Nothing in JC now. Haven't seen a flake or speck of moisture in over an hour. Radars show snow, but absolutely nothing.

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Is it just me, or is it not getting near as warm as it was supposed to be in the southern valley? I feel like we could switch here at any moment

We are done...wet bulb is just over 32 now...Sorry...perhaps brief ending as snow as a consolation prize....( I am in Chatt for those who did not know)

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A moderate to heavy mix of sleet and zr falling 3 miles east of Kingston (1/2 mile off of I-40).  My back porch is ice...the road in front of my house appears to be ice.  I have seen one car in the last few minutes and it was moving very slowly.  Temp here is 26 and has not budged since I got up this morning.  I haven't seen any snow mixing in yet though.

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It very well may be doing that. The precip type maps from that model have most everyone in NETN as snow for a few more hours and then it works the rain/warm nose up the eastern valley to Johnson City. Going to come down to looking at radar and temps at our own houses. Model time is out the window really.

 

1234, boy are we close in gate city if those maps are correct...I'd rather be in Fort Blackmoore (can't say I've said that often) lol.  But per those maps we'd be in for a good time if the nose doesn't go west by 15 miles or north by 15 miles

 

EDIT: also known as Northwest

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