Blue Ridge Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 ZR in Crossville at 22/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Check that. Now it is sleeting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I've switched over to mostly snow with some sleet. I hope business picks up in the snow department. Heavier returns are lurking just to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A few sporadic flakes falling here in Johnson City. It begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waltrip Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Temp is 24 with a dew point of 9 here in Greeneville. I'm afraid that warm nose will get us in Greene County...always a pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I've switched over to mostly snow with some sleet. I hope business picks up in the snow department. Heavier returns are lurking just to my west. Great to hear. You have a lot of heavy returns(I am sure you know that) to you west. Should switch that to snow for a bit. Keep us updated. Temp is 24 with a dew point of 9 here in Greeneville. I'm afraid that warm nose will get us in Greene County...always a pain. I bet sleet and ice is in the cards for you all. But w/ John switching over to snow, there is still hope. Great to see you posting on the board again, man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hope yall get hammered over this way fellas! Good luck today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I guess the heavier returns managed to cool the column for now and allow the change over. I noticed it started as sleet/zr in a lot of places in Kentucky and Clarksville too but they've switched to snow. Hopefully we can all get in on several hours of it. Per TDOT where the freezing rain has fallen roads are near impassable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Fine sleet in west Knoxville has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think Morristown nailed the warm nose with their ice map. I can recall warm nose events like this where the flow is very SW to NE. In that set up where its not S to N, warming occurs more along the eastern side of the valley closest to the mountains. If you live N of Chatt about 40 miles and center the valley (east west center) and west closer to the Plateau, you won't likely get the benefit of surface warming enough to switch to actual rain. Red arrow the trajectory of the warm nose in relation to the wall that the plateau creates with this trajectory. A wedge effect so to speak in the shadow of the damming of the plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Temp is 24 with a dew point of 9 here in Greeneville. I'm afraid that warm nose will get us in Greene County...always a pain. Great to hear from you, man. Greene County is more often than not the battlezone for a warm nose. Dec. 2009 comes to mind as a prime example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not feeling great about my chances slightly north of gate city, starting as a light snow/sleet mix...sleet's going to kill my snow I am afraid, but it's pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nickel and dime flakes are now falling. With the temps I don't expect flakes to get any larger, I just want to see them get much thicker. All surfaces are coated and the roads are especially awful due to that 20 minutes of freezing rain at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The wind hear is brisk out of the northeast. I have not idea what it is at 5k'. However, seems to imply that low level cold air is funneling southeast along the valley. IMO, this is an ice storm set-up. Warm air aloft is pushing northeast and underneath cold air is entrenched. Good luck to everyone. Met1985, maybe some will sneak over the crest of the Apps your way! You know your time will come. Elevation matters in spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not feeling great about my chances slightly north of gate city, starting as a light snow/sleet mix...sleet's going to kill my snow I am afraid, but it's pretty That's actually a positive, tells me that your column is already cool enough to be snow once the precip begins in earnest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not feeling great about my chances slightly north of gate city, starting as a light snow/sleet mix...sleet's going to kill my snow I am afraid, but it's pretty The returns out west of us are stout. They will cool the air column and a period of snow will occur IMO. Your spot should be money. Enjoy. What city are you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nickel and dime flakes are now falling. With the temps I don't expect flakes to get any larger, I just want to see them get much thicker. All surfaces are coated and the roads are especially awful due to that 20 minutes of freezing rain at the onset. Great to hear. Since we are downstream, helps to know that. Still sleeting lightly here w/ a breeze out of the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waltrip Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Great to hear from you, man. Greene County is more often than not the battlezone for a warm nose. Dec. 2009 comes to mind as a prime example. Greene County is the last line of defense against the warm nose for the rest of TRI. A few miles has been the difference between a dusting and 5 or 6 inch snows many times within the county. Up to 25 degrees here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Light Sleet here at the house. Temp is 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 The wind hear is brisk out of the northeast. I have not idea what it is at 5k'. However, seems to imply that low level cold air is funneling southeast along the valley. IMO, this is an ice storm set-up. Warm air aloft is pushing northeast and underneath cold air is entrenched. Good luck to everyone. Met1985, maybe some will sneak over the crest of the Apps your way! You know your time will come. Elevation matters in spring! Seeing a northeast wind here as well. Has a bite to it. 26/6 for a wet bulb of 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Do you guys think that the models (HRRR and RAP) are over doing the warm nose? It has surface temps getting above freezing all the way to TRI if I am looking at them correctly. Looks like very heavy moisture will be coming through the area at the same time. Have a hard time believing it will all be rain this far north. But maybe that is wishful thinking. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just saw some pictures from just west of me in Oneida, heavy snow with big quarter sized flakes falling there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Do you guys think that the models (HRRR and RAP) are over doing the warm nose? It has surface temps getting above freezing all the way to TRI if I am looking at them correctly. Looks like very heavy moisture will be coming through the area at the same time. Have a hard time believing it will all be rain this far north. But maybe that is wishful thinking. Thoughts? Most models do not do well w/ the northern Valley. Once the heavy rates hit here w/ dewpoints in basement...should be tough for the temps to rise. The NAM has done pretty well w/ this as well. It also rams the warmnose up the Valley, but rates push it south. But really, who knows? You all live here. You know how fickle this area is too forecast. So many microclimates. The northeast wind is good. That baby switches to the southwest, then we have problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Most models do not do well w/ the northern Valley. Once the heavy rates hit here w/ dewpoints in basement...should be tough for the temps to rise. The NAM has done pretty well w/ this as well. It also rams the warmnose up the Valley, but rates push it south. But really, who knows? You all live here. You know how fickle this area is too forecast. So many microclimates. The northeast wind is good. That baby switches to the southwest, then we have problems. I agree dewpoints are going to play the most critical role. When dewpoints are as low as they are even down to Chatt... Temps just won't be able to climb like that at the surface. IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Window rattling sleet shower passing by, about 50/50 sleet and snow mixed it seems. Temp is holding steady at 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nickel and dime flakes are now falling. With the temps I don't expect flakes to get any larger, I just want to see them get much thicker. All surfaces are coated and the roads are especially awful due to that 20 minutes of freezing rain at the onset. John, I am hoping heavier rates around noon will switch it fully to snow, but man I am so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Most models do not do well w/ the northern Valley. Once the heavy rates hit here w/ dewpoints in basement...should be tough for the temps to rise. The NAM has done pretty well w/ this as well. It also rams the warmnose up the Valley, but rates push it south. But really, who knows? You all live here. You know how fickle this area is too forecast. So many microclimates. The northeast wind is good. That baby switches to the southwest, then we have problems. I agree dewpoints are going to play the most critical role. When dewpoints are as low as they are even down to Chatt... Temps just won't be able to climb like that at the surface. IMHO Thanks for the responses and explanations guys. This makes me feel a little bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I have noticed when there is such a big difference in temps vs dew points that it is going to be difficult to get that much warming that far north...The Valley is always tricky but I think it will stay below freezing well down to Athens or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Do you guys think that the models (HRRR and RAP) are over doing the warm nose? It has surface temps getting above freezing all the way to TRI if I am looking at them correctly. Looks like very heavy moisture will be coming through the area at the same time. Have a hard time believing it will all be rain this far north. But maybe that is wishful thinking. Thoughts? I wouldn't feel great in JC although some of the in house models don't have the nose going all the way up there till later. But a lot of prior runs have the warm nose running on an axis that affects JC. I would be surprised if you are rain at all today but I doubt much snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like a narly band heading through hancock county tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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