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February 16th - February 17th Snow/Ice Storm OBS


superjames1992

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38.4 and rain to start the event here in Marietta.  The WWA is serious with this storm. Good luck downstream....

 

 A continued SE wind would mean no wetbulbing back to 32 for much of the ATL area since WAA would easily win. Look how fast the dp's rose before the precip. reached the ground. I'm expecting that WAA to continue. I doubt it will cool back to any colder than 35 in your area and it may even hardly cool back at all. WAA ftw if one doesn't like ZR.

The low is tracking way too far north (despite my earlier expectations) to allow the CAD to hold in the ATL area.

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 A continued SE wind would mean no wetbulbing back to 32 for much of the ATL area since WAA would easily win. Look how fast the dp's rose before the precip. reached the ground. I'm expecting that WAA to continue. I doubt it will cool back to any colder than 35 in your area and it may even hardly cool back at all. WAA ftw if one doesn't like ZR.

 

Yes, DP was near 0 before I went to bed and temps were below freezing.  The DP's spiked and the temp slowly rose over a few hours and killed frozen precip chances here.

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 A continued SE wind would mean no wetbulbing back to 32 for much of the ATL area since WAA would easily win. Look how fast the dp's rose before the precip. reached the ground. I'm expecting that WAA to continue. I doubt it will cool back to any colder than 35 in your area and it may even hardly cool back at all. WAA ftw if one doesn't like ZR.

waa from 950mb down which has lead to above freezing temps at that level spell rain for areas south and west of gainesville. However from gainesville east temps at 950mb to the surface are cold so i expect places like gainesville to drop below freezing where they are 34 over 14 with rain just starting. what's frustrating for me is i think this initial precip is going to miss me by 1 or less county. I'm currently only 35 over 12 and would drop below freezing i'm sure if it did thanks to those cold temps just above the surface.

 

So likely will end up with 32.5 and rain here.

 

the system beyond 96 hours would sure take the sting away from this one since it is is showing a major event right beyond 96 hours with plenty of cold air..but i'm sure it will end up in the great lakes given the trends this year.

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Yes, DP was near 0 before I went to bed and temps were below freezing.  The DP's spiked and the temp slowly rose over a few hours and killed frozen precip chances here.

 

The differences in the results from a SE wind and an E wind can mean an amazing difference in N GA. Any wedging is essentially losing the battle where the winds go SE. It can't compete with a low track that is surprisingly taking that very rare track (with CAD present) west to east across central AL/GA. IF NC still ends up with a widespread major winter storm, it will be a first with this kind of low track since at least 1950.

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The differences in the results from a SE wind and an E wind can mean an amazing difference in N GA. Any wedging is essentially losing the battle where the winds go SE. It can't compete with a low track that is surprisingly taking that very rare track (with CAD present) west to east across central AL/GA. IF NC still ends up with a widespread major winter storm, it will be a first with this kind of low track since at least 1950.

yep. As soon as the winds shifted southeast in atlanta dps and temps shot up this morning. they are easterly from gainesville to athens. will be interesting to see where the dividing line ends up.

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The differences in the results from a SE wind and an E wind can mean an amazing difference in N GA. Any wedging is essentially losing the battle where the winds go SE. It can't compete with a low track that is surprisingly taking that very rare track (with CAD present) west to east across central AL/GA. IF NC still ends up with a widespread major winter storm, it will be a first with this kind of low track since at least 1950.

 

I don't see a major ice storm for NC (light to some moderate in spots).  Precip duration not long enough / not enough total precip

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34/3 now. Precip an hour or two away!?

I'm thinking 3:00ish. Here is the newest update from GSP NWS for the timing:

 

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIDDLE TO LATE

  AFTERNOON...FALLING AS A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW. LIGHT

  ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN

  OCCURS DURING THE EVENING. THE HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE

  TO JUST RAIN IN SOUTHERN AREAS BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

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Underground Radar has returns getting into the SW most upstate right now.

 

 

I'm thinking 3:00ish. Here is the newest update from GSP NWS for the timing:

 

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIDDLE TO LATE
  AFTERNOON...FALLING AS A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW. LIGHT
  ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
  OCCURS DURING THE EVENING. THE HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE
  TO JUST RAIN IN SOUTHERN AREAS BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1006 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...

.ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF US.
A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTH...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPAND INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
SLEET THIS EVENING INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.

SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...DANBURY...EDEN...YANCEYVILLE...
YADKINVILLE...MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...SOUTH BOSTON
1006 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO NOON EST TUESDAY MAINLY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG
  WITH AN INCH OR LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLEET.

* LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SOME SLEET.

* TIMING...SNOW SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
  AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SLEET WILL BE
  THIS EVENING. HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FROM DUSK UNTIL A FEW
  HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

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We're at 33 degrees with some light rain falling now......dewpoint is still in the low 20s.  If had to make a guess, the dividing line in NE Georgia is probably going to set up somewhere along the NE part of Gwinnett County like it usually does.  Lawrenceville had a temp of 36 with a DP of 21 as of 11 AM.

 

- Buck

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